SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (13F/20P)

[Cookie]

this is going to be on to watch

[KWT]

JTWC has moved the system further north in response to better agreement between the GFS/ECM of a system that will get eithe very close to the east coast or possibly even make landfall. I have to admit this is looking like a possible big one unless some unforseen events happen upon it.

[CrazyC83]

Looks stronger than that. I would guess 65 kt based on all the estimates out there and the intermittent eye.

[Sheronz]

[HurricaneBill]

Ului?

Wasn't the name after Tomas supposed to be "Usha"?

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 13/0326 UTC 2010 UTC.

**** CORRECTION

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI CENTRE 980 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 164.4E AT
130000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SLOW. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS IN THE
NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.

DEEP CONVECTION BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND THE LLCC.
SYSTEM LIES IN A LIGHT TO MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. UPPER
OUTFLOW GOOD IN ALL SECTORS. SST AROUND 30C. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWEST BY EAST TO SOUTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW. ORGANISATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
0.95 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=3.5, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 13.3S 162.6E MOV WNW AT 09 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 13.0S 161.2E MOV WNW AT 07 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 13.0S 159.8E MOV W AT 07 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 13.0S 158.5E MOV W AT 06 KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 130900 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Ului?

Wasn't the name after Tomas supposed to be "Usha"?

The NHC also has Usha. Link : http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[Macrocane]

A banding eye seems to be developing. It has been a couple of inactive weeks but this two cyclones (Ului and Thomas) will completely change that trend if they become the powerful cyclones that the models are suggesting.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Saturday the 13th of March 2010 and valid until end of
Tuesday

Existing cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone Ului, category 2, was located northwest of Vanuatu near
latitude 13.8 south longitude 164.4 east at 10am AEST Saturday. Tropical Cyclone
Ului is expected to continue to intensify while moving slowly westward.

Potential Cyclones:

Nil.

Likelihood of a new tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Sunday: High
Monday: High
Tuesday: High

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day:
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

NRL - 65 knots

[P.K.]

Forecast track now shows this reaching a cat 5.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 13/0902 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI CENTRE 975 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 163.9E AT
130600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS INCREASING
TO 80 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS
WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.

ORGANISATION SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
INCREASED AND COOLED ABOUT LLCC. BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC.
SYSTEM LIES IN A LIGHT TO MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. UPPER
OUTFLOW GOOD IN ALL SECTORS. SST AROUND 30C. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWEST BY EAST TO SOUTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.2 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING
DT=4.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED DT, THUS T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 13.1S 162.3E MOV WNW AT 08 KT WITH 70
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 12.9S 160.8E MOV W AT 08KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 12.8S 159.2E MOV W AT 08KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 12.9S 157.7E MOV W AT 07 KT WITH 100 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 131500 UTC.

[senorpepr]

449
TPPS10 PGTW 131214

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI)

B. 13/1130Z

C. 13.1S

D. 163.0E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D3.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO UNDERGO
RAPID DEEPENING AS 12NM MG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS A DT OF
6.5. PT YIELDS A 6.0. MET YIELDS AN UNREP 4.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/0844Z 13.2S 163.4E SSMS


UEHARA


T6.0 would suggest winds around 115 kt...

[senorpepr]

TXPS41 PHFO 131144
TCSSP1

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1144 UTC SAT MAR 13 2010

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI...13F

B. 13/1030Z

C. 13.1S

D. 163.3E

E. MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24 HOURS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...DG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG YIELDS AN EYE NUMBER OF 5.0. NO
EYE ADJUSTMENT...SO DT IS 5.0. PT AGREES. MET IS 4.5. FINAL T BASED
ON DT...SINCE RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS OCCURRING.

I. ADDL POSITIONS:
13/0844Z 13.2S 163.5E SSMS

$$
HOUSTON

CPHC not as bullish as JTWC, T4.5 or roughly 77 kt

[P.K.]

BoM also T6.0.

WWSO21 ABRF 131137
IDQ20015
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre


SATELLITE ANALYSIS BULLETIN
1137 UTC 13 March 2010

Tropical Cyclone Ului
131130 UTC

13.2S 163.3E

Analysis based on: MTSAT EIR images at 130830 - 131030UTC

Latitude Detection Sum: 6

Longitude Detection Sum: 13

T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24HRS

System is intensifying very rapidly. Eye patterns used on last 3 hourly images
give DT6.0, 6.0, and 6.5 respectively for an average DT of 6.0. MET is 4.5, PAT
is 5.0. DT used as final T, Dvorak constraints would restrict FT to 5.5.

[HURAKAN]

Continues to get better

[HURAKAN]

Eye already visible

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 MAR 2010 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 13:09:53 S Lon : 163:04:30 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 941.5mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.6 6.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -54.0C Cloud Region Temp : -84.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Macrocane]

According to the last JTWC warning Ului will reach a peak intensity of 150 kt thta's very impressive! it will be an amazing but very dangerous cyclone and surely one of the strongest that will exist this year.