WPAC: EX TROPICAL STORM OMAIS

[cycloneye]

What would be the name?

[senorpepr]

What would be the name?

Omais

[P.K.]

Jumping a bit ahead here in the thread title. It isn't a TS until it gets named!

WTPQ20 RJTD 222100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 222100UTC 08.6N 140.0E POOR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 232100UTC 09.7N 135.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[StormingB81]

Looks like with all the sheer that it might just be a rain event if it hits anyone. But you know the weather around here (I don't know about any other place in the WPAC) has been strange so nothing would suprise me.

BTW Welcome back Infdidoll haven't seen you in awhile..must be nice to be in the states..lol

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[oaba09]

I can't believe I'm saying this but I am hoping for some rain in our country...

A lot of farmers are being affected by el nino right now....The losses in agriculture are already in millions of dollars and rising....

[StormingB81]

I can't believe I'm saying this but I am hoping for some rain in our country...

A lot of farmers are being affected by el nino right now....The losses in agriculture are already in millions of dollars and rising....

Sometimes though with how dry the land is that much rain will do more harm then good cause flooding will be like instant because the ground wont be able to absorb the rain unless i got that wrong.

[dhoeze]

I can't believe I'm saying this but I am hoping for some rain in our country...

A lot of farmers are being affected by el nino right now....The losses in agriculture are already in millions of dollars and rising....

Dam administrators are saying that if only 1 storm hits our country, our water issue will be solve.
+1 on your wish

[Typhoon Hunter]

I have no idea what those jokers at JTWC are smoking but I just got this bulletin through in my inbox (quickly followed by a corrected version.)

289
TPPN11 PGTW 230029

A. SUPER HURRICANE 02W (E OF YAP)

B. 22/2330Z

C. 9.3N

D. 139.4E

E. FOUR/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 32A/PBO CDO/ANMTN. CVNCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING 2.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
22/1928Z 9.5N 139.9E AMSU


ROSS

Then corrected to:

901
TPPN11 PGTW 230029 COR

A. TROPICAL STORM 02W (E OF YAP)

[HURAKAN]

Oops!!! LOL.



Latest

[cycloneye]

JTWC 0300z Warning

WTPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 9.7N 139.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7N 139.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 10.7N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 11.8N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 12.9N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 13.9N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.9N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.0N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.8N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 139.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST OF YAP,
HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

I have no idea what those jokers at JTWC are smoking but I just got this bulletin through in my inbox (quickly followed by a corrected version.)

289
TPPN11 PGTW 230029

A. SUPER HURRICANE 02W (E OF YAP)

B. 22/2330Z

C. 9.3N

D. 139.4E

E. FOUR/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 32A/PBO CDO/ANMTN. CVNCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING 2.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
22/1928Z 9.5N 139.9E AMSU


ROSS

Then corrected to:

901
TPPN11 PGTW 230029 COR

A. TROPICAL STORM 02W (E OF YAP)

LOL!!!! I think we are a little to early for that. Maybe if this was August.

[Kingarabian]

I have no idea what those jokers at JTWC are smoking but I just got this bulletin through in my inbox (quickly followed by a corrected version.)

289
TPPN11 PGTW 230029

A. SUPER HURRICANE 02W (E OF YAP)

B. 22/2330Z

C. 9.3N

D. 139.4E

E. FOUR/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 32A/PBO CDO/ANMTN. CVNCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING 2.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
22/1928Z 9.5N 139.9E AMSU


ROSS

Then corrected to:

901
TPPN11 PGTW 230029 COR

A. TROPICAL STORM 02W (E OF YAP)

ROFLMAO. Made my day.

[dexterlabio]

It's been a while since I first got here in this forum I think everyone knew that Philippines is being affected by severe El Nino conditions, and even light-passing drizzles will soothe the water thirst of our dry soil, and even us would want to freshen up because the weather here turned out to be so hot, and we are not yet even reaching the month of April when the real summer heat begins.

It's funny to think that we are now wishing for rains to come, unlike last year when we began panicking when the rain starts to fall... It all started with Ondoy (Ketsana), and storms keep coming there on.

And for this system, I was amazed that it still managed to develop in this kind of condition. No vapor would feed it for its survival, and I'm not sure if this should also be blamed to El Nino. Still, I wish its rainbands would reach our lands and supply the country with enough amounts of water

[dhoeze]

Everybody's praying... hopefully rain would come.

Hey saw this just now, earlier it was more organize but with pic, looks like its splitting into two...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 10.7N 137.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 137.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 11.8N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.1N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.2N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 15.1N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.3N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.2N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 137.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

JMA:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 11.2N 137.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 12.2N 136.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 241800UTC 13.9N 132.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 10.9N 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 136.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 11.8N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 13.4N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.0N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.3N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.9N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 136.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231640Z AMSU
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION AND
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT UNFAVORABLE
EASTERLY FLOW. ACCORDINGLY, THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED A
BIT AS THE SYSTEM IS NOT FORECAST TO INTENSIFY MUCH MORE AS IT
APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A PASSING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, BY TAU 48, TS 02W WILL START TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSED BY THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE AND DRIFT ALONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. AFTER 48 HOURS, THIS FORECAST DEVIATES FROM THE JTWC
CONSENSUS AS A FEW OF THE TRACKERS, MOST NOTABLY THOSE OFFERED BY
THE NOGAPS AND GFS MODELS, INDICATE A DEEPER SYSTEM THAT WILL RE-
CURVE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.//
NNNN