BAY OF BENGAL - CYCLONIC STORM LAILA (01B)

[Sanibel]

May Bay Of Bengal cyclone.

[djones65]

http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/5396 ... olorpc.jpg

Looks like Laila may already be 65 knots... Here's latest microwave image taken at 1356 UTC 18 May 2010.

[Derek Ortt]

looks more like 60-65KT based upon the microwave

could see this reaching 100 before landfall

[HURAKAN]

Looking like a hurricane

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ugaap]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL STORM ‘LAILA’ ADVISORY NO. FIVE ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 18TH MAY 2010 BASED ON 1200 UTC CHARTS OF 18TH MAY.



THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘LAILA’ OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 18TH MAY 2010 OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 13.00N AND LONG. 83.50E, ABOUT 350 KM EAST OF CHENNAI, 520 KM SOUTH OF VISAKHAPATNAM AND 1200 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA.



sustained maximum SURFACE wind speed is estimated to be about 45 KNOTS. the state of the sea is HIGH around the system centre. the estimated CENTRAL pressure is about 990 hpa.



SATELLITE IMAGeRY INDICATES BANDING PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.0. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LAT. 8.00 N TO 17.50 N. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -900C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS LOW (5-10 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 150N. SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. IT IS LIKELY TO GUIDE THE SYSTEM NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD AFTER SOME TIME. SHEAR TENDENCY OVER PAST 24 HOURS IS NEGATIVE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, AS THEY HAVE INCREASED DURING PAST 12 HRS.



CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS GUIDANCE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR SOME MORE TIME AND THEN MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST BETWEEN ONGOLE AND VISAKHAPATNAM BY EARLY HOURS OF 20TH MAY 2010.



BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:



DATE/TIME(UTC) POSITION (LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E) SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)

18-05-2010/1200 13.0/83.5 85-95 GUSTING TO 105

18-05-2010/1800 13.0/83.0 95-105 GUSTING TO 115

19-05-2010/0000 13.5/82.5 95-105 GUSTING TO 115

19-05-2010/0600 14.0/82.0 105-115 GUSTING TO 125

19-05-2010/1200 15.0/81.5 115-125 GUSTING TO 135

20-05-2010/0000 16.5/81.5 115-125 GUSTING TO 135

20-05-2010/1200 17.5/82.0 95-155 GUSTING TO 155

21-05-2010/0000 18.5/83.0 85-95 GUSTING TO 105

21-05-2010/1200 19.5/84.5 75-85 GUSTING TO 95

[HURAKAN]

This track would be horrible

[Rezwanur]

I'm from Bangladesh. Our total coastal area situated in Bay Of Bengal. The current news of Cyclone Liala from our local Ranked no.1 English daily newspaper of Bangladesh is:

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Cyclone Laila gathers pace over Bay
Staff Correspondent

The Bay of Bengal remains rough and all fishing trawlers were advised to return to the shore as the depression formed in the southwest at about 1,300 km off the coast intensified into a cyclonic storm yesterday.

Following a spell of heat waves across the country, the cyclone named “Laila” is possibly bringing the monsoon with it, a weather expert said.

“However, it still remains at a safe distance and might take two more days to approach the coast. At present it appears to be moving towards the coasts of Orissa and Andhra Pradesh but might change its course, any moment,” said Sujit Dev, an eminent meteorological expert of the country.

“If it catches the westerly then it might strike the coast of Bangladesh but otherwise approach the Indian coast,” he said.

The Met Office has advised the port authorities of Chittagong, Cox's Bazar and Mongla to hoist maritime signal number two.

The Met office released a special bulletin yesterday at 6:00pm, which said the cyclone is likely to intensify further and move northwest towards Orissa-Andhra coasts of India.

The bulletin stated Laila was located at about 1,305km southwest of Chittagong Port, 1,230km southwest of Cox's Bazar and 1,220km south-southwest of Mongla Port.

The maximum sustained wind speed within 54km of the depression centre is about 62kph but rapidly rising to 88kph in gusts and sea may become rougher.

Our Cox's Bazar correspondent reports: Around 6,000 trawlers are heading back towards the shore following the cautionary signal.

Already over 50 trawlers have reached the estuary of the Bakkhali.

Ahmed Nabi, 45, a boatman from FV Kulsuma said they were around 60km off the coast but rushed back to the shore when they heard about the impending cyclone.

Some trawlers have already ventured 150-200km into the deep seas and would take more time to return, he said.

Mujibur Rahman, president of Cox's Bazar Fishing Boat Owners Association, said currently there are around 6,000 fishing trawlers and 90,000 fishermen working in the deep sea.

“They were asked to return to shore,” said Rahman.

The sea is to remain choppy for the next few days and the waves to climb a few feet higher than usual, the report adds.

link of this news: http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-details.php?nid=139132

[KWT]

Wow that microwave imagery just confirms a system that is probably primed for some pretty rapid strengthening. As Derek has said it would be all that shocking to see this reach 100kts or maybe even higher if its quick enough, its certainly got SST's and possibly time on its side.

[Derek Ortt]

if you are in Bangladesh and this turns toward you, do not rely solely upon the IMD. I CANNOT stress this enough. Their intensity estimates traditionally are about 30KT too low. They had Nargis as a 90KT cyclone when it was really at least 115KT (and its sat signature was not too dissimilar from Wilma at its peak

I would rely more upon the JTWC forecasts as they have a much better handle on this basin

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 MAY 2010 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 13:43:31 N Lon : 82:31:37 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 970.0mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 3.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -79.3C Cloud Region Temp : -81.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

Latest consensus

[HURAKAN]

Latest from NRL

[Derek Ortt]

JTWC only went 55KT. Somewhat surprised given the appearance

They also are going with the landfall in India

[Iune]

Current landfall is expected 36 miles from my grandparents home

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be about 75 kt right now (pressure guess 976mb). Agreed it should at least become a Cat 2, maybe a Cat 3.

[HURAKAN]

NRL - 65 knots

[HURAKAN]

Closer to land

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (LAILA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (LAILA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 13.4N 81.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 81.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 14.3N 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.1N 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.3N 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.5N 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.8N 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.8N 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.7N 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 81.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01B HAS
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS (35 TO 65 KNOTS). ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE.
AN 182222Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE WITH EXCELLENT CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 KNOTS
(DEMS) TO 65 KNOTS (PGTW). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN
ASIA. TC 01B IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE (NOGAPS, GFS, TC-LAPS, WBAR, EGRR, ECMWF AND GFDN) SUPPORTS
THIS TRACK AND ALSO INDICATES INCREASING TRACK SPEEDS IN THE EXTENDED
TAUS. LAILA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36 AND SHOULD
WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THE REMNANTS SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHEASTERN INDIA AND BANGLADESH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 190000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

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