ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

Still 20%, not impressive enough yet for code orange.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Cyclenall]

What's everyone's guesses on the percentage of this becoming a tropical cyclone (at 2AM)

I'd still say around 20% at code yellow.

[srainhoutx]

Not surprised this was tagged. The Western Caribbean looks much more hospitable development wise IMO.

[cycloneye]

A note to let know the members that an error occured when the invest was first up as someone at the atcf site clicked 98L instead of 92L. That provoked the first bam models to run as 98L not 92L.Then a few minutes later they deactivated 98L and activate 92L.That is why you dont see 92L on our graphic up in the forum nor at the NRL Navy site.92L will appear when they run the 06z models.

[MWatkins]

This one has my attention as well. Looks like upward motion is on the increase across the Atlantic...more shower and thunderstorm activity on the satellite returns.

Waiting to see if the GFS sniffs anything out from down there.

MW

[StormClouds63]

What's everyone's guesses on the percentage of this becoming a tropical cyclone (at 2AM)

30%.

[ROCK]

I will go 30% however I thought 30% earlier today also. Its got spin and semi banding features...just no LLC attm....if it gets that then game on.....

[Brent]

ABNT20 KNHC 040533
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS ISLANDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[KWT]

Convection still looks like its being made pretty much totally by the TUTTs interaction with the wave, you can tell by the fact the convection is constantly lifting NW towards the TUTT.

I think its got a decent shot in the W.Caribbean but its got to try and stop the convection from moving away off to the NW...

[Recurve]

Bit of a blowup late. Shear seems low in the immediate area.

[KWT]

Yeahits a big blowup but well away from where any of the major Vorticity is, which isn't the typical presentation of a developing system.

We will see, but I don't expect much from this other then a weak system possibly in the W.Caribbean...its got decent conditions for strong convection at least!

[cycloneye]

For the record, here is the 06z Best Track data.

AL, 92, 2010080406, , BEST, 0, 140N, 707W, 25, 1009

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[KWT]

Loads of convection but very little turning ast the moment, actually rather similar to what ex-Colin is doing right now.

Lets see if the convection holds today or whether it dies off yet again.

[Nimbus]

This is not a favorable area of the Caribbean for development historically.
Looks like there might be a new ULL forming out ahead of 92L south of Cuba. Not sure how much that will effect steering or ventilation, my guess is it will swing WNW some later.

The high cirrus clouds are rotating north and clockwise ahead of 92 so there probably is some high pressure over the area. You usually get light shear moving north off the coast of SA in the eastern Caribbean. It will be interesting to see how the upper air pattern evolves the next few days.

[KWT]

Good spot Nimbus, there does look like there is a ULL down there...

Man the Atlantic is just full of ULLs this season, every system has to walk the tightrope it seems to have any shot!

[tailgater]

This is not a favorable area of the Caribbean for development historically.
Looks like there might be a new ULL forming out ahead of 92L south of Cuba. Not sure how much that will effect steering or ventilation, my guess is it will swing WNW some later.

The high cirrus clouds are rotating north and clockwise ahead of 92 so there probably is some high pressure over the area. You usually get light shear moving north off the coast of SA in the eastern Caribbean. It will be interesting to see how the upper air pattern evolves the next few days.

UUL shows up nicely on this loop along with the Invest. Looks like conditions will favor development for the next 24 hrs, then shear should increase as it gets closer to that ULL south of Cuba that is not moving much.

24hour loop

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off


looks a little better orgaized from what I can see on the first Visible pics this morning.

[KWT]

I'm guessing the ULL is the reason why the models aren't really developing this region...

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO DUE
TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[KWT]

That ULL is certainly an issue for this one, though depends on the track. Stil lthis one is certainly firing up lots of convection if nothing else and it looks very good indeed in that respect.

Shear looks like it kicks in between 78-80W so that leaves probably 24hrs as someone else said to get going, which whilst maybe a little unlikely, you can't rule it out...