The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.Lisa forms while potential trouble lurks for Gulf or southeastAllan Huffman
Igor is heading off into extra-tropical history as it passes near Newfoundland this morning. The system should be extra-tropical and off the NHC books later today, so I will not spend any more time on Igor.
Tropical Storm Lisa formed late yesterday, initially as a depression and then this morning as our 12thnamed storm of the season and 9thsince August 21st, quite an impressive run. Lisa has winds of 40mph and is moving N already at 5 mph. Lisa is already pretty far north for as far east as she is and is also already moving N. Wind shear could increase in the next few days and it appears that Lisa is destined to be a non-story in the weather world really. So I won’t spend much time on here either.
The global models continue to want to develop at least one if not two system in the Caribbean and move them north into the Gulf Coast and/or southeast US in the next 10-14 days. However, exactly how this happens and if it happens is still up to debate. The models have been showing widely varying scenarios with multiple tropical waves being involved and scenarios ranging from a trip across the Yucatan into Mexico to a northeast track across Cuba and well off the southeast coast. It all depends on exactly how the system develops and where and what happens across North America. The global models are coming into agreement on a trough developing across the eastern half of the country which would argue that anything far enough north in the western Caribbean, would likely be drawn north into this trough, either resulting in a central or eastern Gulf hit (including Florida), or possibly a trip across south Florida and even potentially being entrained into an upper low over the southeast US, which would mean a 2ndhit in the Carolinas. The other option is that the system stays far enough south to miss this trough and likely move west into Central America or Mexico as a ridge rebuilds over the central US in the 11-15 day range. It certainly is a situation that bears watching and may represent the best threat for a US landfall to date, if we get a system to develop. The NHC has classified a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean as a code yellow with a 20% chance of development in the next 48 hours.
http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-rale ... -southeast
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