EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E
It seems that Six-E won't be even close to Darby and Celia but at least it's something to watch, let's see if shear doesn't tear it apart before those 36 hours of somewhat unfavorable conditions.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139598
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150231
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062010
800 PM PDT WED JUL 14 2010
THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION BUT REMAINS
STRONGLY SHEARED. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST
OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH IN FACT...HAS WEAKENED
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND CONTINUITY. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR REMAINING
QUITE STRONG FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR
LESS. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE SHEAR ABATES...THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER COOL WATERS. THEREFORE...ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
UNANIMOUSLY SUGGESTED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE
CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE...FOLLOWED BY A MORE
WESTWARD MOTION AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED MAINLY BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0300Z 15.2N 107.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 15.6N 109.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.2N 110.7W 30 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 16.7N 112.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 17.1N 114.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 17.5N 118.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 18.0N 122.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 126.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA
WTPZ41 KNHC 150231
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062010
800 PM PDT WED JUL 14 2010
THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION BUT REMAINS
STRONGLY SHEARED. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST
OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH IN FACT...HAS WEAKENED
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND CONTINUITY. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR REMAINING
QUITE STRONG FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR
LESS. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE SHEAR ABATES...THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER COOL WATERS. THEREFORE...ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
UNANIMOUSLY SUGGESTED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE
CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE...FOLLOWED BY A MORE
WESTWARD MOTION AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED MAINLY BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0300Z 15.2N 107.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 15.6N 109.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.2N 110.7W 30 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 16.7N 112.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 17.1N 114.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 17.5N 118.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 18.0N 122.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 126.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139598
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E
WTPZ41 KNHC 150836
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062010
200 AM PDT THU JUL 15 2010
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E IS STILL STRUGGLING AGAINST STRONG
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND ONLY WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
HAS IT BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 2.0
AND 1.5...RESPECTIVELY...BUT A 0352 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT CAUGHT THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION SHOWED NO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN CASE THERE ARE
STRONGER WINDS IN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION...BUT IT IS
REASONABLE THAT THIS COULD BE A 25-KT SYSTEM.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN IT SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 26.5C BY DAY 3. NONE OF THE
INTENSITY MODELS MAKES THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM...BUT THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
STRENGTHENING BY 48 HOURS WHEN THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW OF MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...BUT ITS AVERAGE MOTION IS 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE
CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD COURSE. WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF A WEAK SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...ESPECIALLY AT 72 AND 96
HOURS.
REPORTS FROM THE NOAA SHIP KAIMIMOANA...LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
DEPRESSION...WERE HELPFUL IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0900Z 15.2N 108.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 15.5N 109.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 16.2N 111.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 16.8N 112.9W 30 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 17.2N 114.9W 35 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 17.5N 118.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 17.5N 122.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062010
200 AM PDT THU JUL 15 2010
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E IS STILL STRUGGLING AGAINST STRONG
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND ONLY WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
HAS IT BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 2.0
AND 1.5...RESPECTIVELY...BUT A 0352 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT CAUGHT THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION SHOWED NO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN CASE THERE ARE
STRONGER WINDS IN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION...BUT IT IS
REASONABLE THAT THIS COULD BE A 25-KT SYSTEM.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN IT SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 26.5C BY DAY 3. NONE OF THE
INTENSITY MODELS MAKES THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM...BUT THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
STRENGTHENING BY 48 HOURS WHEN THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW OF MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...BUT ITS AVERAGE MOTION IS 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE
CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD COURSE. WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF A WEAK SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...ESPECIALLY AT 72 AND 96
HOURS.
