ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Uncontaminated data

We have Richard.

122400 1610N 07917W 9624 00410 0094 +186 +154 158039 040 058 035 00
122430 1611N 07918W 9628 00407 0094 +186 +155 155039 040 060 014 00

[ronjon]

Getting that faning appearance of cirrus outflow in all quads now. Upper level anti-cyclone appears to be right on top of the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[cycloneye]

Yes,TS Richard at 11 AM.

AL, 19, 2010102112, , BEST, 0, 165N, 807W, 35, 1006, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[HURAKAN]

Richy or Ricky? Either way, Richard

[Vortex]

from this point on should strengthen at a decent clip....

[KWT]

Yeah surface estimate of 38kts combined with a FL wind of 40kts is enough to justify a 35kts and therefore an upgrade.

Still looks lopsided to me but I'd expect that will change once the system picks up some more westerly motion instead of easterly...

[hurricaneCW]

Finally something to fuel my weather interests considering there's nothing going on but a mild weather pattern for the east. It looks very ragged right now and cloud tops are warming a bit. It will be interesting to see how strong its able to get, and if the models are correct.

[abajan]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_pages/thumbs/small_size/20101021.1215.goes13.x.vis1km.19LNINETEEN.30kts-1005mb-173N-809W.100pc.jpg

Richy or Ricky? Either way, Richard

Dick’s fine too. Then again, we’ve already had our “D” storm.
Back more on topic, I hope folks all along the GoM are keeping a close eye on this and not assuming that because the US has been spared so far this year, this will continue to be the case. Not making any dire predictions here — just a word to the wise.

[ronjon]

Florida media are already talking about this system.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/weather/tropical-depression-19-in-western-caribbean-could-threaten-florida/1129438

[KWT]

Most models do still suggest a track towards the Yucatan and quite a few do curve it up through the landmass, the hurricane models are much stronger with this storm and therefore are further right but we all know both those models do have a right bias.

I suspect it'll be fairly difficult for it to miss the Yucatan but we will see!

[Cyclone1]

If it could passover Florida as a Yucatan-thrashed shapeless mound of convection, that would be nice. It hasn't rained all month.

[caneman]

Having seen many a storm pass over the Northern flat part of the Yucatan, you can forget about it doing much weakening of a storm that passes over it.

[cycloneye]

NRL with Richard header.

[KWT]

Lopsided still cycloneye but importantly convection is over the LLC which should allow for a steady strengthening phase to occur with TD19/Richard.

As for the Yucatan, depends on just how long it stays over there really...

[calmbeforestorm1]

Lopsided still cycloneye but importantly convection is over the LLC which should allow for a steady strengthening phase to occur with TD19/Richard.

As for the Yucatan, depends on just how long it stays over there really...

If it even goes over the Yucatan

[KWT]

Very true, still I think odds are pretty high this at least brushes the Yucatan, esp knowing the right bias the GFDL/HWRF have and how agressive those models are in terms of strengthening. We will see though!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Just realized...we have a storm that could threaten the panhandle.....where's Ivan?!

Haven't seen him in this discussion at all. Must be busy with school.

[Dr Dvortex]

It's got what I call that Tropospheric Split!!!!

[dwsqos2]

The pressure gradient is as flat as a pancake.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Since they have posted the name Richard on the NRL site, it looks like an upgrade to tropical storm will be imminent.