ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[South Texas Storms]

is the big slug of moisture and heavy rain south of lake charles right now going to spread across texas tomorrow?

[brunota2003]

The 3 am flight will be departing earlier than scheduled due to the radar failure on AF303


AF Reserve Hurricane Hunters This
page is the official page of the 53rd WRS "Hurricane Hunters." Check
here for the most accurate info about what we are doing. Next mission
will be heading out ahead of schedule due to a radar malfunction on an
earlier mission.
4 seconds ago

[I-wall]

Look at this IR satellite. Bizzare. This is a new one on me. And if anyone thinks this can intensify with a structure like that, I'd love to hear why...



Not to mention, look out on the Texas coast if that convective blast arrives intact!

Wouldnt the lower-than-normal pressure help it strengthen?

[RachelAnna]

Almost a foot forecasted off the upper Texas coast through Sunday.

how much do you think we can expect here in san antonio?

THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS FROM ALEX FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE
MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3
TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED SOUTH OF A DEL RIO TO SAN ANTONIO TO CUERO LINE. WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STRONGER WINDS
GUSTS COULD OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN SQUALL LINES. HOWEVER MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT PATH AND SPEED OF ALEX...THEREFORE
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE FORECAST TRACK OF ALEX OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

From:

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... er+Outlook

Basically we'll get the rain we need...and more.

[Kingarabian]

Look at this IR satellite. Bizzare. This is a new one on me. And if anyone thinks this can intensify with a structure like that, I'd love to hear why...



Not to mention, look out on the Texas coast if that convective blast arrives intact!

Wouldnt the lower-than-normal pressure help it strengthen?

Its a pretty big system. If it was smaller it could go through RI a bit faster.

[bahamaswx]

Look at this IR satellite. Bizzare. This is a new one on me. And if anyone thinks this can intensify with a structure like that, I'd love to hear why...



Not to mention, look out on the Texas coast if that convective blast arrives intact!

Wouldnt the lower-than-normal pressure help it strengthen?

Only if the winds hadn't caught up to it yet. But that doesn't seem to be the case.

[ozonepete]

Look at this IR satellite. Bizzare. This is a new one on me. And if anyone thinks this can intensify with a structure like that, I'd love to hear why...



Not to mention, look out on the Texas coast if that convective blast arrives intact!

Wouldnt the lower-than-normal pressure help it strengthen?

No. The pressure is lower than normal because all of the pressures in the Gulf region are lower than normal right now due in part to unusually warm water temperatures this season. So 980mb looks low compared to a normal background of 1000mb, but not so low compared to a current background of 990mb.

[thetruesms]

Microwave shows considerably better inner structure than earlier today


Of course, now I'm back, so we can expect that to fall apart

[Ptarmigan]

The last hurricane in June was Allison in 1995.

I notice quite an impressive feeder band north of Alex.

[ozonepete]

is the big slug of moisture and heavy rain south of lake charles right now going to spread across texas tomorrow?

If you mean that really big slug south of LA but east of the central Texas coast - No. That looks like it's moving into central Texas. There's a smaller slug of mositure just south of Lake Charles, and that's moving into southern Louisiana right now. Watch the motion on the satellite loops and you can get a feel for it (takes practice, but don't give up.)

[South Texas Storms]

is the big slug of moisture and heavy rain south of lake charles right now going to spread across texas tomorrow?

If you mean that really big slug south of LA but east of the central Texas coast - No. That looks like it's moving into central Texas. There's a smaller slug of mositure just south of Lake Charles, and that's moving into southern Louisiana right now. Watch the motion on the satellite loops and you can get a feel for it (takes practice, but don't give up.)

ok thanks. so it looks like it will hit me here in san antonio sometime tomorrow morning i guess? idk how to time it.

[crimi481]

Anyone notice spin -just off Tampa coast? It seems to be effecting Alex outer bands in N.E. Gukf?
Thought some of models show a small low left there.. You can see on Tamp Radar. Interesting
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[ozonepete]

is the big slug of moisture and heavy rain south of lake charles right now going to spread across texas tomorrow?

If you mean that really big slug south of LA but east of the central Texas coast - No. That looks like it's moving into central Texas. There's a smaller slug of mositure just south of Lake Charles, and that's moving into southern Louisiana right now. Watch the motion on the satellite loops and you can get a feel for it (takes practice, but don't give up.)

ok thanks. so it looks like it will hit me here in san antonio sometime tomorrow morning i guess? idk how to time it.

Well I gotta go to bed now, but yeah, tomorrow morning sometime. remember it could diminish in intensity a lot by the time it gets to you. there's no way of knowing until just before it arrives, and you have lots of dry air over you that could really weaken it. But it could be a soaker. At least you have time to sleep before it gets there....

[Macrocane]

It would be better if we don't quote the quote of the quote, that would make the thread easier to read

[AdamFirst]

Interest seems to have fallen off considerably because it's chances of a major impact on the United States are falling....

that's just me.


Looks like it's blowing up at the moment. Heavy convection firing over center, it's more active there than it's been all day.

[Wx_Warrior]

Agreed...lot's of crow eating...

Here in SETX we are about to get a big cell...will last for a while!

[South Texas Storms]

Agreed...lot's of crow eating...

Here in SETX we are about to get a big cell...will last for a while!

wx warrior will this cell make it to san antonio later tonight?

[lebron23]

Agreed...lot's of crow eating...

Here in SETX we are about to get a big cell...will last for a while!

wx warrior will this cell make it to san antonio later tonight?

your NWS office in san antonio has a 60 percent chance of rain tomorrow and a 80 percent chance thursday.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Eye as seen on Weather Underground's Wundermap using a high sensitivity:
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?l ... ds=0&ihg=0

[Brent]

Winds up to 80 and motion has slowed to just 5 mph.