SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM GELANE (16S)

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WTXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 62.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 62.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.2S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.7S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.5S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.8S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.9S 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.7S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 23.5S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 62.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND MAINTAINED A COMPACT SYMMETRICAL AREA
OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE 172330Z FIX FROM PGTW AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES RANGING
FROM T4.0 TO T4.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 16S IS BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS
- THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC GELANE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO THE STR. AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS MORE POLEWARD, IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASING VWS. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE TRACKS THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT WITH UKMET SKEWING THE TRACK WEST OF THE
PACK THEN ABRUPTLY MOVING IT DUE EAST AFTER TAU 48. NOGAPS IS NOTABLY
THE FASTEST OF THE GROUP. THIS FORECAST IS INITIALLY SLOWER THAN
CONSENSUS THEN CATCHES UP ON THE MID-TRACK BEFORE IT SPEEDS UP
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF CONSENSUS AT THE EXTENDED TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND
190300Z.//
NNNN

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Latest

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Beautiful!

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 374
WTIO30 FMEE 180650
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/12/20092010
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (GELANE)
2.A POSITION 2010/02/18 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 62.1E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 200 SO: 130 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 020 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 020
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/02/18 18 UTC: 15.5S/62.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2010/02/19 06 UTC: 16.1S/61.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2010/02/19 18 UTC: 17.0S/61.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2010/02/20 06 UTC: 17.9S/61.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2010/02/20 18 UTC: 18.9S/60.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2010/02/21 06 UTC: 19.9S/60.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0+; CI=4.0+
VERY LAST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW AGAIN A ILL-DEFINED AND SMALL EYE.
AN
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS STILL PRESENT POLEWARD.
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS: A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ON SATURDAY, STEERING FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO STRENGTHEN
NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE SAME
TIME, A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD TAKE PLACE
SOUTHWEST OF
GELANE. ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS, GELANE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TO
SOUTHWESTWARDS.
PRESENT FORECAST IS IN THE MEAN OF THE TRACKS ISSUED FROM THE
AVAILABLE
NWP MODELS. THE MODELS SPREAD IS STILL LARGE.
IT NOW APPEAR THAT NORTHERLY SHEAR COULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS
DESPITE A RATHER GOOD ENVIRONMENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL
RIDGE. BEYOND, IT SHOULD DEGRADE PROGRESSIVELY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH
IS COMING FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
PREVISIONS AU DELA DE 72H D'ECHEANCE :
096H: 2010/02/22 06 UTC: 21.7S/58.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
.
120H: 2010/02/23 06 UTC: 24.0S/55.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
.=
NNNN

[Macrocane]

An excelent tropical cyclone, and I thought it had already peaked yesterday, I guess that because of its size the intensity could be underestimated.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 62.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 62.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.2S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.7S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.5S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.8S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.9S 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.7S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 23.5S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 62.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND MAINTAINED A COMPACT SYMMETRICAL AREA
OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE 172330Z FIX FROM PGTW AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES RANGING
FROM T4.0 TO T4.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 16S IS BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS
- THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC GELANE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO THE STR. AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS MORE POLEWARD, IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASING VWS. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE TRACKS THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT WITH UKMET SKEWING THE TRACK WEST OF THE
PACK THEN ABRUPTLY MOVING IT DUE EAST AFTER TAU 48. NOGAPS IS NOTABLY
THE FASTEST OF THE GROUP. THIS FORECAST IS INITIALLY SLOWER THAN
CONSENSUS THEN CATCHES UP ON THE MID-TRACK BEFORE IT SPEEDS UP
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF CONSENSUS AT THE EXTENDED TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND
190300Z.//
NNNN

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NRL - 100 knots

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18/1430 UTC 15.5S 62.4E T5.5/5.5 GELANE -- Southwest Indian

