WPAC: Ex-Typhoon KOMPASU (1007/08W)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
theavocado
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 162
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 22, 2009 8:54 pm
Location: NOLA

Re:

#41 Postby theavocado » Sat Aug 28, 2010 6:43 pm

StormingB81 wrote:I wish they had a map so I can see how close to OKinawa they are forecasting it to be


For some reason the NRL and JTWC pages have been awful lately. But the FNMOC page has been good.

Looks to be rolling RIGHT over Okinawa....looks like you might get your wish after these last few years of misses....

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5676
Age: 42
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

#42 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 6:50 pm

Guess i should start preparing now
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2856
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#43 Postby supercane » Sat Aug 28, 2010 7:01 pm

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 282357
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EIGHT (08W) SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP082010
1000 AM CHST SUN AUG 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM 08W NEWLY FORMED NORTHWEST OF GUAM...

AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 08W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.1 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 680 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
740 MILES NORTH OF YAP.

TROPICAL STORM 08W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 08W IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CHST POSITION...20.1 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
137.1 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
2 PM CHST.

$$

STANKO
0 likes   

User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5676
Age: 42
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

#44 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 7:09 pm

Im ready and prepared for it...Just hope we dont lose power..
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#45 Postby Chacor » Sat Aug 28, 2010 7:19 pm

I do hope the JMA opens their eyes and at least starts bulletins on this at 00z.
0 likes   

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4218
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 08W

#46 Postby Macrocane » Sat Aug 28, 2010 7:26 pm

I didn't see this coming! It looks pretty well organized, the JTWC forecast has a peak intensity of 85 kt but if it develops more rapidily than expected it could be the first major typhoon.
0 likes   

User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5676
Age: 42
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

#47 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 7:33 pm

Well they say Okinawa is 80 mph winds now wonder if it could be stronger...
0 likes   

User avatar
theavocado
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 162
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 22, 2009 8:54 pm
Location: NOLA

Re:

#48 Postby theavocado » Sat Aug 28, 2010 7:45 pm

Chacor wrote:I do hope the JMA opens their eyes and at least starts bulletins on this at 00z.


I know, this looks better than Lionrock now!

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5676
Age: 42
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

#49 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 7:52 pm

You think this maybe a typhoon by tomorrow?
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#50 Postby Chacor » Sat Aug 28, 2010 8:06 pm

Perhaps from the JTWC, but the JMA is currently being very obstinate with this system.
0 likes   

User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5676
Age: 42
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

#51 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 8:13 pm

Well i cleaned everything off my patio have water food and flash lights and everything so im done and prepared.
0 likes   

Typhoon Hunter
WesternPacificWeather.com
WesternPacificWeather.com
Posts: 1215
Age: 40
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 08W

#52 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sat Aug 28, 2010 8:18 pm

It'll be interesting to see how this system interacts with Lionrock. ECMWF 12z run certainly shows some sort of Fujiwara interaction going on.

Not sure why JMA is sleeping over this one, it looks very good at the moment!!

Well i cleaned everything off my patio have water food and flash lights and everything so im done and prepared.


Good idea to get everything prepped - as you well know Okinawa has incredible infrastructure. It's actually the most typhoon hardened place I've ever been with street light poles thicker than a tree trunk!
0 likes   
James - Documenting typhoons...

http://www.youtube.com/TyphoonHunter

User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5676
Age: 42
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

#53 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 8:25 pm

Yep. I just don;t like waiting till the last minute..plush ow quick this intenified. I wish my wife didnt have my camera in the states..lol
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#54 Postby Chacor » Sat Aug 28, 2010 8:32 pm

WTPQ22 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 20.4N 136.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 300000UTC 22.0N 133.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Finally something from JMA.
0 likes   

User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5676
Age: 42
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

#55 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 8:33 pm

They only have it as a TD? wow. Looking at it it looks great
0 likes   

User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5676
Age: 42
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

#56 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 8:58 pm

I wonder what the 1100 advisory will say
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#57 Postby Chacor » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:12 pm

Image
0 likes   

Typhoon Hunter
WesternPacificWeather.com
WesternPacificWeather.com
Posts: 1215
Age: 40
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 08W

#58 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:21 pm

Heading into a region of almost zero shear as you can see on this chart:

Image

I fully expect this one to ramp up impressively given the already speedy development!
0 likes   
James - Documenting typhoons...

http://www.youtube.com/TyphoonHunter

User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5676
Age: 42
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

#59 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:26 pm

Well guess we are in for some fun here in a couple of days
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2856
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#60 Postby supercane » Sat Aug 28, 2010 10:01 pm

WTPN32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 20.7N 136.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 136.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 22.3N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.8N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 25.3N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 27.2N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 31.0N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 34.1N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 37.3N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 135.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Image
0 likes   


Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest