ATL : INVEST 90L

[KatDaddy]

As always wxman57, good points. This early Invest is just a reminder that hurricane season is upon us and every should have their plans ready if needed later this Summer. Get your rest and cycling in wxman57. It looks to be a long season ahead.

[srainhoutx]

As wxman57 stated, I would not be surprised to see Alex named. Good practice run to get folks attention.

[KWT]

Looks like utter rubbish right now, I'd personally drop the invest right now but with the expectation that it could well come back down the line...shear is just killing this system right now, as you'd expect for May!

If it can get itself over the Gulf, then I think in 3-4 days we could well see something from this, if it doesn't, then its going to really struggle but even then I wouldn't rule out STS development.

Also I suspect we could get recon tasked some point soon for this system.

[Dean4Storms]

Interesting storm to watch unfold here. I think the EURO has the best handle on it to this point.

[KWT]

Yeah the ECM looks interesting, that being said if the low is reforming further east then perhaps the GFS solution does need to be watched a little closer.

I'm fully expecting this to be about for a good week before it probably starts to eject, and it has plenty of time to develop, esp if the shear does ease off.

[CrazyC83]

Not really expecting much development with this blob.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 90, 2010052200, , BEST, 0, 249N, 733W, 25, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 155, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

Not expecting much until Sunday or Monday

[Category 5]

IMO,I think they designated this as invest a bit premature.I would have waited at least to Saturday or the latest on Sunday but again is my opinion.

They definitely did. As of right now this is lets face it, absolutely nothing. They're handing out the term invest a bit to liberally.

I will comment though, albeit it a few weeks later, this kind of reminds me of the Pre-Andrea situation in 07.

[brunota2003]

Why does everyone say they handed it out too early? Invests are declared on areas of interest that may or may not develop, so that more data can be gathered (which in turn can be researched and could possibly lead to better improvements in the models). In this case, several models have been suggesting that this system could turn into a subtropical system, thus generating interest, which leads to the tagging so that the data can start flowing...and on top of that, this area is a great test of all the systems, allowing any bugs to be worked out prior to a real threat.

[Cryomaniac]

Why does everyone say they handed it out too early?

Because someone always does.

[RevDodd]

With Hurricane Preparedness Week coming up next week, the blob's timing was fortuitous. Sort of an Ugly Betty situation. He ain't pretty, but he's here when he's needed.

[bvigal]

Sure looks meager. Meanwhile, another low is on the map, NNW of Puerto Rico. Vorticity, convergence increasing, shear decreasing (while increasing over 90L). Maybe the action has moved to the east.

[Derek Ortt]

models have said the low that will develop is the one north of PR

[cycloneye]

Agree Derek.Not the position Best Track has at 12:00z.

AL, 90, 2010052212, , BEST, 0, 234N, 736W, 20, 1011, LO

[AJC3]

Why does everyone say they handed it out too early? Invests are declared on areas of interest that may or may not develop, so that more data can be gathered (which in turn can be researched and could possibly lead to better improvements in the models). In this case, several models have been suggesting that this system could turn into a subtropical system, thus generating interest, which leads to the tagging so that the data can start flowing...and on top of that, this area is a great test of all the systems, allowing any bugs to be worked out prior to a real threat.

What he said...

[wxman57]

I talked to Bill Read about invests at a recent conference. He confirmed that the NHC does decide when to declare an invest. But there are no set criteria that a disturbance has to meet. Sometimes, they declare an invest just because they want to take a closer look at a disturbance. That doesn't mean they think it is on its way to developing, they just want to run some models just in case. In order to do that, they have to declare an invest. They may occasionally declare an invest on a system with very little chance of development. No harm done, invests aren't broadcast to the public.

So an invest cannot be declared "too early". Don't make the incorrect assumption that invest = development likely. That's just not the case.

[thetruesms]

Indeed - I do hope, however, that they realize at the NHC that invests are beginning to hold greater public interest. It may be a good idea for them to get ahead of the game and nip any overexcitement with some type of page beyond the definition hidden away in their online glossary. It would be a good way to reach out and educate people about what an invest does and does not mean before it starts getting tossed about more publicly.

[wxman57]

Actually, the only "public" which would know what an invest is would be hurricane enthusiasts like those who visit this forum. I deal with thousands of the general public in my talks each spring. Not more than a small handful know what an invest is, and those small few are the "weather nuts". Invests are not broadcast to the public, they're internal (but not hidden). The only "over-excitement" I see when an invest is declared is here on the weather forum. No reason at all to educate the general public about them as they're not being distributed to the public.

There are no development potential criteria to declare an invest, as there would be for a TCFA (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert). Should there be? Invests are simply a method that the NHC employs to take a better look at any feature in the tropics, regardless of the development potential. To limit invests would take away a tool that the NHC uses just to gauge potential development and movement.

[cycloneye]

ATCF Best Track updated a new position at 12z closer to Dereks position.

AL, 90, 2010052212, , BEST, 0, 224N, 693W, 25, 1010, LO

[SkeetoBite]

Data we ingest at SkeetobiteWeather:

We've seen several "80's" series invests declared on potential systems prior to the "90's" series invest being declared. We have also seen "80's" series invests initialized on expired "90's" series invests, in an apparent attempt to keep an eye on the former invest I suppose. The latter was true when we saw (eg; AL91) allowed to expire and then AL91 reinitialized at a later date, with AL89 (or whatever) used in between. This has happened several times over the past few years.

Our system treats all of the invest series the same and sends a map to my phone. Many times the data between the 80 and subsequent 90 series is identical. Then again, someone could have "fat thumbed" it!