ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[Gustywind]

2010 = the year of shocking surprises. Every time we write off a system as dead, it develops or bombs out. If we get bullish, it fades away.

Agree, no rules for 2010, full of surprises in every ways and September... is tommorow. Monitor every twaves, becoming suspicious day after day. Be on our guard this season we should continue monitor closely the Atlantic.

[Wx_Warrior]

Fiona had the "look," those storms in the gulf had the "look."

Looks are deceiving.

[KWT]

They are in this case I think wx warrior, it does appear to be a decent system but Vort seems pretty unimpressive and there doesn't appear to be much going on just yet, though thats not to say it can't get going either, we are pretty close to the peak now where such systems have a decent enough chance of developing.

[ConvergenceZone]

Are there any models developing this? Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like the various models seem to be drying things up after Fiona

[HURAKAN]

Great structure

[ROCK]

Fiona had the "look," those storms in the gulf had the "look."

Looks are deceiving.

since when did you jump off the development band wagon? give it time to move more west...the CMC developes it...

[hurricaneCW]

This one looks pretty good for what it is. There's even some convection close to the center. I know models don't really develop it and I can see why. I don't see why it can't develop further down the road though and unlike Fiona, it doesn't have to trail close behind a powerful hurricane.

[Wx_Warrior]

No way am I jumping off. Just "the look" stuff doesn't mean anything this season.

[Weatherfreak000]

No way am I jumping off. Just "the look" stuff doesn't mean anything this season.

Ummm...yes it does. It very much so definitely does.

[ColinDelia]

Do you mean the 0z CMC, Rock? The 0z CMC develops something at 30 w in 120 hours. 98L is already passing 30 W and heading west at 15 mph.

But if you have access to the 12z, my bad. and .. please share!

[Weatherfreak000]

This TW definitely doesn't have the structure of a 10% development chance. I would bump up to 30%.

[TheBurn]

[KWT]

Great structure but it has got alot of SAL to its north right now which is highly likely being injested around the weak circulation that may indeed be present.

Not to say it won't strengthen however, its quite possible it will develop but I'm just not expecting much from it just yet...one for down the line perhaps?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Remains at 10%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF GRAND TURK...AND ON TROPICAL
STORM FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...
AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[ROCK]

This TW definitely doesn't have the structure of a 10% development chance. I would bump up to 30%.

agree this has structure and now the CMC blows it up half way across the pond moving west....carib bound? looks like it to me....

[ColinDelia]

12z CMC develops it but it develops it right where it is in 66 hours. The actual wave is moving westward at 15 mph

[ROCK]

12z CMC develops it but it develops it right where it is in 66 hours. The actual wave is moving westward at 15 mph

so its a few hours off....

[Duke95]

So it's obvious (or obviously confusing) that the CMC is actually developing the wave that has been discussed at length on the TT board and not 98L.

Right?

[tolakram]

CMC develops darn near everything. Best bet is when a couple of reliable models show some development.

[ColinDelia]

Update on some graphics.

Here is 98 now.


Here is 98L 6 hours ago. Not much change the past 6 hours


SAL


Vorticity