ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[plasticup]

The outflow is unbelievable. This is a remarkable setup.

[wxman57]

Thank you everyone for your responses. To follow up our flight is Delta from Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson Airport to Hewanorra International Airport. It is on a 757.

It is our honeymoon so we are keeping our fingers crossed.

I guess that their airport is bigger than I'd thought. I wouldn't consider a 757 a "puddle jumper". If the airport supports 757s, then it probably can allow landings with fairly low ceilings and visibility. Question is, if they're under a hurricane warning tomorrow, will they take off from Atlanta? Your flight may be delayed, possibly until Sunday.

Congratulations on the marriage.

[Vortex]

18Z GFDL turns the system SW at the end of the run and looks more alike the ukmet/ecm....

[expat2carib]

I'M waiting here. We secured the boat as much as possible. There just came in 10's of sport fishing boats that are in a contest tomorrow. Most of them are from Puerto Rico and they are all drinking and eating and looking forward to tomorrow

[Evil Jeremy]

It's interesting to see how the NHC's cone changed (internally) throughout the day. If I am correct, this is what they were thinking at 12z (represented by OFCL):
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... _late2.png

At 18z:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png

And both of those are very different in the end from the current track forecast.

[cycloneye]

Slowing down a little bit.

LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 57.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 13KT

[brunota2003]

HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER THIS EVENING.

Be safe, guys!

[plasticup]

Slowing down a little bit.

LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 57.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 13KT

The last discussion mentioned that motion and/or center reformation were both uncertain, so I wouldn't infer much from a short-term measurement.

[abajan]

It's interesting to see how the NHC's cone changed (internally) throughout the day. If I am correct, this is what they were thinking at 12z (represented by OFCL):
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... _late2.png

At 18z:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png

And both of those are very different in the end from the current track forecast.

I'm afraid both of those links are showing the following:

[cyclonic chronic]

How come they didnt use the higher SFMR reports in the VDM?

i think its cause the flight level winds were lower than the sfmr, that tends to be becase of rainbands. there were a few uncontamited readings but some were not flagged. but the ones i saw of those reports were that the rain rate over the ocean were very high in those elevated SMFR readings that werent flagged. ive heard before that the high rain rates in tropical storms seem to over bias the SMFR readings, hence low flight level winds. dont know much about it just read it in a study a lil while ago.

another thought is the high thats supposed to fill in north of tomas in a few days. systems tend to strengthen good in those enviornment. they also tend to slow when rounding the southwestern edge of the ridge. as HNC suggest's. then a strong front digs rar south. so will tomas slow foreward speed, turn more to the n.w,. then north, then eventually n.e.? this could be bad for a lot of islands and maybe the us gulf. i realize that itll be far weaker than an intense hurricane by the gulf. im just wondering if this set up seems plausabe because of the building high and the stronger front next week.
ive been trying to study uper air charts and issue personal forecasts. just wondering if anyone has any opinion on what im thinkin. am starting classes for begining an earth sciences degree next year and would love feedback on my thoughts on this. if its off topic feel free to p.m. me. thanx all

[plasticup]

It's interesting to see how the NHC's cone changed (internally) throughout the day. If I am correct, this is what they were thinking at 12z (represented by OFCL):
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... _late2.png

At 18z:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png

And both of those are very different in the end from the current track forecast.

I'm afraid both of those links are showing the following:

http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/4061/noaccess.png

They do that to prevent "hot-linking" but you can trick it. Simply open it, select the URL at the top of the browser, and hit enter.

[cyclonic chronic]

anyone know when the next recon reaches tomas?

[Ivanhater]

[HURAKAN]

latest wv

[cycloneye]

anyone know when the next recon reaches tomas?

Plane departs from ST Croix at 12:30 AM EDT.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 31/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0321A CYCLONE
C. 31/0430Z
D. 13.2N 64.0W
E. 31/0530Z TO 31/0930Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[plasticup]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg

And they say this is only a tropical storm?

[blp]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 300003
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF TOMAS...THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61
KT AND SFMR MEASUREMENTS AROUND 50 KT. THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED
FASTER THAN WAS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND A SPECIAL
ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH
THE FIRST 48 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA.

BUOY 41101 IS ALREADY REPORTING SEAS OF 13 FT WELL NORTH OF THE
CENTER...REQUIRING AN EXPANSION OF THE 12-FT SEAS RADII.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0000Z 11.6N 57.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 12.0N 59.5W 55 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 12.9N 61.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 13.5N 64.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 14.1N 66.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 14.8N 70.4W 90 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 15.2N 74.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 03/1800Z 16.0N 76.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN

[abajan]

It's interesting to see how the NHC's cone changed (internally) throughout the day. If I am correct, this is what they were thinking at 12z (represented by OFCL):
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... _late2.png

At 18z:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png

And both of those are very different in the end from the current track forecast.

I'm afraid both of those links are showing the following:

http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/4061/noaccess.png

They do that to prevent "hot-linking" but you can trick it. Simply open it, select the URL at the top of the browser, and hit enter.

Ah yes. Thanks.

[HURAKAN]

Barbados will be the first to feel Tomás wrath, I hope everyone gets out well

[JtSmarts]

Looks like it might be developing the much talked about "fist" that occurs whenever a storm is getting ready for some major intensification.