WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONSON

[Infdidoll]

I think this season may not be too different from 1998, though I'd have to hope it'd be a little busier then that year but we shall see!

Its got fairly deep convection though nothing too extreme by WPAC standards.

I agree with this. On an earlier dead-and-gone invest thread, I posted this: http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... mplete.pdf - That was JTWC's wrap up on the 1998 season. It will be interesting to see if this season is similar.

In 1998, there was the same La Nina situation and Guam experienced a serious drought. This season, we've had La Nina conditions again and Guam has had its worse drought since the 1998 season. I'm expecting conditions similar to 1998...I guess it's both a blessing and a curse.

[KWT]

KWT, sorry for the ignorance. What is a floater?

Ah its just a Satellite that tracks the storm closely.

Infdidoll, yeah though I think 1998 was still a pretty interesting season, there was some big landfalling systems, September was a fairly big month for Japan...whilst the backend of the season was huge for the Philippines with Luzon getting hammered by Zeb and Babs.

Also slightly offtopic, but its good to see the WPAC gets more attention then it used to a few years back now.

[dexterlabio]

I think this season may not be too different from 1998, though I'd have to hope it'd be a little busier then that year but we shall see!

Its got fairly deep convection though nothing too extreme by WPAC standards.

I agree with this. On an earlier dead-and-gone invest thread, I posted this: http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... mplete.pdf - That was JTWC's wrap up on the 1998 season. It will be interesting to see if this season is similar.

In 1998, there was the same La Nina situation and Guam experienced a serious drought. This season, we've had La Nina conditions again and Guam has had its worse drought since the 1998 season. I'm expecting conditions similar to 1998...I guess it's both a blessing and a curse.

Yeah, 1998 and this year are similar. Philippines experienced severe drought due to El Nino phenomenon on the first half of 1998 then at the last 2 quarters of that year, La Nina quickly entered, and remarkable typhoons like Zeb and Babs made landfall in the Philippines. If I am not mistaken, those are typhoons Iliang and Loleng (local names assigned by PAGASA), and Signal # 4 (the highest storm warning signal in the Philippines) was hoisted over some areas in the country. I wonder if we will experience the same fate this time around.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTPN21 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 134.2E TO 14.8N 127.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 110532Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 133.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2N
135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 133.6E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH
OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
110156Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS FLOWING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE 110054Z ASCAT PASS ALSO REVEALS 20-KNOT WINDS ON
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORMING LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONTINUES TO
HAVE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A WESTWARD-PUSHING TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120600Z.//
NNNN

[drdavisjr]

JTWC Upgrades to Tropical Depression

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110552ZJUL10//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 132.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 132.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.2N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.9N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.7N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 16.4N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.7N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 19.5N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.1N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 132.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z
IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 110600).//
NNNN

[Chacor]

JMA 12z:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 14N 133E WNW 10 KT.

[KWT]

A weak TS hitting Luzon, does look like it is strengthening right now and therefore there is every chance it verifies.

[dexterlabio]

There must be an explanation why JTWC doesn't raise the forecast intensities for 03W that much, but we'll see. Usually, the initial estimates always change. I will wait for the prognostic reasoning to be issued.

[KWT]

I can only guess the TUTT nearby may impinge some shear onto the system soon, or possibly simply because the models aren't too keen.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[oaba09]

Latest

It's looking good....It seems like we're finally gonna have our 1st system......

[Chacor]

Nice compact little system.

[HURAKAN]

Computer models

[KWT]

Yeah its looking good to me as well, think we will finally have No.2 in the WPAC very soon.

[P.K.]

18Z:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 14.2N 131.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[KWT]

Pretty decent agreement from the models for a Luzon hit from the models that develop it, wil lbe interesting to see if its as low as what is currently forecasted by some agencies.

[HURAKAN]

35 knots, NRL

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 13.9N 131.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 131.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.6N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.2N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.9N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.7N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.1N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.0N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 21.7N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 131.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM BASED ON A 111201Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING 35 KNOT WINDS ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW 0F
35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111720Z 36 GHZ
AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE THAT TS 03W HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE WITH INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AND TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND A 111600Z SHIP OBSERVATION OF 40 KNOTS IN THE
VICINITY OF TS 03W. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS)
AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AS
THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD, AWAY FROM THE OUTFLOW INDUCING
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 48.
BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 120, TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER LUZON AND CROSSES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WHERE IT
WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASED VWS (20 TO 30 KNOTS). NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH GFS BEGINS TO ERRONEOUSLY
DRIVE THE SYSTEM INTO THE RIDGE IN THE LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.//