WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTHU (1003/04W)

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oaba09
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#41 Postby oaba09 » Sun Jul 18, 2010 4:02 am

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180321Z JUL 10//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 15.6N 121.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 121.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.3N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.6N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.1N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 20.7N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.5N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 26.0N 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 120.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 180513Z AMSR-E 89H IMAGE INDICATED A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL LOCATED
JUST EAST OF OKINAWA. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AND 6-HOUR MOTION BASED ON THE AMSR-E AND 172238Z TRMM
IMAGES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 180148Z ASCAT IMAGE
INDICATING NUMEROUS 25-30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS AS WELL AS DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 25-30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TD 04W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12. MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS ARE LIMITED TO
WBAR AND GFS, HOWEVER, UKMO, NOGAPS AND JGSM MODEL FIELDS SUPPORT
THE CURRENT TRACK. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH
TAU 24 DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. AFTER TAU 24, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REACH A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF
A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 180321Z JUL 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 180330). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//
NNNN
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#42 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 18, 2010 5:06 am

This time JWTC is going with a strengthening system heading towards landfall...lets see if it stays close to the track this time round and doesn't keep to the left!
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Re:

#43 Postby Typhoon10 » Sun Jul 18, 2010 5:21 am

KWT wrote:This time JWTC is going with a strengthening system heading towards landfall...lets see if it stays close to the track this time round and doesn't keep to the left!


Yeah with Conson they originally thought would head up toward HK but in the end went south of Hainan. Will be interesting to see if it stays the same track. But even so, cant see this ever reaching Typhoon status, maybe just STS.
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#44 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 18, 2010 5:25 am

I personally think 55-60kts sounds about right for this one if it takes the JWTC track, though I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up a little left of track.
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#45 Postby oaba09 » Sun Jul 18, 2010 5:28 am

LANDFALL!

Image

<Analyses at 18/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N15°10'(15.2°)
E121°10'(121.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
<Forecast for 19/09 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°35'(15.6°)
E117°35'(117.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
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#46 Postby Chacor » Sun Jul 18, 2010 5:34 am

Just what is PAGASA waiting for on this one?!
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#47 Postby oaba09 » Sun Jul 18, 2010 5:34 am

weird...it seems to be moving WSW....
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Re:

#48 Postby oaba09 » Sun Jul 18, 2010 5:35 am

Chacor wrote:Just what is PAGASA waiting for on this one?!


exactly!....they still consider this as a low pressure area....

no storm warnings have been raised as of this moment....
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Re:

#49 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 18, 2010 5:59 am

oaba09 wrote:weird...it seems to be moving WSW....


Looks to me like its a little north of west but then again its not too easy to tell because convection is developing further south now as well which always makes it difficult to read weak systems. JMA takes this one due west though...wonder what happens this time round!
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W

#50 Postby dhoeze » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:10 am

Image

Source: Wunderground

FORECAST: 04W is expected to track WNW for the first 12 hours, passing close or over Dagupan City later tonight (approx 10PM) and will be over Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan by early tomorrow morning [2AM JUL 19: 16.3N 119.9E @ 55kph]. It will then be moving into the South China Sea tomorrow afternoon, reaching Tropical Storm strength [2PM JUL 19: 17.6N 118.4E @ 65kph]. The 2 to 4-day Long Range Forecast shows 04W intensifying to near Typhoon strength (110 kph) as it approaches the coast of Southern China (near Hong Kong) on Tuesday afternoon [2PM JUL 20: 20.7N 116.2E @ 110kph], and shall make landfall just to the east of Hong Kong approx. 7-8AM on Wednesday [2PM JUL 21: 23.5N 114.6E @ 100kph]. It shall dissipate as it moves overland across mainland China on Thursday. TD 98W's (UNNAMED) consolidating circulation will continue to cover much of Central & Northern Luzon - as the system passes by. Its inner (rain) bands is currently spreading across Nueva Ecija, Tarlac & Pangasinan...while its outer (feeder) bands affecting other parts of Central Luzon including Metro Manila. Moderate winds (30-50 kph) w/ moderate to heavy rains can be expected along its inner bands...while light to moderate winds (10-30 kph) w/ occasional rains is likely along the outer bands. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) near the center of this unnamed depression

Source: typhoon200
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Re: Re:

#51 Postby oaba09 » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:13 am

KWT wrote:
oaba09 wrote:weird...it seems to be moving WSW....


Looks to me like its a little north of west but then again its not too easy to tell because convection is developing further south now as well which always makes it difficult to read weak systems. JMA takes this one due west though...wonder what happens this time round!


yeah....it's quite difficult to read right now.....the fact that it's moving slowly makes it harder to tell...
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#52 Postby oaba09 » Sun Jul 18, 2010 6:18 am

The wind picked up a little bit here.....it's not much but the difference is noticeable....
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#53 Postby Chacor » Sun Jul 18, 2010 8:31 am

WTPQ21 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 15.2N 120.7E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 16.0N 117.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =
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#54 Postby oaba09 » Sun Jul 18, 2010 8:34 am

Latest:
Image

<Analyses at 18/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N15°10'(15.2°)
E120°40'(120.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
<Forecast for 19/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°00'(16.0°)
E117°30'(117.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W

#55 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 18, 2010 9:51 am

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 120.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 120.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.1N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.1N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.2N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.6N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.3N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 25.4N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 120.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM NORTHWEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN
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#56 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 18, 2010 10:57 am

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#57 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 18, 2010 11:14 am

Now forecasted to come close to Hong Kong...and guess what, TD04 is tracking west of track, just like so many storms have across the entire N.Hemisphere in the last month.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W

#58 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 18, 2010 2:55 pm

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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W

#59 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 18, 2010 3:06 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 15.3N 119.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 119.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.7N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.7N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.0N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.3N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.2N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 24.8N 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 27.1N 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 119.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 106 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AS THE SYSTEM CAME OFFSHORE FROM LUZON JUST NORTH
OF SUBIC BAY, INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, TD 04W TRACKED ON A MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION
STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW (AROUND 700 MB). THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED
FROM A 181330Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD OF T1.5 TO
T2.0 AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND FROM THE
181800Z OBSERVATION FROM SUBIC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON A
MORE NORTHWESTWARD PATTERN AS IT INTENSIFIES AND GETS STEERED BY A
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC. TD 04W WILL PEAK AT 55 KNOTS BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR
HONG-KONG AROUND TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH GFS AS THE SOLE OUTLIER RIGHT
OF THE ENVELOPE AND EGRR JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PACK. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO COMPENSATE FOR GFS
HAVING A SEVERE UNLIKELY PULL TO THE RIGHT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z,
191500Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN

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#60 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jul 18, 2010 3:44 pm

WWJP25 RJTD 181800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 15.1N 118.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 16.0N 115.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 39N 142E 42N 143E
47N 153E 60N 165E 60N 180E 40N 180E 37N 160E 39N 150E 39N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 47N 132E EAST 15 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 48N 176E ENE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 26N 126E WNW 15 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 32N 147E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 54N 153E SOUTH 10 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 38N 161E SSE 15 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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