ATL: PAULA - Models

[Vortex]

Here's my take...

-Currently the system continues to slowly organize...
-The environmental conditions will become very favorable over the carribean once we mix out the dry air
-The season has a second spike between October 10th-20th with around the 17th being the peak day in the spike.
-Climatology indicates most storms forming in this vicinity during this time of year have a high probability to threaten or make landfall over western cuba/sfl/bahamas...


Against development
-models lacking consistancy with development on again off again
-Initially dry air intrusion but slowly mixing out
-Shear late in the period

[SouthDadeFish]

00Z GFS rolling...

[Macrocane]

I would like to see first GFDL,HWRF,GFS,CMC,NOGAPS,UKMET and ECMWF get bullish on this, to then jump to the development bandwagon.

LOL do you want to see them ALL on board or just some of them? With 4 of those 7 I would say that development is likely, if 5 of them show development then it's very likely and with 6 or 7 development is pretty sure.

[SouthDadeFish]

GFS not showing much, although it does show the upper air pattern becoming more favorable in the W Carib through 60 hours.

[gatorcane]

GFS not showing much, although it does show the upper air pattern becoming more favorable in the W Carib through 60 hours.

Yes I noticed that. The 500mb steering would steer this system into the nw Caribbean then eventually north an northeast into south Florida and/or Cuba

The 200mb winds are not as harsh now over much of the nw caribbean an se gom by day 4. The trend is definitely towards less shear.

Will really be watching this system very closely.

[fci]

After the model debacle of a couple of weeks ago forecasting Hurricane Nicole, then Otto and Paula in the Carib; count me as skeptical on how the models are forecasting systems in this area.
Something just wasn't right before and I can't count on them being right now.
As it is October, I can't ignore this prime area for development; but I cast a very skeptical eye to the models....

[Vortex]

noticed that as well gator...something to watch closely over the weekend as the pattern would likely send it across cuba/fl/bahams late wednesday/thursday...

[SFLcane]

00z HWRF goes insane with this.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/invest98l.2010100900/invest98l.2010100900_anim.html

[Vortex]

SFLcane, I was extremely surprised to see the intensity given by the HWRF...With the models so far its all or nothing...track looks reasonable but way too close for SFL...this is going to be something to keep a very close eye on here in southern FL...Climatology supports the HWRF as do the environmental conditions so it can be just dismissed imo...

[Vortex]

00z HWRF takes a major hurricane over western cuba then a cat 2 across the FL straits...


Loop:


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Vortex]

00Z GFDL blows paula up with a max intensity of 134kts moves it over central cuba/fl straits/bahamas...very similar to the HWRF just a tad further east...




http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/ ... _nest3.png

[Vortex]

BOTH HWRF/GFDL make this a very powerful hurricane..If this is just 50-100 miles further west once exiting cuba SFL would have a real problem...

[Vortex]

Both models also imply that the organization trend should continue and really ramp up by later Sunday...

[Vortex]

00Z GFDL loop:


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Vortex]

00Z ECM at H120 just N of Honduras



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP120.gif

[Vortex]

H144 over Western cuba heading NE...ECM continues to bounce around with development and track but a little stronger this eun and takes it across wetern Cuba and into the bahamas just missing SFL...

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP144.gif

[Vortex]

It appears quite possible that Paula of unknown intensity will pass over western Cuba, FL Straits/SFL, and into the Bahamas late Wednesday into early Thursday..

[Vortex]

00Z UKMET a little stronger this run...

H60

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal060.gif

[Vortex]

Generally a tight consensus here...

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_98.gif

[KWT]

Broad idea from the models appears to be to take this system ~NNW/NW towards Cuba then recurve it into the westerlies around 25-27N and recurve it. The problem is it wouldn't take all that much at all for this to threaten S.Florida...