WPAC: FANAPI - Tropical Depression (1011/12W/Inday)

[Infdidoll]

This one finally looks like a good system...Unlike the last two that came through here, this one is moving slowly which gives it plenty of time to develop solid convection and intensity. May finally have a REAL West Pac typhoon...

[StormingB81]

and with the outter bands looks like rain tomorrow..

[StormingB81]

Nevermind I was looking at the forecast and I think the ywere talking about the typhoon and not what we would feel here nevermind...disreguard.

[KWT]

This one finally looks like a good system...Unlike the last two that came through here, this one is moving slowly which gives it plenty of time to develop solid convection and intensity. May finally have a REAL West Pac typhoon...

There really hasn't been an awful amount of good quality this year in the WPAC, seems like the Atlantic has hogged it all thus far!

Still this one has time on its side unlike a few of the others recently and so probably will have every chance of strengthening into a strong system IMO.

[supercane]

WDPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
335 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
151009Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT TIGHTLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM ALL QUADRANTS WITH DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY DUE TO A WEAKENING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PGTW OF 35 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TS 12W IS EXPERIENCING IMPROVED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL APPROACHING FROM THE EAST AND A TUTT CELL MOVING AWAY
FROM THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE STARTING TO
ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. OVERALL THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM
CENTER, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH OF JAPAN. NEAR
TAU 12, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE STEERING
RIDGE CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SLOW AND TRACK POLEWARD. WITHIN THIS
WEAKENED STEERING ENVIRONMENT, TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW
DIGGING DOWN TOWARD THE SYSTEM, AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE DUE TO THE TUTT CELL TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48 THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDS BACK IN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
C. BY TAU 72, TS 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE REBUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN CHINA. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE
TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TRACK PHILOSOPHY, BUT
CONTINUES TO DEPICT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST. GFDN AND GFS DEPICT A SLOWER TURN, WHILE ECMWF AND
NOGAPS DEPICT A MORE RAPID TURN. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A QUICKER TURN
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

ECMWF model runs show this moving north near Okinawa then going westwards.

Forecasts are pretty unanimous of this becoming a strong cyclone.

[dexterlabio]

Atlantic has beaten the Western Pacific this season. They already have 4 major systems and in the Pacific, I just don't know if one cat3+ typhoon existed since this year has started. But I have this feeling the WPAC would catch up by this month up to November, just like what happened in the 1998 typhoon season.

[senorpepr]

From PAGASA:

Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWO
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Tropical Storm "INDAY" (FANAPI)
Issued at 10:45 p.m., Wednesday, 15 September 2010
"INDAY" has intensified into a Storm as it continues to move in a northwestward direction.
Location of Center: (as of 10:00 p.m.) 530 km East of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 21.1°N, 127.4°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph
Movement: Northwest at 7 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Thursday evening: 475 km East Northeast of Basco, Batanes
Friday evening: 460 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes
Saturday evening: 535 km North Northeast of Basco, Batanes

No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised

This weather disturbance is still far to affect any part of the country.

However, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) will continue to affect Luzon and Visayas and bring scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms over these areas.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin alert to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.

[phwxenthusiast]

speaking of PAGASA... what kind of track is this?!?!?!



i mean come on, did they just extrapolate using the present movement??

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1011 FANAPI (1011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 20.9N 127.6E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 21.9N 128.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 171800UTC 23.1N 126.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 181800UTC 23.8N 123.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

[StormingB81]

Looking at the maps some now have this taking a hard left turn and going into Tawian.

[Infdidoll]

Yeah, with that track, its future might look a little less promising for the West Pac seeing a typhoon larger than a Cat 1...but it's always bad news when a typhoon of any size hits Taiwan. Lots of people there don't have the means to weather these storms.

[StormingB81]

It is moving Northeast now. Here lies what path it wants to take and when and if it will turn, Most models now all say it will move to the west. just depends where.

[StormingB81]

I Think we will be looking at a typhoon by the 5pm forcast.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1011 FANAPI (1011) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 21.5N 127.8E FAIR MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST 24HF 170000UTC 22.5N 128.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 180000UTC 23.5N 126.2E 110NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 190000UTC 24.2N 123.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT

[Chacor]

Looks to be on a solid strengthening clip, now up to STS. JMA has adjusted its forecast significantly upwards.

[cycloneye]

Finnaly, it looks like a system that can be the strongest this season and rack up ACE units that the WPAC needs to surpass the EPAC.

[supercane]

SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 005
WTPN31 PGTW 152100
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 21.0N 127.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 127.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.6N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 22.2N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.8N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 23.2N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 23.7N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 24.0N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 25.5N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 127.5E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN



239
TCNA21 RJTD 160000
CCAA 16000 47644 FANAPI(1011) 14215 11278 13244 235// 90207=

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 21.5N 127.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 127.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 22.0N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.5N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.0N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.5N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.9N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.0N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 25.8N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 127.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH
OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.//

[cycloneye]

Does anyone wants to update the WPAC ACE units on the thread at Talking Tropics forum?

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=107339&p=2067077#p2067077