100 knots

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 62.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.7S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.7S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.6S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.5S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 21.0S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.3S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.4S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
COMPACT SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM THAT HAS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON THE 182330Z DVORAK FIX FROM PGTW OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS). UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 16S IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST FLANK,
ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 16S IS
TRACKING ON A MORE SOUTHWARD DIRECTION AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE SOUTH GAINS STEERING CONTROL OVER THE SYSTEM. TC GELANE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STR
BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS BEFORE IT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET,
WHICH CONTINUES TO ERRONEOUSLY TRACK THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 979
WTIO30 FMEE 181837 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/12/20092010
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (GELANE)
2.A POSITION 2010/02/18 AT 1800 UTC :
15.8S / 62.3E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 100
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/02/19 06 UTC: 16.4S/62.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2010/02/19 18 UTC: 17.2S/61.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2010/02/20 06 UTC: 18.2S/61.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2010/02/20 18 UTC: 18.9S/60.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2010/02/21 06 UTC: 19.7S/60.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2010/02/21 18 UTC: 20.3S/59.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5+; CI=4.5+
SYSTEM REACHED AGAIN THE STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE. INTENSITY IS
STATIONARY. ACCORDING TO ASCAT DATA AT 0526Z AND MW SSMIS AT 1519Z,
GELANE IS CALLED A MIDGET.
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS: A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, SO THE SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY
GLOBALY SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS.
ON SATURDAY, THE SYSTEME IS FORECAST UNDERGOING A STRENGTHENING
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STEERING FLOW SHOULD BECOME
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER, AND THE TRACK SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTWARDS DUE
TO
THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM A THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ACCORDING TO MOS
T OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS, GELANE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARDS
AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWESTWARDS.
PRESENT FORECAST IS IN THE MEAN OF THE TRACKS ISSUED FROM THE
AVAILABLE
NWP MODELS. THE MODELS SPREAD IS STILL LARGE.
INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE SYSTEM SIZE (MIDGET).
PRESENT
FORECAST IS TO KEEP GELANE AT THE STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE
NEXT
12 HOURS, AS ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER GOOD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. BEYOND, ENVIRONMENT SHOULD DEGRADE PROGRESSIVELY
AS AN
UPPER LE
VEL TROUGH IS COMING FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR.
SO GELANE SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY.
PREVISIONS AU DELA DE 72H D'ECHEANCE :
096H: 2010/02/22 18 UTC: 21.3S/58.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROPICAL DIST.
120H: 2010/02/23 18 UTC: 22.8S/56.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROPICAL DIST.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 768
WTIO30 FMEE 190028
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/12/20092010
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (GELANE)
2.A POSITION 2010/02/19 AT 0000 UTC :
16.3S / 62.3E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 280 SO: 200 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/02/19 12 UTC: 17.5S/61.8E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2010/02/20 00 UTC: 18.5S/61.1E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2010/02/20 12 UTC: 19.4S/60.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2010/02/21 00 UTC: 19.8S/60.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2010/02/21 12 UTC: 20.5S/59.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2010/02/22 00 UTC: 21.2S/58.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0-; CI=5.0-
SYSTEM REACHED AGAIN THE STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE SYSTEM HAS
SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY, (COLDER CDO). ACCORDING TO ASCAT DATA AT 1756Z
AND MW
SSMIS AT 1519Z, GELANE IS CALLED A MIDGET AND MW AQUA AT 2131Z
SHOWS A
LITTLE TILD BETWEEN 37 AND 85 CHANELS.
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS: A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, SO THE SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY
GLOBALY SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS.
ON SATURDAY, THE SYSTEME IS FORECAST UNDERGOING A STRENGTHENING
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STEERING FLOW SHOULD BECOME
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER, AND THE TRACK SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTWARDS DUE
TO
THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM A THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ACCORDING TO MOS
T OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS, GELANE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARDS
AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWESTWARDS.
PRESENT FORECAST IS IN THE MEAN OF THE TRACKS ISSUED FROM THE
AVAILABLE
NWP MODELS. THE MODELS SPREAD IS STILL LARGE.
INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE SYSTEM SIZE (MIDGET) THE
SYSTEM REMAINS VERY SENSIBLE TO LITTLE VARIATIONS OF ENVIRONNEMTAL
CONDITIONS. PRESENT FORECAST IS TO KEEP GELANE AT THE STAGE OF
TROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER GOOD ON
THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. BEYOND, ENVIRONMENT SHOULD DEGRADE PROGRESSIVELY
AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS COMING FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. SO GELANE SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY.
PREVISIONS AU DELA DE 72H D'ECHEANCE :
096H: 2010/02/23 00 UTC: 23.8S/56.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROPICAL DIST.
120H: 2010/02/24 00 UTC: 25.7S/52.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROPICAL DIST.=
NNNN