REPORTS FROM THE NOAA SHIP KAIMIMOANA...LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
DEPRESSION...WERE HELPFUL IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0900Z 15.2N 108.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 15.5N 109.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 16.2N 111.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 16.8N 112.9W 30 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 17.2N 114.9W 35 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 17.5N 118.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 17.5N 122.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
I think odds are this remains just a Tropical Depression now, the shear is looking pretty strong and it looks a mess. More chance of it dying then becoming a TS at the moment.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139598
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 152029
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062010
200 PM PDT THU JUL 15 2010
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
CENTER OF TD-06E HAD TO BE RELOCATED FARTHER NORTH BASED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1623Z ASCAT OVERPASS. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO
INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF 25-30 KT THAT EXTEND 160-250 NMI NORTH
THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH MAY BE DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS. MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS REPORTED A SUSTAINED EAST WIND OF
ABOUT 20 KT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH SUPPORTS THE ASCAT
WINDS SITUATED OFFSHORE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB REMAIN AT T1.5/25 KT. UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES HAVE AVERAGED
T2.5/35 KT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS...WHILE UW-CIMSS AND CIRA-NESDIS
AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN 30 TO 40 KT
DURING THE PREVIOUS 6 HOURS. A BLEND OF THESE DATA WOULD GIVE AN
INTENSITY OF ABOUT 35 KT...BUT GIVEN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
SHEARED ABOUT 85 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/04. THE INITIAL
POSITION AND 12Z POSITION WERE RELOCATED FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE ASCAT WIND DATA THAT SHOWED A MORE
NORTHWARD POSITION. HOWEVER...THIS NORTHWARD JOG IS BELIEVED TO BE
A TEMPORARY MOTION AND THAT TD-06E SHOULD SOON RESUME A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. OVERALL...THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST REASONING. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
THROUGH 48-60 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST...OR EVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST...AFTER THAT WHEN THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OVER COOLER WATER AND BE STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE
DEPRESSION BRIEFLY PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS. MODERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 18-24 HOURS...AND THEN GRADUALLY RELAX TO LESS THAN 15 KT BY
36 HOURS. AS THE SHEAR SLOWLY ABATES...CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DEVELOP CLOSER TO AND PERSIST NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...ALLOWING
FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SSTS COLDER THAN 26C...WHICH
SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS
THE DEPRESSION UP TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BY 24 HOURS...WHEREAS
THE LGEM MODEL KEEPS THE SYSTEM AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION. BOTH THE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS MAKE THE DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM IN 24-36
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE MODELS
AND ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM...WHICH
COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/2100Z 15.9N 108.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 16.4N 109.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 17.0N 111.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 17.5N 113.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 17.8N 115.2W 35 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 18.0N 119.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 123.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WTPZ41 KNHC 152029
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062010
200 PM PDT THU JUL 15 2010
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
CENTER OF TD-06E HAD TO BE RELOCATED FARTHER NORTH BASED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1623Z ASCAT OVERPASS. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO
INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF 25-30 KT THAT EXTEND 160-250 NMI NORTH
THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH MAY BE DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS. MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS REPORTED A SUSTAINED EAST WIND OF
ABOUT 20 KT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH SUPPORTS THE ASCAT
WINDS SITUATED OFFSHORE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB REMAIN AT T1.5/25 KT. UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES HAVE AVERAGED
T2.5/35 KT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS...WHILE UW-CIMSS AND CIRA-NESDIS
AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN 30 TO 40 KT
DURING THE PREVIOUS 6 HOURS. A BLEND OF THESE DATA WOULD GIVE AN
INTENSITY OF ABOUT 35 KT...BUT GIVEN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
SHEARED ABOUT 85 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/04. THE INITIAL
POSITION AND 12Z POSITION WERE RELOCATED FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE ASCAT WIND DATA THAT SHOWED A MORE
NORTHWARD POSITION. HOWEVER...THIS NORTHWARD JOG IS BELIEVED TO BE
A TEMPORARY MOTION AND THAT TD-06E SHOULD SOON RESUME A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. OVERALL...THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST REASONING. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
THROUGH 48-60 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST...OR EVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST...AFTER THAT WHEN THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OVER COOLER WATER AND BE STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE
DEPRESSION BRIEFLY PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS. MODERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 18-24 HOURS...AND THEN GRADUALLY RELAX TO LESS THAN 15 KT BY
36 HOURS. AS THE SHEAR SLOWLY ABATES...CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DEVELOP CLOSER TO AND PERSIST NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...ALLOWING
FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SSTS COLDER THAN 26C...WHICH
SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS
THE DEPRESSION UP TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BY 24 HOURS...WHEREAS
THE LGEM MODEL KEEPS THE SYSTEM AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION. BOTH THE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS MAKE THE DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM IN 24-36
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE MODELS
AND ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM...WHICH
COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/2100Z 15.9N 108.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 16.4N 109.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 17.0N 111.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 17.5N 113.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 17.8N 115.2W 35 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 18.0N 119.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 123.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Looks like there is a chance that during one of those bursting spells probably during Dmax tomorrow we could see our 5th system of the EPAC season but it looks like its going to be remaining on the weak side.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E
The convection is weakening in all sides but it has been strenthening in the center, at least that's what my amateur eyes see, let's see if it persists.
