ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[RainWind]

Can Alex make it intact to the Eastern Pacific?

Wow, I was just going to ask that myself? Seems like he is heading southwest this morning, so I thought he is heading for the Pacific! Wonder if he will make it?

May thanks to all of you for your timely discussions while we watched Alex confound and amaze us over the last week! Until next storm...........

[dixiebreeze]

I think so, as I just posted in the thread about folks in the path of Alex.

[Sanibel]

Clouds warming/thinning fast for a trip across the thick of Mexico.

[RachelAnna]

I know someone (sorry, can't remember who!) mentioned along the way that the Euro had another Brownsville/S Texas/N Mexico storm in the next ten days. I heard it said on the weather channel a couple hours ago that there are absolutely no areas of interest in the Atlantic or Gulf right now that Alex is over land. So, did what the Euro was picking up on fizzle out, or is it just not formed yet?

[Evil Jeremy]

Alex's circulation is holding up well as it travels through Mexico. Should be ripped up by the mountains before the day is over though.

[CrazyC83]

Even if it somehow survives, conditions aren't that great for Alex to revitalize in the EPAC.

[USTropics]

I know someone (sorry, can't remember who!) mentioned along the way that the Euro had another Brownsville/S Texas/N Mexico storm in the next ten days. I heard it said on the weather channel a couple hours ago that there are absolutely no areas of interest in the Atlantic or Gulf right now that Alex is over land. So, did what the Euro was picking up on fizzle out, or is it just not formed yet?

It appears the ECMWF has some energy moving from the Pacific across Central America and into the BOC. The earliest you would see some type of development (if at all) would be 6 days from now. Currently only the ECMWF is showing development in this area, and we'll see if the ECMWF continues to show model consistency with a system in the BOC (on a side note, the ECMWF did very well with Alex from long range, it was consistent with a western GOM threat well before any of the other models picked up on it).

[HurricaneRobert]

Even if it somehow survives, conditions aren't that great for Alex to revitalize in the EPAC.

It's trek across Mexico is pretty similar to this.

[Wren]

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 01 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

HURRICANE ALEX WAS THE ONLY TROPICAL CYCLONE OBSERVED DURING THE
MONTH OF JUNE AND THE FIRST JUNE ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SINCE
1995. IT WAS ALSO THE FIRST CATEGORY TWO JUNE HURRICANE SINCE 1966.
ON AVERAGE...A TROPICAL STORM OCCURS IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IN JUNE
EVERY OTHER YEAR...AND A HURRICANE ABOUT ONCE EVERY FIVE YEARS. ALEX
MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST IN THE MUNICIPALITY
OF SOTO LA MARINA LATE ON 30 JUNE AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE
LETTERS...HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/2010ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH)
----------------------------------------------------
H ALEX 25 JUN- 105

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Thanks for that report HURAKAN. I don't post often at all, usually am just one of many loyal lurkers. I know specifics about Soto La Marina on the Rio Tigre as I flew down there years ago for a fishing trip with my husband and family members. We landed right on the beach. This was back in the 70s. We stayed in a grass hut on the opposite side of the river from Soto La Marina. Soto was just a small fishing village, and we had to go there by boat when we left because the plane didn't have enough beach for a runway with the extra weight of the fish we'd caught, and there was a private ranch airfield we needed to take off from.

Back then, the houses in Soto were small wooden shacks with dirt floor interiors. In the mornings we would see the men of Soto go out to fish a reef, just about a mile offshore. Some of the men had small boats 14-16 ft. they leased or bought from sales of the fish they caught,and others actually went out in dugouts, homemade canoes carved from a single log. This was poverty like I'd never seen before. Last night as I watched Alex go in, I worried about the people of Soto because I knew the eye went in close to that location. I remember being told all those years ago there was one road in and out of Soto La Marina, and it had great ruts, and only the fish trucks could traverse it. I hope things have improved down there, and the residents were able to get out.

My kudos to our pro mets and excellent amateurs. I've learned much from reading at S2K.

[fogbreath]

Even if it somehow survives, conditions aren't that great for Alex to revitalize in the EPAC.

Does anyone know if a storm (or remnants thereof) entering Mexico that far north has done such a thing?

[HouTXmetro]

Heavy training rain bands occuring in the Houston Metro area...starting to get concerned about flooding.

[Tireman4]

Heavy training rain bands occuring in the Houston Metro area...starting to get concerned about flooding.

Agreed, really coming down in the Gulgate area....

[hurricaneCW]

I'm sad that Alex is gone, well its not completely gone, in fact it still has a nice circulation in central Mexico but should dissipate before crossing over into the Pacific. We may have to wait weeks for Bonnie.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HouTXmetro]

Mid to upper TX Gulf Coast is getting walloped with Heavy Triopical Down pours associated with Alex and a stalled frontal boundary.

[RachelAnna]

Heavy training rain bands occuring in the Houston Metro area...starting to get concerned about flooding.

Still very little rain in the Cypress area.... Hopefully more this afternoon as we're so dry!

[RachelAnna]

I know someone (sorry, can't remember who!) mentioned along the way that the Euro had another Brownsville/S Texas/N Mexico storm in the next ten days. I heard it said on the weather channel a couple hours ago that there are absolutely no areas of interest in the Atlantic or Gulf right now that Alex is over land. So, did what the Euro was picking up on fizzle out, or is it just not formed yet?

It appears the ECMWF has some energy moving from the Pacific across Central America and into the BOC. The earliest you would see some type of development (if at all) would be 6 days from now. Currently only the ECMWF is showing development in this area, and we'll see if the ECMWF continues to show model consistency with a system in the BOC (on a side note, the ECMWF did very well with Alex from long range, it was consistent with a western GOM threat well before any of the other models picked up on it).

Great, thanks! It'll be interesting to watch! Anyone have any guesses as to when we'll see another system in the Atlantic? Would be a total guess of course, but just curious as to what ya'll are thinking!

[canes101]

anyone have the new IR image of it now?

[HURAKAN]

anyone have the new IR image of it now?

Latest

[CrazyC83]

Still looks to have a solid circulation halfway across.