ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking at satellite I think the center is down around 19N and 84W...either way though it is very broad...

SFT

[Bocadude85]

I guess you could argue that its the center of a broad LLC with multiple vorts but i dont really see multiple vorts anymore.

Very broad for sure. It will be interesting to see what RECON discovers. There is possibly another vort or LLC under the heavier convection to the East also.
We'll be finding out.

Actually now I see what Aric is talking about.. looks like maybe the eastern convection is starting to wrap around the LLC

[artist]

since recon is on the way, hopefully we will know soon.

yeah that will help... I cant post the satellite overlay right now.. but if you go to the SSD visible floater and put the forecast points on there you can see a curved band going right through the "L". I guess you could argue that its the center of a broad LLC with multiple vorts but i dont really see multiple vorts anymore.. I looks like its west of that position by about 30 miles or so. not a huge deal though.

as for its motion I see no real direction to the cloud mass or the "center" its till basically stationary..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

yeah, I will post the images as soon as they get to the storm. I think it should be in about 20 minutes or so. Trying to finish a few things here then will begin them.
Here is an image right now-

[FLpanhandle91]

Seems like banding is starting to occur South and East of the LLC. Getting better organized by the frame on visible.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[floridasun78]

since recon is on the way, hopefully we will know soon.

yeah that will help... I cant post the satellite overlay right now.. but if you go to the SSD visible floater and put the forecast points on there you can see a curved band going right through the "L". I guess you could argue that its the center of a broad LLC with multiple vorts but i dont really see multiple vorts anymore.. I looks like its west of that position by about 30 miles or so. not a huge deal though.

as for its motion I see no real direction to the cloud mass or the "center" its till basically stationary..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

yeah, I will post the images as soon as they get to the storm. I think it should be in about 20 minutes or so. Trying to finish a few things here then will begin them.
Here is an image right now-
http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/6097/33660617.jpg

i have question for artist do you use plugin to track hurr with google earth?

[floridasun78]

could this become hurr or unlikely before getting to south fl ?? i seen some models want to do it

[artist]

i have question for artist do you use plugin to track hurr with google earth?

yes, I got the kmz file from tropicalatlantic.com as well as the predict kmz file as well as the one Henkl had for us. They work great!

[Bocadude85]

could this become hurr or unlikely before getting to south fl ?? i seen some models want to do it

I would think the chances of this becoming a hurricane are slim.... just my opinion though

[AdamFirst]

could this become hurr or unlikely before getting to south fl ?? i seen some models want to do it

Anything's possible, but I think chances for a hurricane are less than a half of a percent at this point.

[Weatherboy1]

Seems like banding is starting to occur South and East of the LLC. Getting better organized by the frame on visible.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

Agreed. Looks like very last frame or two suggests we may finally be seeing a more organized LLC coming together. Also appears to be some convection firing around the Isle of Youth that's trying to wrap more toward the center. The only way this thing gets to be a high-end TS or low-end cane, in my opinion, is if we can wrap more convection over the LLC ... and so far that hasn't happened. If the trend of the last hour or two continues, though, it just might.

[floridasun78]

i have question for artist do you use plugin to track hurr with google earth?

yes, I got the kmz file from tropicalatlantic.com as well as the predict kmz file as well as the one Henkl had for us. They work great!

what link to it i would like one better one i have now i one i use it show box with sat pic of area that been track when you click it old plugin ty

[Evil Jeremy]

For reference, the NHC is giving this a 4% chance of being a hurricane in 24 hours, and a 6% chance of being one in 36 hours.

[petit_bois]

Lest we not forget Cuba will have an effect on development.

[Sanibel]

A secondary wave should shove the front a little.


Spiral starting to tighten.

[wxman57]

The "center" is a very broad low pressure area between the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. It's not over by Belize, as some have suggested. Surface obs are your friend here. This won't be your typical tropical cyclone, by any means. It may not ever have a well-defined core of squalls. And it will likely have all heavy squalls east of the center as it passes south Florida. So don't focus on the center or the track as indicating where the heaviest squalls and strongest wind will impact.

The center could track into the SW FL peninsula, but that would still keep the heaviest rain east of Miami. That's not to say that Miami couldn't still get 3-6 inches of rain over the next day or so, some of it from the cold front moving through. But TS conditions may be confined to the beach areas.

Farther north, the big question is whether it tracks east of Hatteras or inland into NC. I don't see it moving into Charleston as the 12Z GFS forecasts. Maybe NC, though. But by then, there may not be much "tropical" about it. And I certainly don't buy the HWRF/GFDL forecasts of hurricane intensity. It won't be tropical then.

[CrazyC83]

This is more of a subtropical cyclone IMO.

[ronjon]

COC just south of the Isle of Youth moving slowly north. Looks to be tracking closer to the 12Z GFS now. Interesting to see what the HWRF and GFDL do in their 12z runs. NHC track now near TCVN where as at 11 am they were on the western side of guidance. I wouldn't rule a low end Hurricane based on the dynamical models and very high TCHP.

[tolakram]

Convection building to the north of the broad center. Might be a result of interaction with Isle of Youth.

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

[psyclone]

it will be interesting to see if tropical storm conditions are observed anywhere in Florida. at this point i would bet no.


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[otowntiger]

The "center" is a very broad low pressure area between the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. It's not over by Belize, as some have suggested. Surface obs are your friend here. This won't be your typical tropical cyclone, by any means. It may not ever have a well-defined core of squalls. And it will likely have all heavy squalls east of the center as it passes south Florida. So don't focus on the center or the track as indicating where the heaviest squalls and strongest wind will impact.

The center could track into the SW FL peninsula, but that would still keep the heaviest rain east of Miami. That's not to say that Miami couldn't still get 3-6 inches of rain over the next day or so, some of it from the cold front moving through. But TS conditions may be confined to the beach areas.

Farther north, the big question is whether it tracks east of Hatteras or inland into NC. I don't see it moving into Charleston as the 12Z GFS forecasts. Maybe NC, though. But by then, there may not be much "tropical" about it. And I certainly don't buy the HWRF/GFDL forecasts of hurricane intensity. It won't be tropical then.

wxman57: Are there any reliable models still suggesting more storms to come out of this area next week? It seems no one is talking about that anymore.