ATL: KARL - Models

[cycloneye]

12z CMC makes a trip thru the Greater Antilles,then intensifies in the Bahamas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[perk]

Let's see....Last Night the GFS had Galveston now it has Mexico. Got to love it.

KFDM what's your gut feeling on 92L direction wise.

[Wx_Warrior]

and looks to be moving north and cutting in front of Igor @ the end of run.

[Vortex]

12Z Nogaps takes system to eastern cuba/se bahamas at day 5...very consistent with this.



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Vortex]

Nogaps H+168 approaching S.FL and strengthening.


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, these model runs are all over map!

[cycloneye]

The first GFDL run: Ends on the eastern tip of Cuba.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

WHXX04 KWBC 091744
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 9

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.4 60.4 280./ 5.0
6 12.0 60.6 199./ 4.6
12 11.9 60.7 257./ 1.8
18 11.7 60.7 171./ 1.9
24 12.2 60.8 347./ 5.3
30 12.7 61.0 336./ 4.6
36 13.1 61.0 8./ 4.8
42 13.8 61.5 317./ 8.3
48 14.5 62.3 310./10.4
54 15.3 63.0 323./10.1
60 16.0 64.4 298./15.7
66 16.5 65.6 290./12.2
72 16.9 67.3 283./16.9
78 17.0 68.4 279./11.2
84 17.2 69.6 278./11.5
90 17.3 70.7 276./ 9.7
96 17.6 71.9 282./12.5
102 18.4 73.1 304./13.3
108 18.7 73.9 291./ 8.6
114 19.0 74.7 290./ 7.7
120 19.3 75.6 291./ 9.1
126 19.8 76.2 311./ 7.7

[HURRICANELONNY]

Models are useless. That's why there all over the map. Better off watching your favorite cartoon when we were kids. Until there's a name there is NO game.

[SouthFLTropics]

The first GFDL run: Ends on the eastern tip of Cuba.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

WHXX04 KWBC 091744
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 9

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.4 60.4 280./ 5.0
6 12.0 60.6 199./ 4.6
12 11.9 60.7 257./ 1.8
18 11.7 60.7 171./ 1.9
24 12.2 60.8 347./ 5.3
30 12.7 61.0 336./ 4.6
36 13.1 61.0 8./ 4.8
42 13.8 61.5 317./ 8.3
48 14.5 62.3 310./10.4
54 15.3 63.0 323./10.1
60 16.0 64.4 298./15.7
66 16.5 65.6 290./12.2
72 16.9 67.3 283./16.9
78 17.0 68.4 279./11.2
84 17.2 69.6 278./11.5
90 17.3 70.7 276./ 9.7
96 17.6 71.9 282./12.5
102 18.4 73.1 304./13.3
108 18.7 73.9 291./ 8.6
114 19.0 74.7 290./ 7.7
120 19.3 75.6 291./ 9.1
126 19.8 76.2 311./ 7.7

If I'm not mistaken that last heading of 311 would be on a track towards South Florida...Hmmm...

SFT

[KWT]

Modelsre all over the place, the main problem is not the longer range where the models actually nearly all agree on a W/WNW motion, but in the first 72hrs where some models track NW/NNW whilst others barely get it beyond WNW.

Big uncertainties folks...leads to entertaining threads!

[Bailey1777]

i wouldn't want to venture into specific areas but there is a significant lat. gain, if that trend continues ...uh..oh.....

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO 12z - 48hrs

[Wx_Warrior]

[Wx_Warrior]

[Wx_Warrior]

[Vortex]

battle of the models is on....bid discrepencies

[Wx_Warrior]

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, that last one looks like it's heading west into the Pacific. won't even emerge in the BOC.

[Wx_Warrior]

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

that last one makes Igor look like it will head into the GOM