WTIO32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 12.8N 51.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 51.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 13.0N 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 13.1N 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 13.1N 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.1N 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.2N 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 51.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH THE APPROACH OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THIS EVENT HAS DEEPENED THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 210326Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T3.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TC 02A IS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY TO
THE WEST INTO THE GULF OF ADEN, STEERED BY THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS
FURTHER SOUTH, AN INCREASE IN VWS COUPLED WITH THE ENTRAINMENT OF
DRIER AIR FROM THE SOMALI DESERT AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF THE GULF, TC 02A IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 17 FT. NEXT WARNINGS AT
211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B
(LAILA) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
