ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[cyclonic chronic]

see the green in the eye on radar? u can also see it in the vis sat loop above wrap into the eye. maybe the beginings of an eyewall replacement cycle? tho they usually go on with hurricanes of major intensity but the pressure is of a major. who knows. would be cool if we saw the start of an E.R.C on radar.!
ive no doubt that this wouldve been a monster bombing out if he'd had another 12-18 hrs over water.


p.s. plus what would the inner structure of the wall look like if it was 100 miles closer to the radar beam?

[KWT]

Yep one more pass from recon with it probably emerging from the NE quadrant and I'd guess homeward bound probably?

Cyclenall, its just an unreal hurricane, as I said if this was part of the 2008 season, Alex would currently be ranked the 4th strongest of the season...so the fact the 1st storm has been so strong and is hitting quite deep in the tropics is worrying, esp with the upper high over the SE Atlantic being present and forecasted to stay that way for a decent part of the season, it certainly is a warning shot!

[jlauderdal]

Wow what a way to finish off June. Although I don't agree with the Cat 2 designation due to recons failure to find winds strong enough, it's probably not far off anyway and the pressure and presentation looks like a low end Cat 3. I'm kind of sad to watch Alex go because that means we'll probably have to wait 10-14 days for another system and I doubt it will be as strong as Alex.

we will be sure to send a major your way so you have something to get excited about,

If you can ever send a major to NJ, than I'll be impressed

The NYC hurricane, once every 500 years, get ready

[Ivanhater]

Just wow

[SunnyThoughts]

Date : 30 JUN 2010 Time : 234500 UTC
Lat : 24:23:10 N Lon : 97:23:51 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 948.0mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.0 6.1



Just incredible

[lonelymike]

It'll be interesting to read the NHC wrapup report on Alex.

[KWT]

Whats interesting to me is seeing just how much the internal structure has improvd in the last 12hrs, it went from having a double wind Maxima, even triple briefly, then the inner eyewall collapsed rapidly and the pressure shot up, then the outer eyewall very rapidly contracted and its been strengthening ever since then...

Lets see whether recon can go sub 946mbs on this pass...going to be tight, may just miss out...

[brunota2003]

Did someone order a 3D close up of Alex from radar?*



*Note: Due to the distance, you are not seeing all of the precip echoes in 3D...only the echoes the radar picked up.

[TheBurn]

[jlauderdal]

looks a little south of west now, incredible how that ridge put the abrupt halt to the northerly movement earlier and it went 280, i saw some Brownsville and points north discussion earlier but that ridge had a very different idea, good for Brownsville, last place you want to be is at landfall with an intensifying system which is exactly what alex did, who would have a thought a T of 6.0 at landfall...they better get that rig patched up ASAP

[TexasF6]

115knots? is that surface or flight level???? Do we have a record????? quik math: 115 x 1.15 = 132.25mph!!!!! WOW

[KWT]

brunota2003, thats an amazing image!

As you say jlauderdal you'd never have thought the presentation would suggest Dvorak ratings of 6.0 36-48hrs ago when the system was getting hit by some moderate shear and lots of dry air.

[neospaceblue]

115knots? is that surface or flight level???? Do we have a record????? quik math: 115 x 1.15 = 132.25mph!!!!! WOW

It's an estimate from satellite. Still a Cat2.

[johngaltfla]

H. 948 mb

That is QUITE impressive. Is this the all time low for a June hurricane???

[brunota2003]

115knots? is that surface or flight level???? Do we have a record????? quik math: 115 x 1.15 = 132.25mph!!!!! WOW

That's neither...the T Numbers are satellite based, and that is what the satellites *think* is Alex's strength right now. Recon is proving otherwise.

[KWT]

Not quite johngaltfla, the record is with Audrey at 946mbs, so is close but not quite.

Worth watching the recon thread over the next 15 mins because we will probably have the final answers with this storm before it makes landfall within the next hour...

[TheBurn]

[jlauderdal]

brunota2003, thats an amazing image!

As you say jlauderdal you'd never have thought the presentation would suggest Dvorak ratings of 6.0 36-48hrs ago when the system was getting hit by some moderate shear and lots of dry air.

we could have run a forecast contest and I highly doubt anyone would have predicted a 6

[KWT]

Pressure stayed at 948mbs this run though the surface wind estimated did suggest there was a bit of wind. The dropsonde will be interesting to see, I'd imagine if the surface wind is a decent estimate then we'll get a pressure of about 947mbs, maybe 946mbs...

So probably just shy of Audrey's record...recon heading out to the NE quadrant it seems after an epic flight.

[jaxfladude]

Prayers for the Mex-Tex area.

Stay safe y'all!