ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[Evil Jeremy]

Weak or Strong?

UKMET is calling it "moderate" at the end of it's forecast.

[Ivanhater]

So far the trend for the 00z models has been west

UKMET

[Ivanhater]

Well..Euro swung way east...just SSW of Bermuda 120 hours

[CourierPR]

Well..Euro swung way east...just SSW of Bermuda 120 hours

Michael, do you think the other models will follow the Euro or will the Euro later trend left?

[xcool22]

Early August systems like to stay south.JMO

[TwisterFanatic]

Oh boy.... and this is just the beginning of the flip flopping.

[Ivanhater]

Well..Euro swung way east...just SSW of Bermuda 120 hours

Michael, do you think the other models will follow the Euro or will the Euro later trend left?

Euro has been horrible so far with this system swinging from the Yucatan to Bermuda. I think tomorrow night we will have a pretty good idea if this will be a fish or not. Right now though it has delayed development and seems almost due west so I think models will shift more left in the short term...

[xcool22]

Ivanhater .I agree with you & RightNow 91L move more west.

[Ivanhater]

120 hour Euro

[somethingfunny]

So we're past that whole phase where we were all entranced by the Euro's "consistency", right? Because in the past 48 hours it's taken us from Cancun to Miami to New York City to Bermuda. There's nothing wrong with a changing model solution of course, but let's stop calling it the most consistent model.

GFS and NOGAPS have remained very consistent for the most part.

[ConvergenceZone]

If it's going to follow the track of the models, it better start making a turn quickly...I just see it moving west this morning...

[KWT]

ECM barely even develops it on its 0z run which is very interesting, yet still recurves this well out of the way.

The models just keep getting stronger and stronger with that upper trough, its going to have to stay very far south not to get lifted way north...

[ConvergenceZone]

ECM barely even develops it on its 0z run which is very interesting, yet still recurves this well out of the way.

The models just keep getting stronger and stronger with that upper trough, its going to have to stay very far south not to get lifted way north...

wow, wouldn't be something KWT if this wave didn't even develop at all?...There's not much else out there..

[KWT]

I wouldn't worry about that CZ, models are pretty keen on developing another wave just behind this one...

But I'm just showing that strength of the system may not make much difference, because the ECM barely does anything on the whole journey...

06z same as the last run more or less, first trough doesn't get the job done...takes longer to get going.

[wzrgirl1]

They just showed some spaghetti plots on my local news and I noticed at the end of the run, a couple of the models had a slight bend back towards the west which I found quite interesting. Not all of them did it, but a couple of them did, but they don't say which models.

[KWT]

06z GFS at 144hrs very slow motion probably about 320, next upper trough ready to try and swing by but its nowhere near as strong as the first trough...

Probably recurve on this run but its close enough to not be too confident at the outcome...

[KWT]

Recurves at 192hrs, gets to about 72W I'd guess...its close enough that it needs to be watched closely IMO...if the first trough isn't quite as deep digging then that'd probably a outer banks hit on this run...

[KWT]

Comes close to a Newfoundland/Nova Scotia Extratropical hit but other then that it is a fish on the 06z run, but a fish that comes rather close to the east coast at one point.

[ronjon]

So far it looks like the 00Z CMC has the best handle on initialization and movement.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010080200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[KWT]

Yeah the CMC looks good on that 0z run, the low level low is looking pretty fast and something close to due west seems to be coming off quite well at the moment.

Note the CMC takes this into the Islands and only just misses Hispaniola because the upper trough digs down, if the upper features are more like the GFS, then it may end up not lifting up as quickly and that'd really bring at least the outer banks into play...