ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc10/ATL/98L.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20101009.1245.goes13.x.vis1km_high.98LINVEST.25kts-1009mb-140N-786W.100pc.jpg

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It appears classic banding may be starting. Shear to the north is dropping rapidly. I think this has well started it's trend towards tc status. I think we may have Paula soon.

slow down there, we have a ways to go before paula, nhc doesnt like it for at least 48h

[jlauderdal]

This system, should it develop, is not likely going to threaten the northern Gulf Coast. Take a look at the upper level wind forecast across the Gulf for the next 2 weeks. A 60-90 kt westerly wind from the central Gulf northward. Nothing can get through that. Any movement of 98L northward brings it into the westerly jet and turns it NE toward Cuba then probably across the Bahamas. Can't rule out a threat to the southern FL Peninsula, though.

Taking a look at a surface plot, there's definitely a broad surface circulation. I'd put the center a good bit SSW of the NHC estimate, closer to about 12.5N/79.5W. Pressures are 3mb lower down there than up near 14N.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/98L.gif

ivan can rest easy

[SweetHomeBamaGOM]

all models plot 98L through a Hebert box. We may have Paula named today.

[Evil Jeremy]

all models plot 98L through a Hebert box. We may have Paula named today.

1: As of the latest SFWMD plot, only the HWRF actually takkes 98L through the box.
2: This is faaaaar from becoming a named system. Has a lot of work to do.

[jlauderdal]

all models plot 98L through a Hebert box. We may have Paula named today.

yep, we may have Paula, the sun may not set today

[SweetHomeBamaGOM]

the clouds are starting to band all pointing towards the center (except sw corner,but it will soon)

all models send this through the western Hebert box

http://orcasystems.ca/zoo.jpg

closed circulation has been seen on sat scans.

hope this helps

edited by staff. It's called the Hebert Box, not the Herbert Box. Also, have no idea what you were trying to say about U/L shear with an ASCAT graphic, but the shear to the north is NOT almost gone - far from it.

[SouthDadeFish]

The center is still very broad, and needs much more thunderstorm coverage to be classified as a tropical depression. The current convection is very fragile and could collapse due to dry air and wind shear. If we see convection coverage continue to expand today, while maintaining this contracting center, then that is a good indicator that development is likely. Chances of anything be classified today are very low.

[cyclonic chronic]

i think the best shot for development will be tommrow when that disturbance/wave to 98L's east start to interact. maybe late tonite.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

[boca]

all models plot 98L through a Hebert box. We may have Paula named today.

yep, we may have Paula, the sun may not set today

I think tomorrow it might be a depression or Paula.I does have a nice mid level spin to it.

[SouthDadeFish]

i think the best shot for development will be tommrow when that disturbance/wave to 98L's east start to interact. maybe late tonite.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

I agree. I think that added moisture will be the catalysis for development. I think we're 36 hours away from this starting to wrap up and be on the verge of a depression.

[HURAKAN]

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[SFLcane]

IR loop

[cycloneye]

Discussion about 98L by Dr Jeff Masters.

Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:48 PM GMT on October 09, 2010

An area of disturbed weather (98L) is in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of the coast of Nicaragua. The disturbance has a modest and slowly increasing amount of intense thunderstorms, and is showing some spin. The disturbance is drifting northwest at less than 5 mph, and is under a moderate 15 knots of wind shear. Dry air in the Western Caribbean has been interfering with development, but 98L is now generating enough thunderstorms that the environment in the Western Caribbean is moistening, which will support further development. Pressures at Colombia's San Andres Island near the center of 98L are not falling, and satellite imagery show disturbed weather only over a very modest portion of the Caribbean, so any development today will be slow to occur.

Forecast for 98L

98L is likely to bring heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua on Sunday, and possibly the Cayman Islands and Jamaica as well. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, through Tuesday. This should allow 98L to reach tropical depression status early next week, though NHC is only calling for a 20% chance of 98L becoming a tropical depression by Monday morning. The GFDL and HWRF models are the most aggressive developing 98L. These models predict 98L will intensify into Tropical Storm Paula by Monday, move northwest and then north, and pass through the Cayman Islands on Monday night and Tuesday morning as a tropical storm. Paula would then hit western or central Cuba as a hurricane on Tuesday or Wednesday, brush the Florida Keys, then accelerate northeastward through the western Bahamas on Wednesday or Thursday. This is probably too aggressive of a forecast, given 98L's current small size and lack of organization. The UKMET model also develops 98L, but keeps the storm in the Western Caribbean over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model keeps 98L weak and predicts a more west-northwesterly motion into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF models do not develop 98L. One argument against the development of 98L would be that the phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is currently promoting sinking, stable air over the Western Caribbean, which tends to make the atmosphere dryer and more stable. However, I think that 98L will spend enough time in the Western Caribbean to overcome the relatively stable, dry air, and become a tropical depression or tropical storm by Tuesday. The likelihood of the storm hitting Cuba versus moving more to the west-northwest and hitting Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is difficult to call at this point.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm surprised no recon is scheduled over the next two days....

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm thinkin we could see code Orange at 2pm given the trend of increasing convection and the broad circulation.

[HURAKAN]

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[cycloneye]

I'm surprised no recon is scheduled over the next two days....

Todays TCPOD has not been released yet. It may mean that they have a plane to go in the next 2 days.Lets see when it comes out what it says.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm surprised no recon is scheduled over the next two days....

Todays TCPOD has not been released yet. It may mean that they have a plane to go in the next 2 days.Lets see when it comes out what it says.

Oh thank you, I did not know that. Please keep us updated when it comes out I see no reason why they wouldn't schedule recon with multiple models forecasting a hurricane from an organizing disturbance.

[cycloneye]

Saturdays TCPOD

Plane going on Monday afternoon,of course if necessary.

NOUS42 KNHC 091500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 09 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-130

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16.0N 82.0W AT 11/1800Z.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[SouthDadeFish]

That center fix location would assume about a due NW movement from the current center estimates.