ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

[blazess556]

LOL at the 18z GFS.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

[BigA]

LOL at the 18z GFS.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

I think that's an entirely different system.

[blazess556]

LOL at the 18z GFS.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

I think that's an entirely different system.

no its not. it the reincarnation of td5

[KWT]

Its deffo TD5, you can track the Vort feature come back south about 72-96hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_072m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_096m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_120m.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

6z & 18z of GFS have been silly thus far....there can only be 1....

[NWFWatcher]

Ok I'm not understanding these models you show. Is this another system or is TD5 going to come back out and make another landfall. Could you please explain this to me. I live in Pensacola Florida and those images made me real nervous. Thank you.

[KWT]

6z & 18z of GFS have been silly thus far....there can only be 1....

ECM is real close to the 18z GFS FWIW...the only difference is the ECM is a touch too far north to get into the Gulf...had it been 50 miles further south with the vort...it'd probably develop like it does on the 18z GFS...

[caneman]

6z & 18z of GFS have been silly thus far....there can only be 1....

Here we go with the Euro again Do you have any facts to show as to how the Euro has verfied more than some of the other models on this system?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I liked how the EURO was consistant with this TD or Broad Low lol. The GFS kept bouncing back to the Upper Tx Coast then back to NOLA a few times.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

What the GFS appears to be showing is another home-brew situation, with ex-05L enhancing it.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yep, as is the EURO.

[Dean4Storms]

Things that make you hmmmmmm????

[KWT]

What the GFS appears to be showing is another home-brew situation, with ex-05L enhancing it.

I think the Vort makes it pretty clear its only Ex-05 that is developing, there isn't any other signature in the Gulf at the time that would suggest any interaction will tak place, the remains get dragged south and probably due to extra-tropical enhancement it strengthens pretty quickly.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

In regards to the models reincarnating ex-td5, what is supposed to cause it to loop back towards the gulf. Our afternoon afd talks about a front coming down north of LA and stalling out. Wouldn't the front absorb whatever is left and move it off to the east?

[MiamiHurricanes10]

What the GFS appears to be showing is another home-brew situation, with ex-05L enhancing it.

I think the Vort makes it pretty clear its only Ex-05 that is developing, there isn't any other signature in the Gulf at the time that would suggest any interaction will tak place, the remains get dragged south and probably due to extra-tropical enhancement it strengthens pretty quickly.

Yes, but even if ex-05L somehow hangs around enough time over the S.E US to help the initial disturbance (which is what I'm thinking), there would have to be a separate trough-split to allow for ex-05L to move back towards the Gulf of Mexico, think of it sorta like a weakness. This is a great example of how home-brew situations can blow up very quickly if conditions are perfect, as the GFS is showing.

[somethingfunny]

Do we have any idea what the upper level situation will look like when 05L returns for its second act?

[KWT]

Yes, but even if ex-05L somehow hangs around enough time over the S.E US to help the initial disturbance (which is what I'm thinking), there would have to be a separate trough-split to allow for ex-05L to move back towards the Gulf of Mexico, think of it sorta like a weakness. This is a great example of how home-brew situations can blow up very quickly if conditions are perfect, as the GFS is showing.

Yeah without a doubt and its helped by the remains of TD5 as you say, I stil lthink TD5 is the main feature though it blows up, I can track it pretty easily using the Vort map the whole way up and then the whole way back into the Gulf...either way as you say the GFS shows very good conditions in the Gulf, if it does get some time down there it'd have a real shot.

[lrak]

Any ideas on what latitude it would stop at before a northerly turn started again?

Ivan did the loop to loop for real if I remember right the "mini me" came ashore around Matagorda Island.

[ROCK]

Any ideas on what latitude it would stop at before a northerly turn started again?

Ivan did the loop to loop for real if I remember right the "mini me" came ashore around Matagorda Island.

it was progged for Matagorda then Galveston then Sabine then ended up in western LA.....center reformations closer to the coast is what adjusted the track...

[StormClouds63]

Any ideas on what latitude it would stop at before a northerly turn started again?

Ivan did the loop to loop for real if I remember right the "mini me" came ashore around Matagorda Island.

Ivan, as a TS, came ashore near Cameron, LA. We had some moderate showers and thundershowers, with some squalls ... nothing more than a nuisance storm on this second go-round.