ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[KWT]

This presentation is starting to look very eye catching now, I suspect this will very quickly ramp up to a hurricane...

Think we are going to finally see our Caribbean Major!

[neospaceblue]

Based on those Recon reports, I would put out a Special Advisory at 6 pm with an intensity of 50 kt.

Considering that they're doing intermediate advisories and they mentioned in the discussion that he could undergo RI, I don't think they'll issue a Special Advisory unless something extreme happens.

And here is a list I compiled of some of Tomas's predecessors:

1. Hurricane Seven [1912] - 100kts / 965mbar
2. Cuba Hurricane of 1932 - 115kts or 140kts / 915mbar
3. Hurricane Greta [1956] - 120kts / 970mbar
4. Hurricane Kate [1985] - 105kts / 954mbar
5. Hurricane Lenny [1999] - 135kts / 933mbar
6. Hurricane Michelle [2001] - 120kts / 933mbar
7. Hurricane Paloma [2008] - 125kts / 944mbar

I have a feeling that this could easily take out the Cuba Storm, Lenny, Michelle and Paloma.

[weathrlover]

Not to being up the "e" word, but it looks like something is trying to form there.

What do you mean? Tell more for the newbies that are here.

eyewall

[KWT]

Ps, no reason why this doesn't become a 4/5 in the Caribbean based on the current presentation it has, this could be the storm of the season in terms of land impacts to somewhere down the road in the Caribbean.

[SouthDadeFish]

Nice flare up of convection just E of the center:

[HurrikaneBryce]

Sorta reminds me of Dean back in 2007.

[Vortex]

Euro continues to advertise the connection may not fully get the job done next weekend and gets left behind as very strong ridging builds in to the N…..The long term is anything but set in stone…

[KWT]

The presentation just screams of a strengthening system with every chance of becoming a major hurricane down the line...

Central Caribbean certainly needs to watch this, gotta hope the system avoids Haiti...

[J&AinDC]

We are scheduled to fly in to St. Lucia tomorrow afternoon (2pm).

Do any of you think that airlines will be flying in? So far nothing is canceled.

Thank you for your advice.

[cycloneye]

By my calculations, if Tomas perfectly follows in the NHC intensity forecast, in five days he should generate 12.78 units of ACE, placing us well into the hyperactive range.

The 2100z update raises the Atlantic ACE units to 147.3075.See ACE thread at Talking Tropics forum.

[wzrgirl1]

I am just mesmerized by this sytem already. The tropics are amazing....truly amazing.

[Aquawind]

Wow.. Certianly looks like Tomas will be a big hurricane. May take awhile as mentioned to get there but, it could happen sooner rather than later with a peristant burst over a stacked center. It looks like a major landfall in the Caribbean is probably going to happen at some point unfortunately.

[KWT]

I am just mesmerized by this sytem already. The tropics are amazing....truly amazing.

Yeah thats true, things are certainly pretty interesting for the Caribbean, hopefully the system will go north enough and get sheared by the zone to the north, but for now it has all the makings of an impressive hurricane frankly...

[Vortex]

18Z GFS..if tomas misses the connection late next week there is a huge high to the north waiting in the wings...

[wxman57]

Euro continues to advertise the connection may not fully get the job done next weekend and gets left behind as very strong ridging builds in to the N…..The long term is anything but set in stone…

Trouble is, the Euro doesn't see a hurricane, an a major hurricane at that. I think Tomas will most likely make a northerly turn toward the DR next Tuesday. If it does approach Jamaica, it should be making a sharp right turn around there. Strong SW winds will be entering the NW Caribbean by next Wednesday. So I think the Gulf/FL are safe. And I think it'll track right of the NHC forecast, particularly beyond day 3.

[cycloneye]

Decoded third VDM:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 22:24Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate ninth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 22:03:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 11°23'N 57°17'W (11.3833N 57.2833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 197 miles (317 km) to the SE (127°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the ESE/SE (123°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 192° at 41kts (From the SSW at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the ESE (120°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 397m (1,302ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 393m (1,289ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:07:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SOME BANDING

[KWT]

Trouble is, the Euro doesn't see a hurricane, an a major hurricane at that. I think Tomas will most likely make a northerly turn toward the DR next Tuesday. If it does approach Jamaica, it should be making a sharp right turn around there. Strong SW winds will be entering the NW Caribbean by next Wednesday. So I think the Gulf/FL are safe. And I think it'll track right of the NHC forecast, particularly beyond day 3.

To be honest that's what I've been thinking, it'd be pretty unusual for a system to miss the trough connection at his time of year, esp given this very likely will be a 4/5 by that time...IMO of course!

[bvigal]

We are scheduled to fly in to St. Lucia tomorrow afternoon (2pm).

Do any of you think that airlines will be flying in? So far nothing is canceled.

Thank you for your advice.

Below is zoom of Advisory 1 forecast track wind radii. The purple circle is 35kt winds. The magenta circle is 50kt (gale force) winds. These are sustained winds, not gusts. The forecast track is subject to some error, a small amount makes a big difference on little islands. And, intensity forecast can also change. It would not surprise me if the airport closed.

[Gustywind]

[wxman57]

We are scheduled to fly in to St. Lucia tomorrow afternoon (2pm).

Do any of you think that airlines will be flying in? So far nothing is canceled.

Thank you for your advice.

I suspect that the ceiling/visibility requirements for safe operation in St. Lucia are somewhat higher than with a major, large airfield. With numerous heavy squalls causing low ceilings/visibility, possibly centered on tomorrow afternoon, I'm sure there will be significant delays in all flights. Many may be canceled. Hard to say what the puddle-jumpers will fly in, weather-wise, down there, though.