ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[wzrgirl1]

My graphic still shows 40%...wonder why it didn't update.

It takes a few minutes to update.

Yes it did. I just have no patience. Let the real season begin. We need to pace ourselves because the next 10-12 days should be an emotional roller coaster for those in the islands and the east coast of US.

[WeatherGuesser]

This reminds me of a storm that has plenty of time to strengthen even if it does it slowly we could still be looking at a major hurricane sometime during its path

Or one that whizzes itself out, turns and heads for the UK.

[jinftl]

Probably the next 90 days will be a roller coaster....so far out, and with so much uncertainty it is way too soon to be too alarmed about this system, esp. when it isn't a td yet with an organized center. Not too soon to keep a watchful eye, though.

As a rule of thumb, once an area is in the 5-day 'cone of uncertainty', it is time to raise the level of attention and consider/begin preparation...until then, the margin of error once you get out beyond 120 hours is hundreds of miles and is basically speculation. Intensity forecasts beyond that timeframe are even more prone to error.

My graphic still shows 40%...wonder why it didn't update.

It takes a few minutes to update.

Yes it did. I just have no patience. Let the real season begin. We need to pace ourselves because the next 10-12 days should be an emotional roller coaster for those in the islands and the east coast of US.

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

ATTENTION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED IN THE DAYS TO COME ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE BAHAMAS LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

[wzrgirl1]

[quote="jinftl"]Probably the next 90 days will be a roller coaster....so far out, and with so much uncertainty it is way too soon to be too alarmed about this system, esp. when it isn't a td yet with an organized center. Not too soon to keep a watchful eye, though.

As a rule of thumb, once an area is in the 5-day 'cone of uncertainty', it is time to raise the level of attention and consider/begin preparation...until then, the margin of error once you get out beyond 120 hours is hundreds of miles and is basically speculation. Intensity forecasts beyond that timeframe are even more prone to error.





No worries. Not getting alarmed in any way. Just looking at the synoptics down the road and noticing a few things that spark my interest. With the high building, retreating, and then building again, makes for an interesting few days don't you think? You and I both being enthusiasts, and living in one of the highest percentages of hurricane targets (and pretty darn close to each other in proximity) will definitely be keeping a watchful eye I am sure.

[srainhoutx]

For the first 3-4 days, the track looks fairly straight forward. A W to WNW motion seems very reasonable. The very slow movement is interesting and worrisome for our Island neighbors.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Does anyone think it might Do a recurve a bit to late and hit the EC? I go on vacation to Lancaster in 3 weeks. I don't need it to be wrecked.

FUrthermore, I LIVE 60 Miles N of NYC, so i don't need to be pounded with a Cat 3 hurricane.

[jinftl]

Am i wrong to interpret the slow speed as an indication that the ridge steering it is not so strong? I recall waves/systems this far east being steered by strong ridges moving 15-20 mph, sometimes faster. Would that indicate that if this does develop well east of the islands, it is more likely to recurve (if the slow speed is a sign of a weak ridge steering it).

Have there been systems at 35W that were moving 5-10 mph that sped up and made it to the islands or u.s.?

For the first 3-4 days, the track looks fairly straight forward. A W to WNW motion seems very reasonable. The very slow movement is interesting and worrisome for our Island neighbors.

[mountainfrog]

Hmm, I don't trust that thing.
It's now high enough to get kicked into a spin, the ocean is 'hot' for fuelling, no wind shears in sight.
Lot of time to strengthen and do damage in our Caribbean islands.
It does not look good.

m'frog

[Hurricane Andrew]

@Mountain Frog-Yeah, it looks like the N carribean islands will get Pounded. get your hurricane Plans ready!

[jinftl]

Way too soon to say anyone is going to get pounded by an invest 1500+ miles east of the islands which is moving 5-10 mph and isn't organized enough yet to even be a 30 mph td....don't you think?

Many invests come off the coast of africa each season...and lots can happen in the next week....of course hurricane plans should be ready on June 1, but there is a difference between being vigilant and prepared and making dire predictions of doom and gloom this far out.

@Mountain Frog-Yeah, it looks like the N carribean islands will get Pounded. get your hurricane Plans ready!

[lonelymike]

Anybody got a nifty hurricane history map of systems that formed around this area?

[srainhoutx]

Latest 2km View

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 91, 2010080112, , BEST, 0, 91N, 354W, 25, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[jlauderdal]

Does anyone think it might Do a recurve a bit to late and hit the EC? I go on vacation to Lancaster in 3 weeks. I don't need it to be wrecked.

FUrthermore, I LIVE 60 Miles N of NYC, so i don't need to be pounded with a Cat 3 hurricane.

if we new that we would be zillionzires, its too far out, 5 days is about max for anything reliable and that has a 300 mile error on nhc track

[clfenwi]

Anybody got a nifty hurricane history map of systems that formed around this area?

All-time tropical depression and storms that were within 2° of 91L's 12Z best track position:



Created with NOAA's hurricane historical tracks.

[cycloneye]

Anybody got a nifty hurricane history map of systems that formed around this area?

All-time tropical depression and storms that were within 2° of 91L's 12Z best track position:

http://img340.imageshack.us/img340/4945/91lclimatology08011200.png

Created with NOAA's hurricane historical tracks.

There are very powerful ones in those tracks.

[cycloneye]

SSD first dvorak T numbers for 91L.

01/1200 UTC 8.7N 34.4W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic

[OverlandHurricane]

Anybody got a nifty hurricane history map of systems that formed around this area?

All-time tropical depression and storms that were within 2° of 91L's 12Z best track position:

Created with NOAA's hurricane historical tracks.

Yep, there are some blockbusters on that map. Inez, Allen, Andrew, Georges, Ivan the Terrible, Frances...

Also, thank you for linking to the Historic Hurricane Track interactive map. I had no idea that such a thing existed.

[Aquawind]

Those were some mean Hurricanes..We need King TUTT and Mr Shear to join the party and hang with Collin for a couple weeks. Stay Safe Islanders! Warming tops ATM soo slow and westward unfortunately..