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
369
WTPZ41 KNHC 160231
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062010
800 PM PDT THU JUL 15 2010
THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE
WITHOUT INNER CORE FEATURES. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A FEW
RAINBANDS SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION AND A RECENT SMALL
BURST NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT
THE DEPRESSION HAS WEAKENED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 25 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHEAR HAS APPARENTLY
RELAXED A LITTLE...BASED ON HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS ON SATELLITE
IMAGES. WHILE THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHORT-TERM
INTENSIFICATION...THE DEPRESSION IS ALREADY APPROACHING COOLER
WATERS MAKING STRENGTHENING UNLIKELY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
BECAUSE IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE A CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS FORCING THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD.
ONCE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OCCURS...THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS
SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0300Z 16.7N 109.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 17.3N 110.2W 25 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 17.9N 112.0W 25 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 18.2N 113.9W 25 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 18.4N 115.8W 25 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 18.5N 119.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI
WTPZ41 KNHC 160231
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062010
800 PM PDT THU JUL 15 2010
THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE
WITHOUT INNER CORE FEATURES. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A FEW
RAINBANDS SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION AND A RECENT SMALL
BURST NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT
THE DEPRESSION HAS WEAKENED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 25 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHEAR HAS APPARENTLY
RELAXED A LITTLE...BASED ON HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS ON SATELLITE
IMAGES. WHILE THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHORT-TERM
INTENSIFICATION...THE DEPRESSION IS ALREADY APPROACHING COOLER
WATERS MAKING STRENGTHENING UNLIKELY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
BECAUSE IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE A CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS FORCING THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD.
ONCE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OCCURS...THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS
SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0300Z 16.7N 109.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 17.3N 110.2W 25 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 17.9N 112.0W 25 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 18.2N 113.9W 25 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 18.4N 115.8W 25 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 18.5N 119.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139598
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E
Estelle will have to wait.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E
cycloneye wrote:Estelle will have to wait.
Yep, funny how things work and I'm not surprised at all. A crazy June and so far, a pleasant July!!
Always when you run too fast, you get tired quickly!!!
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062010
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 16 2010
ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION...0512 UTC ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LIGHT WINDS...AND
0605 UTC TRMM DATA SHOWS MULTIPLE EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS. THIS
PATTERN WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES. SINCE
THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND NO LONGER
SATISFIES THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY. AT THIS POINT...REGENERATION APPEARS UNLIKELY SINCE
MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO...JUST AS THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WATERS
COLDER THAN 26.5C. THE REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
BURSTS OF CONVECTION UNTIL IT DISSIPATES IN A FEW DAYS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AT AN AVERAGE MOTION OF 300/9...BUT THIS IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE
REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS...BUT THE MOTION COULD CONTINUE TO BE RATHER ERRATIC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0900Z 17.2N 109.9W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12HR VT 16/1800Z 17.8N 111.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 17/0600Z 18.3N 113.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 17/1800Z 18.6N 115.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 18/0600Z 18.6N 117.7W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062010
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 16 2010
ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION...0512 UTC ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LIGHT WINDS...AND
0605 UTC TRMM DATA SHOWS MULTIPLE EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS. THIS
PATTERN WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES. SINCE
THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND NO LONGER
SATISFIES THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY. AT THIS POINT...REGENERATION APPEARS UNLIKELY SINCE
MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO...JUST AS THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WATERS
COLDER THAN 26.5C. THE REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
BURSTS OF CONVECTION UNTIL IT DISSIPATES IN A FEW DAYS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AT AN AVERAGE MOTION OF 300/9...BUT THIS IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE
REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS...BUT THE MOTION COULD CONTINUE TO BE RATHER ERRATIC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0900Z 17.2N 109.9W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12HR VT 16/1800Z 17.8N 111.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 17/0600Z 18.3N 113.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 17/1800Z 18.6N 115.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 18/0600Z 18.6N 117.7W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 28 guests