ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[cyclonic chronic]

definately looks like an inner core trying to form, by the looks of that loop. if it doesnt ingest some of the SAL to the east, could ramp up a bit.

[cycloneye]

The track is a little more south than the 5 AM one to account for the relocation more south of the center.

[cycloneye]

Interesting part of 11 AM discussion.

IF DANIELLE RECURVES FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...WHICH THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT...
THEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF EARL COULD BUILD BACK IN SOONER AND
KEEP EARL ON A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THAN INDICATED BY
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.

[blazess556]

12z nam is pretty darn south.

[Gustywind]

[supercane]

Earl's circulation appears better defined and not as elongated on the recent ASCAT pass:

[KWT]

Close enough for NHC to decide recon is needed, track does looks a touch shifted to the south though the basic set-up aloft hasn't changed for a long ole time...but for sure any more southward shift makes things interesting for the NE Islands.

[cycloneye]

Finnally,NHC updated their forecast track of 5 days.

[Blown Away]

Interesting part of 11 AM discussion.

IF DANIELLE RECURVES FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...WHICH THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT...
THEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF EARL COULD BUILD BACK IN SOONER AND
KEEP EARL ON A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THAN INDICATED BY
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.

Personally I think that is what will happen but I don't think it changes the overall recurve solution. May get a little farther west and very close to the islands.

[HurrMark]

From Jeff Masters:

Tropical Storm Earl
Tropical Storm Earl developed late yesterday afternoon, one week ahead of when climatology suggests the fifth named storm of the year should occur in the Atlantic. Earl is currently very weak and ragged looking, thanks to dry air and wind shear. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows an upper level trough of low pressure to the north of Earl is bringing a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear to the northern portion of the storm, though the center of Earl is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The shear has injected dry air into the storm, disrupting the circulation. As a result, Earl has a rather disorganized clumpy appearance on satellite imagery, and the center jumped 30 miles to the south this morning to reposition itself farther from the shear, and closer to the main region of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the west of Earl, and this dry air will likely be the primary inhibiting factor for development over the next three days. Sea surface temperatures are warm, around 28°C. Earl is too far from land for the Hurricane Hunters to reach, and the first flight into the storm is not scheduled until Sunday afternoon.

Forecast for Earl
Wind shear is predicted to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. SSTs will steadily warm--to 28°C on Friday, and 29°C by Sunday.. Earl may cross Danielle's cold water wake at some point, which could interrupt development. Dry air will probably be the main inhibiting factor for Earl over the next three days. In combination, these factors should allow for a slow intensification of Earl into a hurricane 4 - 5 days from now.

History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 15 - 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, but the long term fate of Earl remains unclear. The storm is being steered by the same ridge of high pressure steering Danielle, and Earl will initially follow a track similar to Danielle. As Earl approaches the central Atlantic 4 - 5 days from now, the storm will encounter the same mid-Atlantic trough that is expected to turn Danielle to the north. This trough should be able to turn Earl far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is unclear at this point whether this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Earl out to sea, east of Bermuda. The long range 6 - 10 day forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models have consistently been calling for Earl to turn north and follow Danielle, bringing Earl very close to Bermuda next week. This is a reasonable forecast, since Danielle is large enough and strong enough to create a low pressure "path of least resistance" for Earl to follow northwards towards Bermuda.

[KWT]

I think I agree with Jeff the most likely solution is for this one to curve up WNW/NW between 55-60W then probably to move close to due north between 60-65W...probably as a hurricane though its not strengthen much at all right now.

Wonder if this stays as a low-middle TS whether that will make any difference at all to the track in the next few days at least?

[wxman57]

Did a little research on all storms in August/September that have tracked within 65nm of Earl’s current location. There were 40, 8 of which struck the U.S. Only one made it to the Gulf, and only 2 reached the Caribbean.

But there were some quite notable storms among those 8:

Galveston 1915 hurricane
1928 Okeechobee hurricane – hit Puerto Rico as a Cat 5 first, the only Cat 5 ever to hit PR
Great 1938 New England Hurricane
Isabel of 2003
Fran of 1996
Gloria of 1985
Connie in 1955
1893 Long Island Hurricane

That means about 20% of those storms struck the U.S, 2.5% reached the Gulf and 5% reached the Caribbean.

Looking at the 12Z GFS, it takes Earl much farther west before it turns north - between 70W-75W. I think there's a fair chance of such a track. And if it gets that far west then it wouldn't take much for it to hit the U.S. Mid Atlantic Coast or southern New England.

[KWT]

Given the trends that are occuring with Danielle and the upper trough I'd be inclined to agree with you Wxman57, this may get closer to the east coast then was expected a couple of days ago.

Whats interesting is how much those figures and storms would change if you inputed the expected location from the NHC of Earl in say 3 days time?

[wxman57]

Given the trends that are occur[img][/img]ring with Danielle and the upper trough I'd be inclined to agree with you Wxman57, this may get closer to the east coast then was expected a couple of days ago.

Whats interesting is how much those figures and storms would change if you inputed the expected location from the NHC of Earl in say 3 days time?

You mean like this? Center point is now 18N/55W, the 72hr forecast area. Great Miami 1926 hurricane and Andrew added in:

[TheBurn]

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 07, 2010082618, , BEST, 0, 151N, 380W, 40, 1003, TS, 34

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

No change,40kts.

[CrazyC83]

26/1745 UTC 15.7N 38.2W T2.0/2.5 EARL -- Atlantic

[KWT]

Finally above 15N according to Best Track!

Doesn't seem to be picking up quite as much latitude as was expected though the difference at this stage is really rather small...effectivly this one will carry on about a 270-280 track for the next 2-3 days.

[cycloneye]

Looks a bit more rounded than this morning when it was stretched.

[KWT]

Yeah that looks much better Hurakan, its lost that linear look it had 12-24hrs ago. Its got a decent shape to it as well right now so I'd imagine its starting to strengthen again. Center looks like its somewhere around 15.5N so gaining a little bit of latitude but will ptobably stay on a 275-280 heading.