SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT (14P)

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Latest

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Latest

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Latest

[somethingfunny]

Starting to look quite good.

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WTPS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 159.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 159.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.8S 159.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.9S 160.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.1S 162.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.1S 164.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 23.4S 168.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 25.4S 169.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 28.1S 170.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 159.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (PAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH
OF RARATONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED
AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AS CONVECTIVE BANDS DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED
FURTHER OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
1-KM RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE CURRENT IMAGERY IS BASED ON A T4.5
(77 KNOTS)DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS NOW TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST IN AN AREA OF LOW- TO MODERATE, ALBEIT INCREASING,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC PAT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD
AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WILL INTENSIFY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES STRONG WESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. BEYOND TAU 24, TC 14P WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 96, TC
PAT WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND TURN MORE
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT IN THE INITIAL TAUS, BUT DIVERGES INTO TWO GROUPINGS IN THE
LATER TAUS, WITH GFS, ECMWF, AND JGSM INDICATING AN UNLIKELY
WESTWARD TRACK DUE TO EXCESSIVE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH A
DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO THE WEST, WHILE UKMET, GFDN, TCLAPS, WBAR, AND
NOGAPS SUPPORT THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z.
//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 10/0211 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [975HPA] CAT 2 LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 159.1W
AT 100000 UTC MOVING SOUTH AT 07 KNOTS BUT GRADUALLY TURNING
SOUTHWEST AND WILL ACCELERATE. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF
60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
SECTORS FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

SPIRAL BANDS TO EAST AND SOUTH WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC AS PAT
TURNS TOWARDS SOUTHWEST. DEEP CPNVECTION PERSISTS OVER LLCC. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO NORTH AND SOUTH. PAT LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT IN A
LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.3 WRAP ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT4.0. PT=4.0 MET=4.5. FT BASED ON DT THUS,
T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS. SYSTEM NOW TURNING SOUTHEST UNDER A NORTHEAST
DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW INFLUENCED BY A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
EAST. SYSTEM MOVING INTO DECREASING SHEAR REGION. BRIEF
INTENSIFICATION ANTICIPATED BEFORE STRONGER SHEAR TO SOUTH EVENTUALLY
OVERWHELMS THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS DEEPEN THE SYSTEM WHILE MOVING
IT SOUTHWEST BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 18.7S 160.1W MOV SW AT 09KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 20.1S 161.5W MOV SW AT 10KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 21.2S 163.3W MOV WSW AT 11KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 22.2S 165.1W MOV WSW AT 10KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC PAT WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 100830 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

10/0222 UTC 17.7S 159.2W T4.5/4.5 PAT -- Southeast Pacific

75 knots

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Latest

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Very small eye

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Latest

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 159.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 159.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.3S 160.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.6S 162.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.9S 164.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 23.6S 167.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.7S 169.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.1S 169.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 159.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (PAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTH
OF RARATONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100428Z
TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A
ROUND 10 NM DIAMETER EYE WITH AXISYMMETRIC UNIFORM CONVECTION,
TYPICAL OF AN ANNULAR SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 14P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
OVER FAVORABLE SST AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 12,
TC 14P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND DECREASE IN INTENSITY
AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
NEAR TAU 72 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 96 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT
AS IT BECOMES COMPLETELY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102100Z AND 110900Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 10/0839 UTC 2010 UTC.

***CORRECTION TO CATEGORY**]

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [960HPA] CAT 3 LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 159.3W
AT 100600 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
FURTHER IN THIS DIRECTION. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 75 KNOTS
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 80 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
AND OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
IN SECTORS FROM
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES
OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

SPIRAL BANDS TO EAST AND SOUTH WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC AS PAT
TRACKS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND SOUTH. PAT
LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH WHITE SURROUND AND BLACK EYE
GIVES DT=5.0. PT=4.5 MET=5.0. FT RESTRICTED BY CONSTRAINTS. FT BASED
ON PT THUS, T4.5/4.5/D1.0/12HRS. CYCLONE STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS UNDER A
NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW INFLUENCED BY A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE TO EAST. SYSTEM MOVING INTO DECREASING SHEAR REGION. BRIEF
INTENSIFICATION ANTICIPATED BEFORE STRONGER SHEAR TO SOUTH EVENTUALLY
OVERWHELMS THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS DEEPEN THE SYSTEM WHILE MOVING
IT SOUTHWEST BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 19.5S 160.6W MOV SW AT 09KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 20.7S 162.1W MOV SW AT 10KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 21.8S 163.9W MOV WSW AT 10KT WITH 75KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 22.6S 165.9W MOV WSW AT 10KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC PAT WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 101430 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

NRL - 105 KNOTS

[HURAKAN]

10/0822 UTC 18.2S 159.5W T6.0/6.0 PAT -- Southeast Pacific

115 knots

[HURAKAN]

Minute storm

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 10/1420 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [960HPA] CAT 3 LOCATED NEAR 18.7S 159.6W
AT 101200 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
FURTHER IN THIS DIRECTION. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 75 KNOTS
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 80 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
AND OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
IN SECTORS FROM
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES
OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

SPIRAL BANDS TO EAST AND SOUTH WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC AS PAT
TRACKS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO NORTH AND
SOUTH. PAT LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT IN A LOW-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH WHITE SURROUND
AND BLACK EYE GIVES DT=5.0. PT=5.0 MET=5.0. FT BASED ON PT
THUS,T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS. CYCLONE STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER
AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS UNDER A
NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW INFLUENCED BY A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE TO EAST. SYSTEM MOVING INTO DECREASING SHEAR REGION. GLOBAL
MODELS DEEPEN THE SYSTEM WHILE MOVING IT SOUTHWEST BEFORE WEAKENING
AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 20.0S 161.0W MOV SW AT 10KT WITH 75KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 21.2S 162.7W MOV WSW AT 11KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 22.1S 164.6W MOV SW AT 10KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 23.2S 166.7W MOV WSW AT 10KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC PAT WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 102030 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 19.2S 160.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 160.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.3S 161.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.3S 163.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 22.3S 165.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 23.3S 168.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 160.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (PAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTH
OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. TC 14P IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGING TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 101802Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE FROM THE DEEP
CONVECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. AS TC 14P CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH AND ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL. THESE INFLUENCES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIVE A MORE RAPID
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
THEREFORE, THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION BELOW THE
WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z.//
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