ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

[Ivanhater]

A lot of these models are hinting at this getting shoved back and possible redevelopment. Something to keep in the back of the mind.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 110053
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0053 UTC WED AUG 11 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE FIVE (AL052010) 20100811 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100811  0000   100811  1200   100812  0000   100812  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    26.0N  84.0W   27.2N  85.5W   28.4N  86.5W   29.5N  87.5W
BAMD    26.0N  84.0W   27.1N  85.6W   28.5N  87.4W   29.7N  88.7W
BAMM    26.0N  84.0W   27.2N  85.5W   28.6N  86.8W   29.7N  87.8W
LBAR    26.0N  84.0W   26.6N  85.4W   27.5N  86.8W   28.3N  88.1W
SHIP        30KTS          32KTS          36KTS          39KTS
DSHP        30KTS          32KTS          36KTS          39KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100813  0000   100814  0000   100815  0000   100816  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    30.5N  87.7W   32.2N  87.2W   33.6N  85.8W   33.7N  85.3W
BAMD    30.9N  89.5W   32.9N  89.7W   35.1N  87.1W   36.7N  82.8W
BAMM    30.8N  88.0W   32.2N  87.2W   33.1N  85.2W   32.6N  83.8W
LBAR    29.0N  89.0W   30.4N  90.2W   32.2N  90.1W   34.3N  87.8W
SHIP        44KTS          52KTS          57KTS          57KTS
DSHP        33KTS          27KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  26.0N LONCUR =  84.0W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  25.6N LONM12 =  83.5W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  25.6N LONM24 =  82.6W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[Dean4Storms]

00z Tropicals another slight shift east???

[Ivanhater]

[Dean4Storms]

CMC over Mobile at 00z as well?

The Bamm models went eastward and so did the 18z GFDL.

[Stormcenter]

Wasn't the CMC over Fl. on the last run?

CMC over Mobile at 00z as well?

The Bamm models went eastward and so did the 18z GFDL.

[Dean4Storms]

[Dean4Storms]

Wasn't the CMC over Fl. on the last run?

CMC over Mobile at 00z as well?

The Bamm models went eastward and so did the 18z GFDL.

I thought it was over MS, could be wrong. They are starting to run together in my mind!! LOL

[ROCK]

the GFDL total blows this up which with such limited time over water I highly doubt it will have time.

[Ivanhater]

00z NAM completely dissipates this as it heads for the Florida Panhandle

[TwisterFanatic]

Lol... Well NAM you were good for a few days anyway..

[Dean4Storms]

One thing to take from that run of the NAM is that it too was bringing TD5 further eastward. Wonder if they are seeing either the ridge weaker along the coast or further eastward.

[gatorcane]

Latest GFDL backs of on intensity also, no longer calling for a hurricane:

THE LATEST
GFDL MODEL RUN HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT FROM ITS PREVIOUS INTENSITY
FORECAST AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS...ICON.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0234.shtml

[Ivanhater]

GFS never really stacks it but heads to Mobile

[Ivanhater]

GFS is still trying to push this south into the Gulf again

[Ivanhater]

Stronger round 2

[South Texas Storms]

which was does it head on its second landfall?

[Ivanhater]

Back north into Mobile/Pensacola

[TwisterFanatic]

Hmm... 2 runs in a row that show that.

[ROCK]

NAM might be right.....its looking very sickly and has lost organization with no convection....I am thinking more into FL Panhandle now....