ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[cycloneye]

The big question is if this system will organize again or remain as a remnant system.

[Vortex]

Once the ridge builds in and the trough moves out gaston will get moving and the instability will increase substantially once reaching 50w....There's clearly several vorticities along with a fairly well defined circulation....Shear should remain minimal the next few days so once he can begin to fire convection Gaston will be back in business...

[cycloneye]

Wow to go from a "potential" 85 knot hurricane (this morning's advisory) to
a remnant low in less then 12 hours is pretty darn amazing. May I ask how the
NHC didn't see this coming?

If you want an answer from them, you can ask directly by email.

nhc.public.affairs@noaa.gov

[Migle]

I definitely think there's a chance that this one could make a comeback, but there's just nothing there right now.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, that's nuts! This morning this was forecasted to be a Cat2 or higher heading for the islands
now it's only a wave with only a possible regeneration into a depression over the next several days...
Looks like the islands may have just dodged a bullet....

[x-y-no]

Wow to go from a "potential" 85 knot hurricane (this morning's advisory) to
a remnant low in less then 12 hours is pretty darn amazing. May I ask how the
NHC didn't see this coming?

Well, the fact is that intensity forecasting, particularly with weak systems, is an extraordinarily difficult problem. There are positive feedbacks in both the organization process and the dissipation process, and the difference between the conditions for the former and the latter can be very small.

[Blown Away]

Wow to go from a "potential" 85 knot hurricane (this morning's advisory) to
a remnant low in less then 12 hours is pretty darn amazing. May I ask how the
NHC didn't see this coming?

Maybe you shouldn't be so disappointed, the Caribbean doesn't need a Cat 2 Hurricane! Great news!!

[blazess556]

id have to give this a 70-80% chance of regeneration. it still decent vorticity and a low level circulation.

[fasterdisaster]

I don't think we've seen the last of Gaston.

[alienstorm]

Somehow I don't think we are done dealing with Gaston. Look for regeneration in 48 hours or by the end of the weekend......

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow to go from a "potential" 85 knot hurricane (this morning's advisory) to
a remnant low in less then 12 hours is pretty darn amazing. May I ask how the
NHC didn't see this coming?

My thoughts exactly. I'm amazed at how fast it dissolved.
With the shear and fronts coming down etc,
I'm thinking that the CV season might be slowly coming to a close. We
might be getting a break for awhile...Although come late september we
might start seeing some development in the carib and gulf.

I think the fact that Gaston dissolved into nothing so quickly tells us
all we need to know about the conditions out there right now in the Eastern
Atlantic.

[ColinDelia]

A different question is how did this ever become a TS in the first place? I, for one, was surprised when it did became one so fast. A broad low with poor vorticity connected to the ITCZ with very dry air and poor convective potential overcame 10-1 odds and became a tropical cyclone in 48 hours.

I don't think SHIPS handles SAL in any way. How would it? Sometimes systems develop when surrounded by SAL and sometimes not. It's some kind of inhibiting factor but there are many times when that is completely defied. Maybe someday someone will figure out a way to correlate that with intensity in some way and add to SHIPS.

The models that kept this weak, dissipated, or even from forming had the overall idea right but missed the brief period of intensification - which maybe was luck - for lack of a better word.

All easier said after the fact, of course.

[Blown Away]

A different question is how did this ever become a TS in the first place? I, for one, was surprised when it did became one so fast. A broad low with poor vorticity connected to the ITCZ with very dry air and poor convective potential overcame 10-1 odds and became a tropical cyclone in 48 hours.

I don't think SHIPS handles SAL in any way. How would it? Sometimes systems develop when surrounded by SAL and sometimes not. It's some kind of inhibiting factor but there are many times when that is completely defied. Maybe someday someone will figure out a way to correlate that with intensity in some way and add to SHIPS.

The models that kept this weak, dissipated, or even from forming had the overall idea right but missed the brief period of intensification - which maybe was luck - for lack of a better word.

All easier said after the fact, of course.

Easy, they needed to check another name off the list to get the prediction numbers!

[Stormcenter]

I actually did but I'm not holding my breath waiting for a response.

Wow to go from a "potential" 85 knot hurricane (this morning's advisory) to
a remnant low in less then 12 hours is pretty darn amazing. May I ask how the
NHC didn't see this coming?

If you want an answer from them, you can ask directly by email.

nhc.public.affairs@noaa.gov

[Duke95]

I think in another week or so there will still be some around here claiming Gaston has impressive structure.

[LowndesCoFire]

Why does the 5 day track show depression when percentages on the forecast table show a greater chance of a TS 72+ hrs out??

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Wow to go from a "potential" 85 knot hurricane (this morning's advisory) to
a remnant low in less then 12 hours is pretty darn amazing. May I ask how the
NHC didn't see this coming?

My thoughts exactly. I'm amazed at how fast it dissolved.
With the shear and fronts coming down etc,
I'm thinking that the CV season might be slowly coming to a close. We
might be getting a break for awhile...Although come late september we
might start seeing some development in the carib and gulf.

I think the fact that Gaston dissolved into nothing so quickly tells us
all we need to know about the conditions out there right now in the Eastern
Atlantic.

So the CV season is coming to a close on September 2nd? I really don't think so.

[cycloneye]

[LowndesCoFire]

FROM THIS...



TO THIS...

[wxman57]

I think there's a very good chance of regeneration in 3-4 days. Same as with any strong tropical disturbance with a weak circulation.