ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[ROCK]

I think the focus should be more east around the Caymans....the Cozumal ortex has all but spun out....

again I dont understand why the BAMMs are initializing that far east....

[artist]

btangy is da man.

i wonder what potential exists for this storm to develop into a deep nor'easter for portions of the mid atlantic? There is some of the coolest air of the season over the great lakes by friday....so the interaction may add fuel to the system i would think.

I think one of the discussions I read mentioned when it gets to N Carolina it could transition.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, you think that the focus of the invest should be more east?

[img]http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc10/ATL/96L.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20100927.1845.goes13.x.vis1km_high.96LINVEST.25kts-1003mb-190N-860W.100pc.jpg[/img

I think eventually it will end up farther west because there is such a large area of cyclonic turning that a weakk LLC if by the Cayman islands should rotate NW till it deepens..

[cpdaman]

btangy is da man.

i wonder what potential exists for this storm to develop into a deep nor'easter for portions of the mid atlantic? There is some of the coolest air of the season over the great lakes by friday....so the interaction may add fuel to the system i would think.

I think one of the discussions I read mentioned when it gets to N Carolina it could transition.

right but will it have much strength...i.e winds 40-50 or just a ho hum moderate low pressure

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... 4km_visir2

If you step back and look from a wider view, it really looks like things are coming together.

[Vortex]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... 4km_visir2

If you step back and look from a wider view, it really looks like things are coming together.

I just thought the same thing

[tgenius]

I refresh these links minutes after I read the last ones and it feels like hours.. all for a bit of rain!

[cyclonic chronic]

what is it that will pull it north? the low over the s.e. u.s., the front in the gufl, or the front approaching the mid-west?

[KWT]

right but will it have much strength...i.e winds 40-50 or just a ho hum moderate low pressure

Interestingly both the ECM and GFS suggest this has a fairly tight NW section so we will see, 40-50mph gusts should occur I suspect once this turns ET or gets close to it regardless of whether it develops or not.

The interesting thing is this really isn't all that far away from where Irene formed and that got stronger then expected.

[wxman57]

I don't think it has 48 hours over the Caribbean. Models have it by south Florida by 18Z Wed (EC/GFS). So only 36 hours left in the Caribbean, or even a bit less. I'd put a "center" in between the two convective blobs, though I can't find any evidence of an LLC on surface obs yet. Not much time to consolidate before it passes south FL and gets caught up in the cold front.

Should be a sheared low/storm as it passes south FL, with most, if not all heavy squalls and strong wind east of the track. So if the center was to pass over or near the SE FL Peninsula, then most of the heavy rain and wind could miss FL to the east.

Oh, and I see the NHC just re-ran the models with a center over the Yucatan near 18.4N/88W. I don't see anything there.

[Vortex]

IMO, NHC will probably go straight to TS warning for the keys/se coast of fl in the morning...depending on trends tonight we could see additional watches

[SouthFloridawx]

Has the moisture from the Pacific been streaming in all day today?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

[SouthFLTropics]

IMO, NHC will probably go straight to TS warning for the keys/se coast of fl in the morning...depending on trends tonight we could see additional watches

I think the next DMax will be key...If it fires up some heavy convection we could maybe see some more strengthening than forecasts. Right now I'm leaning towards an Irene type track but maybe a little more to the East, moderate to strong TS.

Off topic...It's pouring rain here at my office in Sebastian, heavy lightning and thunder. Checked our rain gauges a little bit ago and the first shower that passed dropped 2 inches in about 40 minutes.

SFT

[SouthFloridawx]

I think farther east near the Cayman Islands... Looking at that shot from father back that was posted.

[KWT]

Should be a sheared low/storm as it passes south FL, with most, if not all heavy squalls and strong wind east of the track. So if the center was to pass over or near the SE FL Peninsula, then most of the heavy rain and wind could miss FL to the east.

That would be good news if that was to occur, the models suggest its going to be a very tight call though in that respect, certainly tight enough for the models to not have a good grip on the exacts till we are near that hour...

Of course as we've seen before what was expected to be a sheared storm by the model becomes an unexpected hurricane/or stronger storm then expected...things are made even more complex with interactions with frontal systems.

[HURAKAN]

I have learned that LLC take their time to develop but when they decide to, they can wind up really fast.

[JPmia]

PREDICT NCAR-GV flight summary today. Mission is wrapping up and we found a bit of surprise...

We found an elongated circulation stretching from the two main convective blobs from 19N, 85W to 18.5N, 80.5W. There is a large region of southwesterlies and westerlies N of Honduras and a very well defined circulation above the boundary layer at 700 mb. There is a very sharp wave or warm front-like axis at 925 mb with strongly veering winds with height along this boundary. Maximum near-surface winds are about 25 knots. This data surprised us as we expected to find a broad circulation, as seen in the models, but it appears something may be quickly developing around the vicinity of these two convective blobs in the NW Caribbean. If the circulation can consolidate some, then Nicole, or "Matthew's daughter" as we're calling it, may be born soon.

We'll be flying this same region tomorrow.

Those are great summaries and sort of like having a back channel around the models and the other tropical sources! THANKS!

[KWT]

Off topic...It's pouring rain here at my office in Sebastian, heavy lightning and thunder. Checked our rain gauges a little bit ago and the first shower that passed dropped 2 inches in about 40 minutes.

SFT

Wow thats quite impressive, whilst obviously not related to 96L, if it does track even a small amount to the west of what the models forecasted then that could lead to some real flooding issues down the line.

The only thing I will say is in these patterns the storms tend to go east of what is expected, doesn't always work out that way but its enough of a possiblity to keep a close eye on.

[Aric Dunn]

I don't think it has 48 hours over the Caribbean. Models have it by south Florida by 18Z Wed (EC/GFS). So only 36 hours left in the Caribbean, or even a bit less. I'd put a "center" in between the two convective blobs, though I can't find any evidence of an LLC on surface obs yet. Not much time to consolidate before it passes south FL and gets caught up in the cold front.

Should be a sheared low/storm as it passes south FL, with most, if not all heavy squalls and strong wind east of the track. So if the center was to pass over or near the SE FL Peninsula, then most of the heavy rain and wind could miss FL to the east.

Oh, and I see the NHC just re-ran the models with a center over the Yucatan near 18.4N/88W. I don't see anything there.

I agree in general but I see one possible problem with that. If we dont get a well defined LLC or a established system then the through has to manage to pull the entire monsoon trough (which extends from the east pac to Jamaica) north ward and stretch it out. that takes time so it needs to consolidate or the northward motion is going to be much slower as we have seen thus far, the whole mess has not moved in 3 days. therefore we could be looking at Wednesday/ Thursday time frame. the models 2 days ago had it approaching florida tomorrow. they have been trending later. Given its present state I give it at least till late Wednesday.

[Vortex]

Should be a sheared low/storm as it passes south FL, with most, if not all heavy squalls and strong wind east of the track. So if the center was to pass over or near the SE FL Peninsula, then most of the heavy rain and wind could miss FL to the east.

That would be good news if that was to occur, the models suggest its going to be a very tight call though in that respect, certainly tight enough for the models to not have a good grip on the exacts till we are near that hour...

Of course as we've seen before what was expected to be a sheared storm by the model becomes an unexpected hurricane/or stronger storm then expected...things are made even more complex with interactions with frontal systems.

Going to be very close 25 miles may make a huge difference