BOB: Cyclonic Storm JAL

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[GCANE]

Impressive convection and core; but same problem like Tomas.

He is running away from the anti-cyclone to his NE.

His PV column will get compressed the farther he moves away from it and as a result will have a hard time spinning up.

His needs a ton of latent heating to get a small increase in circulation.

[Chacor]

At 1800z, 45 kt from IMD.

[supercane]

RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL STORM ‘JAL’ ADVISORY NO. SIX ISSUED AT 0000 UTC OF 06TH NOVEMBER 2010 BASED ON 2100 UTC CHARTS OF 05TH NOVEMBER 2010.

THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘JAL’ JAL MOVED WEST-NORTWESTWARDS, INTENSIFIED INTO SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY CENTERED AT 2100 UTC OF 5TH NOVEMBER 2010, NEAR LAT. 10.00N AND LONG. 86.00E ABOUT 550 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (43418), 700 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279) AND 850 KM SOUTHEAST OF NELLORE (43245)

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 55 KNOTS. GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 990 HPA.

ANIMATION OF PAST 24HRS INSAT IMAGERIES INDICATES INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND CLOUD MASS IS MORE ORGANISED. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.5. THE CLOUD DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WITH WELL DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION BETWEEN LAT.6.00 TO 15.50 NORTH AND WEST OF LONG 89.00 EAST. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -800 TO -850C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS SUGGEST THAT. THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY FURTHER. THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH TAMIL NADU AND SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS BETWEEN PUDUCHERRY (43331) AND NELLORE (43245) CLOSE TO CHENNAI (43279) BY 7TH NOVEMBER 2010 NIGHT.

BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:

Date/Time(IST)
Position
(lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)
Intensity
05-11-2010/2100
10.0/86.0
90-100 gusting 110
Severe Cyclonic Storm
06-11-2010/0300
10.5/85.5
100-110 gusting 120
Severe Cyclonic Storm
06-11-2010/0900
11.0/85.0
110-120 gusting 130
Severe Cyclonic Storm
06-11-2010/1500
11.5/84.0
110-120 gusting 130
Severe Cyclonic Storm
06-11-2010/2100
12.0/83.5
120-130 gusting 140
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
07-11-2010/0900
13.0/82.0
120-130 gusting 140
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
07-11-2010/2100
14.0/80.0
120-130 gusting 140
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
08-11-2010/0900
15.0/79.0
50-60 gusting 70
Deep Depression
08-11-2010/2100
17.0/77.0
40-50 gusting 60
Depression

REMARKS

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS). 24 HOUR TENDENCY OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOWS NEGATIVE OVER NORTH OF THE SYSTEM DURING PAST 24 HOURS . SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 290-310 C AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL 90-100 KJ/CM2 WHICH IS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL IS (15-20×10-5S-1) AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE IS ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 150N AT 200 HPA LEVEL.

[Chacor]

00z warning (03z issue) due any time now.

[srainhoutx]

Another good catch from microwave pass...

[supercane]

WTIO31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (JAL) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (JAL) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 10.5N 85.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5N 85.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 11.3N 84.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.1N 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 12.9N 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 13.8N 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.1N 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.9N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 85.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (JAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 060019Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT TIGHTLY
CURVED LOW LEVEL BANDING WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE IN THE 060019Z 37H SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS
FROM DEMS, KNES, AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS EXPERIENCING SOME PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY DUE TO
MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, STRONG
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN QUADRANTS,
HAVE ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY. TC JAL IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TO-DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ALONG A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 05B IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI, INDIA JUST AFTER TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA (35 KNOTS) AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIA, BUT COULD RE-INTENSIFY AS IT RE-EMERGES IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ARABIAN SEA AFTER TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THIS FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.//
NNNN

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Not a bad looking system right now but unless that microwave presentation changes its rather unliukely to get much above 75kts. Still a west moving 75kts is still more then enough to cause problems.

[HURAKAN]

if it's at hurricane intensity, this is poorest microwave I have seen for a hurricane

[KWT]

Yeah its totally lopsided, that being said Tomas was effectivly the same for a time and it managed to get to 65kts with a similar presentation andf eventually managed to stack itself much better allowing it to get to 75kts...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

The IR look to this system actually is pretty decent right now just seems to be lacking something in terms of its core...

[HURAKAN]

shear is quite strong

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Macrocane]

Jal's winds may not be the greatest problem it will cause, it is producing very strong convection so rains may be the real threat in Sri Lanka and India. By the way, the 00z Euro showed Jal emerging in the Arabian Sea and re-intensifying before making landfall somewhere between India and Pakistan.

[GCANE]

The shear is kicking up a massive high rain-rate MCS / TC.

Flooding will be extreme in India.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Chacor]

Currently 55 kt from IMD.