ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

Still only a Cat 1 based on Recon data. Maybe the NHC will jump to 85 kt just based on pressure and appearance thinking the winds are somewhere not sampled though? (I wouldn't personally)

Its a tough call, from a purist point of view then no it shouln't be upgraded...but if it has a pressure as low as about 950mbs...I'm having a hard time thinking there won't be a small pocked of 85kts winds, I'm mean even Extra-tropical winter systems sometimes have mean wind speeds over water of 80-85kts...

Still it is what it is and so I'd probably have to agree with you and keep 80kts despite the utterly whacked out pressure...and the presentation is just immense as well and supports the 950mbs...its jsut the winds that aren't responding!

[HurricaneStriker]

But Gloria ended up a Category 4.

[Sanibel]

Core structure improvement and presentation suggests category 2.

[CrazyC83]

But Gloria ended up a Category 4.

Yep barely with a 919mb pressure (which would normally be a Cat 5). It had its 946/80 after weakening.

[SunnyThoughts]

Seems to be wobbling around a bit also.

[lonelymike]

Tough little bugger...kinda reminds me of Hurricane Charley. Not as strong though.

[leanne_uk]

Ivanhater these images are sensational to look at from a weather enthusiast yet on the other hand they also show just how many people are effected by the sheer size of Alex. I hope they are all safe and dont have too much disruption to their lives because of Alex

This is a hurricane in June...this is what we can look "forward" to for this season

[HurricaneStriker]

...ALEX NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO VERY SOON... Its OFFICIAL!!

SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 97.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

[CrazyC83]

Disagree with the upgrade IMO (no Recon support), but I guess they think the pressure and Dvorak override the Recon winds.

[Sanibel]

I think at 950 the people of south Laguna Madre will attest to category 2.

[KWT]

Well there is a point where you just have to assume the system has category-2 winds and with such an extreme presentation and amazingly low pressure, you can understand why the NHC have pulled the trigger...it must have a small region of category-2 winds.

[drezee]

So they say 950, but the drop said 950 with a 14kt wind...which means 949...

[tolakram]

Pressure, Dvorak, and presentation. This thing looks to be a cat 3, so i think it's justified.

Someone here might say they did a bit of forecasting.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

[CrazyC83]

Yep, the pressure is probably 949mb.

[CrazyC83]

3 or 4 millibars away from history...I don't think we'll get another pass though.

[HurricaneStriker]

And maybe even 948....

[hurricaneCW]

Wow what a way to finish off June. Although I don't agree with the Cat 2 designation due to recons failure to find winds strong enough, it's probably not far off anyway and the pressure and presentation looks like a low end Cat 3. I'm kind of sad to watch Alex go because that means we'll probably have to wait 10-14 days for another system and I doubt it will be as strong as Alex.

[CrazyC83]

080
URNT12 KNHC 302305
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010
A. 30/22:32:50Z
B. 24 deg 20 min N
097 deg 08 min W
C. 850 mb 1005 m
D. 77 kt
E. 117 deg 9 nm
F. 216 deg 78 kt
G. 120 deg 12 nm
H. 950 mb
I. 18 C / 1530 m
J. 23 C / 1534 m
K. 21 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C12
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1201A ALEX OB 22
MAX FL WIND 98 KT NE QUAD 22:39:10Z
;

[KWT]

So they say 950, but the drop said 950 with a 14kt wind...which means 949...

Indeed which means we are within touching distance of the record, its going to be a close run thing, it may have *just* enough time to drop the last few mbs giving the speed its deepening.

Just amazing stuff!

[CrazyC83]

Come on 945!!

Fortunately that area is sparsely populated. The pressure isn't far off what Emily in 2005 was when it hit the same area (944mb).