ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Wanted to save this image.

http://img808.imageshack.us/img808/8384/ztemp.gif

So they haven't changed the cone of uncertainity, I find that interesting. Right now it would have to move almost due S in the near future to make landfall where they expect. With the weakness in the ridge to the North, what is going to keep it from moving due North????

They only change the cone when a full package is released. This was just a update not a full package so they just updated the current position.

[americanre1]

No I agree surge will likely be higher then 3-5ft, thinknig more like 6-8ft.

Looking more like WNW now on the radar, though recon suggests a NW motion is still occuring...

Radar might look WNW and recon is showing NW, but looking at water vapor it looks like due North. Looks like 24.3N and 95.4W

[wx247]

Tornado Warning SPadre Island... details found in this thread:

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=108368&p=2004363#p2004363

[txagwxman]

It has to be higher than 3-5 feet...

[Texas Snowman]

So I think there is a chance that this storm will definitely be a US landing Hurricane that is at least a Cat. 2 if not Cat. 3.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't see the eye making an official landing in the U.S. but given the NW motion recon is still finding, a landfall 30-40 miles south of Brownsville could still be possible.

As for intensity, Cat 2, yes, a possibility but Cat 3 is probably too much of a reach for this storm at this point. At least I hope so.

All in all, I think the punch from Alex is going to surprise a lot of people in the Rio Grande Valley, especially at South Padre Island. Add in the tornadoes and the rainfall and this isn't your garden variety Cat 1 storm IMO.

[americanre1]

Can any one post all the different maps of upper level steering, or at least a link.

[KWT]

Tornado Warning SPadre Island... details found in this thread:

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=108368&p=2004363#p2004363

Yeah a pretty decent Meso with that cell heading towards SPI, so wouldn't shock me to see a waterspout/tronado with this cell...

[Outlaw JW]

So I think there is a chance that this storm will definitely be a US landing Hurricane that is at least a Cat. 2 if not Cat. 3.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't see the eye making an official landing in the U.S. but given the NW motion recon is still finding, a landfall 30-40 miles south of Brownsville could still be possible.

As for intensity, Cat 2, yes, a possibility but Cat 3 is probably too much of a reach for this storm at this point. At least I hope so.

All in all, I think the punch from Alex is going to surprise a lot of people in the Rio Grande Valley, especially at South Padre Island. Add in the tornadoes and the rainfall and this isn't your garden variety Cat 1 storm IMO.

Lets split difference and say it may make LF on the Rio Grande. Just a guess.

[cycloneye]

Visibility is almost zero in South Padre.

http://www.islagrand.com/live-beach-cam/cam-viewer.htm

[KWT]

All in all, I think the punch from Alex is going to surprise a lot of people in the Rio Grande Valley, especially at South Padre Island. Add in the tornadoes and the rainfall and this isn't your garden variety Cat 1 storm IMO.

Without a doubt this is true, they are probably already getting more then they expected!

With Hurricane force winds extending out to 60 miles it doesn't need to hit the region to stil lgive hurricane winds and the gusts may reach hurricane forces at times even further out then that.

[deltadog03]

I still think this will landfall near or a tad north of 25N

[CypressMike]

My comment yesterday (not on S2K) is that it'd make landfall to the north or south of the Rio Grande - we'll see...

Hurricane season - oh boy...

Yep. I'd say you've got a 100% chance of being correct with that prediction.

[dabears]

Who knows, Alex might just decide to stall or go up the Texas coat. Definitely still a chance of that.

[thetruesms]

No I agree surge will likely be higher then 3-5ft, thinknig more like 6-8ft.

Looking more like WNW now on the radar, though recon suggests a NW motion is still occuring...

Radar might look WNW and recon is showing NW, but looking at water vapor it looks like due North. Looks like 24.3N and 95.4W

Your center fix is .6 degrees too far east. It looks like you're looking at a small pocket of drier air. The center on WV follows the motion from other observing platforms.

Besides, water vapor isn't a very good choice for a center fix, especially when you have in situ measurement and radar available to you.

[BobHarlem]

Visibility is almost zero in South Padre.

http://www.islagrand.com/live-beach-cam/cam-viewer.htm

I think that's just the camera, flhurricane has it recorded
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?77

[americanre1]

No I agree surge will likely be higher then 3-5ft, thinknig more like 6-8ft.

Looking more like WNW now on the radar, though recon suggests a NW motion is still occuring...

Radar might look WNW and recon is showing NW, but looking at water vapor it looks like due North. Looks like 24.3N and 95.4W

Your center fix is .6 degrees too far east. It looks like you're looking at a small pocket of drier air. The center on WV follows the motion from other observing platforms.

Besides, water vapor isn't a very good choice for a center fix, especially when you have in situ measurement and radar available to you.

Yeah but the problem with radar is that the waves have to go through or over the high cloud tops, so sometimes the pictures are actually a little off when you try to look at something 200 miles away from the radar site.

[ronjon]

Wow, I'm seeing a stadium effect in the eye now of Alex. Could see a period of RI over the next 6 hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GOM&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20100630&endTime=-1&duration=0

[americanre1]

On a side note, even though the center is hundreds of miles away from the deepwater horizon site it is effecting it in a large way. This article will fill you guys in. http://www.katc.com/news/cleanup-ships-idled-as-storms-rattle-gulf-region/

[Comanche]

galveston conditions-

Station GPST2
NOS
Location: 29.285N 94.788W
Conditions as of:
Wed, 30 Jun 2010 18:00:00 UTC

Winds: NE (40°) at 29.9 kt gusting to 33.0 kt
Air Temperature: 83.8 F
Water Temperature: 87.1 F

[KWT]

I still think this will landfall near or a tad north of 25N

Yeah I'd agree with you, about 25N, maybe a touch north looks likely. Does look like its bending back westwards now, probably down to about 285-290 motion, but still gaining some latitude and as I've said several times, that matters in this situation close to the border.