ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[wxman57]

also Ivan the last CMC run was jacked....didnt you say it was last years winner??

couldnt help myself...

Actually, the Euro did the best much of the time in 2009. You can check out the NHC verification page. Seems like a reasonable track if the ridge over the Gulf coast slips east as models are forecasting. But it'll come down to the timing of the ridge moving east, the system developing (or not) and how fast it moves.

[KWT]

Still a tough call, need to see where any system actually forms because right now its something of a convective mess with several regions of convection behind the wave axis.

[xironman]

Do you know the pressure on that last frame at landfall? I see WAY too many black circles.

From looking at the more detailed map, I think the pressure is 967 millibars.

On day 7 it is 956

[KWT]

The ECM sure does go mental with this system once it gets into the Gulf, most models suggesting strengthening in the Gulf, seems reasonable enough. The GFDL reminds me alot of Cindy in the Gulf of Mexico in 2005.

[Nimbus]

945.8 MB's would probably classify as a cat 3 hurricane not cat 4. The wave action would help disperse the oil, but as the storm approaches from the south the winds will be blowing west for the preceding 48 hours so where will the oil slick be? The slow motion over the gulf with low shear is a bad scenario in any model.

[srainhoutx]

HPC thoughts this morning...

MEANWHILE MODELS/ENSEMBLES DEFINE A RATHER WIDE SOLN
ENVELOPE WITH A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BY FAR THE
DEEPEST AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE GULF. ASIDE FROM THE FAST
CANADIAN MOST GUIDANCE BECOMES SLOWER THAN YDAYS TPC/HPC
COORDINATED TRACK... SO CONTINUITY IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE SLOWER BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE FCST.

[Aquawind]

This is just tooo weird with the GFS confused and the others calling for a significant threat. The others are being fairly consistant as well and to think we are going to be putting up with this for a few more months. The GFS upgrade sounds nice but, if it still is clueless without a core and these other models verify so early out that will be a great dissapointment.

I would like to read a model overview about what the heck is going on with this split. We have always known waiting for a single defined LLC is best for the models, but why are some hell bent on a serious GOMER without one.. Highly Disturbing..

[Jagno]

Hey Folks, there is alot more at stake here this year and I'm sure that all of these people who assemble the computer models given the information they have at hand are being pressured into best guest scenarios due to the situation in the GOM. Until this mess is resolved I certainly wouldn't want to be in their shoes with all of this federal government as well as international pressure being put on them. They can only do so much yet people want them to play God. Most of us have been here for years and we know how difficult it is for these models to accurately predict anything this far out, especially a system that hasn't even evolved yet.

[lonelymike]

:eek:

That's sick, and it takes forever to move across the Gulf.

The Euro also destroyed NO in an earlier run and then backed off to nothing. Forecast idea seems reasonable as wxman57 says. The skill at intensity forecasting still needs some work.
Where is Ortt when u need him

[gatorcane]

06Z GFDL and HWRF have a significant system in the Central GOM headed north. The GFS is still not biting on this though and has been very consistent from run-to-run in not developing 93L more than a weak TS.

GFS, NOGAPS, and CMC are showing a decent amount of shear lingering in the GOM which is the reason why I think they are not really developing 93L that much. So what I am seeing is that when 93L is in the W. Carib, conditions might be the best they will be for 93L.

I do think the HWRF (and GFDL) are overdoing intensity as we have seen them do in the past. I think they are better models to look at when we actually have a hurricane, not the disorganized mess I am seeing in the Caribbean at the moment.

The ECMWF is way too inconsistent to pay attention to at the moment so would disregard it until we see consistency like the GFS is showing.

[lonelymike]

Do you know the pressure on that last frame at landfall? I see WAY too many black circles.

From looking at the more detailed map, I think the pressure is 967 millibars.

On day 7 it is 956

986. I blew it up 400 percent

[Blown Away]

IMO, it appears the dominant center will be the MLC just S of Haiti, per the NHC 8am graphic. All these models are initializing from a location @200+ miles to the SW, so IMO there are going to be significant changes. Also the area below Haiti is not moving very much.

[gatorcane]

IMO, it appears the dominant center will be the MLC just S of Haiti, per the NHC 8am graphic. All these models are initializing from a location @200+ miles to the SW, so IMO there are going to be significant changes. Also the area below Haiti is not moving very much.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes but while the models don't agree on development, what they do agree on is a strong Western Atlantic ridge through the Bahamas to the north holding strong for the next 4-5 days at least. So that will keep 93L on a WNW to W course, no matter if there are center relocations or not. I am 100% sure this is NOT a Florida system even if it develops. There is a decent chance though, that the system will remain quite disorganized as it pass FL to the south, south of Cuba -- the wrap around flow on the NE side of the system is likely going to usher in *alot* of moisture and increase POPS for Southern FL. That is all I see out of this for Florida.

[ronjon]

Yes but while the models don't agree on development, what they do agree on is a strong Western Atlantic ridge through the Bahamas to the north holding strong for the next 4-5 days at least. So that will keep 93L on a WNW to W course, no matter if there are center relocations or not. I am 100% sure this is NOT a Florida system even if it develops. There is a decent chance though, that the system will remain quite disorganized as it pass FL to the south, south of Cuba -- the wrap around flow on the NE side of the system is likely going to usher in *alot* of moisture and increase POPS for Southern FL. That is all I see out of this for Florida.

GC I agree for the most part although the storm, if it develops, could eventually be a threat to the western panhandle of FL.

[Blown Away]

Gatorcane, I agree on the ridge and 93L generally moving westward for the next few days. IMO the current 10 mph motion is generous, the MLC area has not moved very much since last night. The trough is going to dig in and I don't see 93L making past 87W as nothing more than a TS. If the NHC has let go with LLC to the SW of the MLC solution we need to see a new set of models, 200 miles makes a big difference IMO.

[Aquawind]

I am 100% sure this is NOT a Florida system even if it develops.

Pro Mets would rarely say 100% with anything.. Timing can change everything and we don't even have a LLC yet...... You can go ahead and beat your chest being the all knowing forecaster but..whatever.

[Blown Away]

I am 100% sure this is NOT a Florida system even if it develops.

Pro Mets would rarely say 100% with anything.. Timing can change everything and we don't even have a LLC yet...... You can go ahead and beat your chest being the all knowing forecaster but..whatever.

Who's quote?

[Ntxwx]

Who's quote?

I am 100% sure this is NOT a Florida system even if it develops.

Gatorcane's quote.

[Blown Away]

Look how far the 00z and 06z models are initializing from the MLC below Haiti.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[bvigal]

Looks like no big change for the 12z:
AL, 93, 2010062312, , BEST, 0, 156N, 766W, 25, 1010,