EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS - DISCUSSION

[gatorcane]

Good example of an invest with potential to develop further. It had model support and was in an area where upper-level winds were expected to become favorable. That is why I thought this would develop (despite some easterly shear it was experiencing a couple of days ago) and indeed it could be a tropical depression or storm shortly. The EPAC is definitely rather active and could be this way for the next couple of weeks.

[KWT]

Well there ya go as expected the NHC waited for Vis.imagery and have decided to pull the tirgger. Probably will become TS Blas as I believe this one will have a far better chance of strengthening than Td2E.

[cycloneye]

Here comes TD 3-E.

EP, 92, 2010061712, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1058W, 30, 1007, TD

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ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[Kingarabian]

Here comes TD 3-E.

EP, 92, 2010061712, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1058W, 30, 1007, TD

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ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

Is it natural for the Epac to be active this early? Last year it took a while to see some development.

[cycloneye]

The EPAC for the most part starts early,that is why it begins on May 15.Later on,it starts to turn less active as in Neutral and La Nina years have occured causing the number of storms forming to be on the average (16) or slightly below average.

[KWT]

Yeah its pretty typical to get development in May and June like we are seeing right now. As for last year, remember we had a La Nina that winter/spring, which caused the early part of the season to be unfavourable, hence why it started slow but picked up.

[CrazyC83]

June is like July in the Atlantic.

Most likely, this season in the EPAC will be front-loaded due to the decaying El Nino.

[cycloneye]

Very well organized system now as shear has eased sufficient to be classified as a TD shortly.It may be Blas before this day is out.

[Chacor]

Looking really good.

[Chacor]

WTPZ33 KNHC 171450
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010
800 AM PDT THU JUN 17 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 105.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TOMORROW WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Chacor]

Not expecting much out of this one, interesting.

WTPZ43 KNHC 171451
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010
800 AM PDT THU JUN 17 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS FINALLY BECOME
PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO THAT THE NHC HAS BEEN MONITORING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A
1215 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS ON THE
NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A BALL OF CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 2.0...30 KT...AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION HAS A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE INCREASING EASTERLY
SHEAR...COOLER SSTS AND DRIER AIR IMPINGE ON THE SYSTEM. THE NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN HARD TO DETERMINE...BUT THE DEPRESSION
APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER MEXICO SHOULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH
WOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY MOVED THE PRECURSOR LOW FROM THE
DEPRESSION MUCH TOO QUICKLY TO THE WEST...PROBABLY BECAUSE IT HAS
BEEN ENTANGLED IN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS
BECOMING A LITTLE MORE SEPARATED FROM THAT FEATURE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...NOT TOO FAR
FROM THE ECMWF MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 15.3N 105.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 15.4N 105.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 15.6N 105.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 15.7N 106.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 15.9N 107.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 16.5N 110.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 112.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 22/1200Z 16.5N 115.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[KWT]

Already at 30kts, which I was somewhat expecting given the presentation of the system.

I'm fully expecting this to be Blas, its got a really neat looking outflow on the western side probably due to some of the eastern shear. I wouldn't be surprised if its infact a 35kts TS right now but thats probably just me

[NOLA2010]

Something a little interesting. Someone on Wikipedia already thinks it is a Tropical Storm.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Pacif ... ane_season

[Bocadude85]

Tropical Storm BLAS Update Statement
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Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive UPDATE
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000
WTPZ63 KNHC 171537
TCUEP3
TROPICAL STORM BLAS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010
840 AM PDT THU JUN 17 2010
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...

DATA RECENTLY RECEIVED FROM A SHIP INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE-E HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM BLAS...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH...65 KM/HR. NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ARE BEING MADE AT THIS TIME.

SUMMARY OF 840 AM PDT...1540 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 105.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

That upgrade was very fast.

[KWT]

Well I did nsay I thought it looked like a 35kts hehe

Anyway we now have our second TS, given its presentation its 0probably got the time to ramp up somewhat towards 45-55kts type range.

[clfenwi]

The ship ob came from a cargo ship named Maersk Dhahran , call-sign A8PX5. At 15Z it was at 15.10N 105.60E and reported 40 knot winds. At 16Z the same ship observed 39 knots at 14.70N 105.40E

[Macrocane]

The EPAC season now has 2 tropical storms (Agatha and Blas) and the WPAC only one (Omais), that's not very common.

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track

EP, 03, 2010061718, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1057W, 40, 999, TS

[cycloneye]

378
WTPZ43 KNHC 172031
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010
200 PM PDT THU JUN 17 2010

BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF BLAS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY. THE SHIP MAERSK SHAHRAN REPORTED
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND A PRESSURE OF 1002 MB AS IT MOVED
NEAR THE CENTER OF BLAS EARLIER TODAY. THESE DATA...ALONG WITH
INCREASING DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES...SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW
STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT TO THE EAST OF BLAS...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO INCREASE IN A DAY OR SO. AROUND THAT
TIME...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING DEEPER INTO AN AREA OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND...PRESUMABLY...A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF BLAS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS
MODELS...AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN BEFORE.

BLAS HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND IS NOW MOVING AT ABOUT
320/3. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGING BUILDING OVER MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD FORCE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO MOVE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH TIME AND
INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN EARLIER WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO...BUT SLOWER THAN...THE VARIABLE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN.

WIND RADII AND 12 FOOT SEAS INFORMATION HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON
REPORTS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHIP.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 15.2N 105.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.4N 106.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 15.6N 107.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 15.8N 107.7W 40 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 16.2N 108.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 16.7N 112.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 21/1800Z 16.7N 115.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 22/1800Z 16.5N 119.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE