ATL: OTTO - Post-tropical - Discussion

[btangy]

Look near 50W, 10N. Something interesting is lurking there. PREDICT's GV data is coming in and we're also seeing pretty strong vorticity in this region... possibly quite a bit more than analyzed. Still need to see more of the data to determine whether this is a circulation or more of a elongated convergence zone.

[Gustywind]

[expat2carib]

Thanks btangy! Looks suspicious. Please keep us informed. If this one starts spinning up and heading WNW I might be in the path at 14.4-60.59 pretty soon

[Vortex]

12Z GFS looks to take at least a piece of this wave/low towards the Caribbean…something to watch closely as this could be the spark that ignites the western Caribbean in about a week.

[canes04]

Need Floater, who usually makes that call?

[gatorcane]

why are models unanimously dropping this system ultimately? Seems to be organizing and upper-level conditions look good for the next couple of days.

Is it because it is going to hit a TUTT in the Eastern Caribbean?
Dry air?

[abajan]

:uarrow: Thanks btangy! Looks suspicious. Please keep us informed. If this one starts spinning up and heading WNW I might be in the path at 14.4-60.59 pretty soon

So would I at 13.08N 59.58W!

[Gustywind]

[jconsor]

Yes, it is the wave around 50W that NHC has outlooked, and the one that the ECMWF and WRF ensemble develop:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/to ... /loop.html
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWFTRO ... floop.html

Look near 50W, 10N. Something interesting is lurking there. PREDICT's GV data is coming in and we're also seeing pretty strong vorticity in this region... possibly quite a bit more than analyzed. Still need to see more of the data to determine whether this is a circulation or more of a elongated convergence zone.

[Vortex]

I think were going to see some of this energy make it towards the western carribean.....Tutt to the NE may keep it in check for awhile...

[srainhoutx]

Yes, it is the wave around 50W that NHC has outlooked, and the one that the ECMWF and WRF ensemble develop:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/to ... /loop.html
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWFTRO ... floop.html

Look near 50W, 10N. Something interesting is lurking there. PREDICT's GV data is coming in and we're also seeing pretty strong vorticity in this region... possibly quite a bit more than analyzed. Still need to see more of the data to determine whether this is a circulation or more of a elongated convergence zone.

WRF is faster developing this it appears. Thanks jconsor for the link.

[Gustywind]

[Vortex]

12Z canadian really cranks this up and sends it into the bahamas...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Vortex]

cmc would seem abit to far west for october but who knows...euro had it in the bahamas the other day...

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 301728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 18N MOVING W
AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 41W-48W...AND FURTHER E FROM 10N-15N
BETWEEN 37W-42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH TWO TROPICAL
WAVES...IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA ARE HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[SouthDadeFish]

Why do they say slightly better organized but still 30%?

[Gustywind]

That's maybe not enough to be more than 30% lol

[SouthDadeFish]

I think it would be considering they issued a tropical cyclone formation alert...

[Weatherfreak000]

why are models unanimously dropping this system ultimately? Seems to be organizing and upper-level conditions look good for the next couple of days.

Is it because it is going to hit a TUTT in the Eastern Caribbean?
Dry air?

Models have been somewhat suspect on developing systems lately. So long as the NHC keeps positive in their outlooks I am seeing a good chance at Otto soon.