WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[RobWESTPACWX]

Sounds like they are upgrading it....

[RobWESTPACWX]

I think someone already mentioned this, but JMA has a TD stamped there.

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120851ZOCT2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 11.4N 140.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 140.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 11.5N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 11.6N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 11.9N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 12.8N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 14.8N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.7N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.6N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 140.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130000Z IS 08 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND
140300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
120900Z OCT 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
120900).//

[RobWESTPACWX]

Could be typhoon here, anyone know what this name will be?

[Typhoon Hunter]

Could be typhoon here, anyone know what this name will be?

Next name on list is Megi, contributed by S Korea.

Interesting forecast from JTWC calling for quite steady strengthening heading towards the Philippines. It's rough chasing terrain up there that's for sure!

[Macrocane]

Megi is the next name on the list...I think this one could become the next major.

[HURAKAN]

Could be typhoon here, anyone know what this name will be?

Megi

[RobWESTPACWX]

LOL, I don't understand how WU has the track up before JT has put it on there site, but here it is.

[Macrocane]

There you got 3 answers there's no doubt that we storm2k members like to help each other.

[RobWESTPACWX]

And thanks as well. Is the I hard or soft? Another name I can kill in the coming days.

I'v heard about chases in the NE PI, not easy country to say the least, plus the infrastructure in that region is overall not the best. On that note if your going pick me up some Jollibee! My fav is the YUM with Cheese.

[RobWESTPACWX]

:lol: There you got 3 answers there's no doubt that we storm2k members like to help each other.

That's why I love this site, I'm learning much more than I am contributing, its great! Every time you guys post a link or something that I'v never seen, its in the favs!

[Infdidoll]

Hey! I'm awake! Something new to track!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Hey infidoll havent seen you in a bit.

I guess it will end up being NE Luzon, Kind of my thinking on the video yesterday, I was thinking the move N but far enough where it will go in to the Luzon strait...

[Typhoon10]

Hey! I'm awake! Something new to track!

Morning! Oh yes, looks very interesting, could be heading towards the SCS so you should be safe.

By the way, do you and Rob know each other? Both affiliated to AF?

[Typhoon Hunter]

And thanks as well. Is the I hard or soft? Another name I can kill in the coming days.

I'v heard about chases in the NE PI, not easy country to say the least, plus the infrastructure in that region is overall not the best. On that note if your going pick me up some Jollibee! My fav is the YUM with Cheese.

Here's an idea of what it's like chasing up there - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLCi9qLH880

Our Jeepney (yes, we used a Jeepney to chase a storm) broke down, got hit by live power lines, swept through a town by a flash flood, stuck in a landslide and almost swept away by another flood! Beautiful part of the country though and the people as always are awesome!

Jollybee - I like the spaghetti and meat sauce they do

Back on topic, ramping up nicely:

TXPN23 KNES 130314
SIMWIR

A. 15W (NONAME)

B. 13/0230Z

C. 12.0N

D. 141.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...MICROWAVE PRESENTATION SHOWS WELL DEFINED LLC IN AMSU
PASSES ALONG WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE VISIBLE ANIMATION SHOWING MULTIPLE
WELL ORGANIZED BANDING FEATURES AND A SMALL ELONGATED BUT PERSISTENT
CDO FEATURE ALL POINT TO RAPID ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE.
EIR BANDING WRAPS .7 ON LOG10 FOR DT OF 3.0. MET IS 2.0. PT IS 2.5. FT
BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

12/2151Z 12.4N 141.2E AMSU
13/0007Z 11.9N 141.0E AMSU


...GALLINA

[supercane]

Pronunciation seems relatively straightforward with short vowels. Refer to the HKO pronunciation file (requires RealPlayer). Meaning from the same site is is "A catfish. A large fish found mainly in rivers, lakes, etc, with long whiskers round its mouth. It is related to the feelings of getting wet."

Prognostic reasoning:
WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
260 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 122231Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ITOP C-130 OBSERVATIONS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW
AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT
CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST ISSUANCE OF THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
LOW- TO MID- LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD. TD 15W IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU
48, AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 15W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING
RIDGE. POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. IN THE LATER
TAUS, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RE-BUILD TO THE NORTH, FOLLOWING THE
PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ALLOW TD 15W TO TURN MORE WESTWARD.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, GFDN
ERRONEOUSLY TURNS THE SYSTEM IMMEDIATELY NORTHWARD. THIS FORECAST IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS.//
NNNN

Not surprisingly, ASCAT missed.

[RobWESTPACWX]

You used a jeepney.. LOL nice! Yes off topic, but wow, if anyone has a story of what was the oddest thing you chased a storm in, I think you take the cake.

And no T10, we have never met, but she is the one that introduced me to this site on WU I been posting my videos and non-such on WU for the the past several years, but there coverage in the WP is sketchy at best.

[RobWESTPACWX]

O and that is just an amazing video as well TH, I envy you on your travels.

[RobWESTPACWX]

When GFS starts to say a storm is going to form and be very strong, I listen. It definatly is one of my more favorable models.

[Typhoon10]

When GFS starts to say a storm is going to form and be very strong, I listen. It definatly is one of my more favorable models.

Rob for us numpties, whats GFS and can you send the link please?