[Grifforzer]

192
WTIO30 FMEE 190647


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/12/20092010
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (GELANE)

2.A POSITION 2010/02/19 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7S / 62.2E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 280 SO: 200 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/02/19 18 UTC: 17.8S/61.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2010/02/20 06 UTC: 18.7S/61.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2010/02/20 18 UTC: 19.3S/60.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2010/02/21 06 UTC: 20.2S/59.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2010/02/21 18 UTC: 21.0S/59.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2010/02/22 06 UTC: 21.8S/58.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5
SATELLIE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GELANE HAS STRENGHTENED WITHIN THE LAST 6
HOURS.

SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING TWO OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS: A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM TRACKS THERFORE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS.
ON SATURDAY, THE SYSTEME IS FORECASTED UNDERGOING A STRENGTHENING
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, STEERING FLOW SHOULD BECOME
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER, AND THE TRACK SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTWARDS DUE
TO
THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ACCORDING TO M
OST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS, GELANE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHWARDS,
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWESTWARDS.

PRESENT FORECAST IS CLOSED TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACKS ISSUED FROM
THE
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS. THE MODELS SPREAD REMAINS STILL LARGE.

INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE SYSTEM SIZE (MIDGET) THE
SYSTEM REMAINS VERY SENSIBLE TO LITTLE VARIATIONS OF ENVIRONNEMTAL
CONDITIONS. PRESENT FORECAST IS TO KEEP GELANE AT THE STAGE OF
TROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER GOOD ON
THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. BEYOND, ENVIRONMENT SHOULD DEGRADE PROGRESSIVELY
AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SO GELANE SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY.

[Grifforzer]

WTIO30 FMEE 191248
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/12/20092010
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (GELANE)
2.A POSITION 2010/02/19 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4S / 62.1E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 200 SO: 170 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/02/20 00 UTC: 18.5S/61.9E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP.
CYCL.
.
24H: 2010/02/20 12 UTC: 19.5S/61.5E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP.
CYCL.
.
36H: 2010/02/21 00 UTC: 20.3S/60.8E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2010/02/21 12 UTC: 21.1S/59.9E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2010/02/22 00 UTC: 21.8S/58.8E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2010/02/22 12 UTC: 22.3S/57.3E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP.
DEPRESSION.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=6.5- AND CI=6.5
GELANE KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING.
AT THIS STAGE, IT UNDERGOES THE NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW IN
RELATIONSHIP
WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN ITS NORTHEAST (REFER TO 400 HPA
WIND
FIELD FROM ECMWF NWP).
AS THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS OR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS,
IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO UNDERGO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTED WINDSHEAR AND SHOULD
THERFORE NOT WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY.
ON AND AFTER SATURDAY AT 12Z, WINDSHEAR SHOULD BECOME STRONGER AND
STRONGER IN RELATIONSHIP WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE (MIDGET), GELANE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY
AND
TO UNDERGO
THE STEERING FLOW OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
EUROPEAN NWP MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE AMERICAN ONES. THE RECURVING
MOVMENT IS EARLIER FOR THE FIRST GROUP.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THIS TWO OPTIONS , CLOSER
TO
THE AMERICAN NWP'S AT SHORT RANGE (MORE REALISTIC WITH THE PRESENT
INTENSITY).