ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[fci]

I'm not impressed with what appears to be a very elongated surface circulation.

Going by your posts, you are reacting as if this is a system that has already been established and can do better. Earlier you said that you believe the storm will follow the "stay weak" forecast because it is weak now. Don't judge the system based off what it is now. Judge it based off what it is now compared to what it was before. It is a storm that is continuously strengthening and organizing.

And I believe that you should pay close attention to what the Pro Mets and informed others; are saying.
Originally, the thought was that this would go into CA and maybe even the EPAC with little chance of getting further North and a threat the to CONUS.
Now, things have evolved a bit, and continue to; and the Pros are a little less comfortable with ruling out a system affecting the CONUS and they talk of some pretty hefty stregthening.
So, I agree that you can't judge based on right now, or jump to conclusions based on what might happen very short term. Look at the models, listen to, and read what; the Pros say and sit back and see what happens.
This is not a race to say "I told you so" that many are apt to want to be able to do.
It is a curious science that, at times; can have devastating circumstances/consequences involved with it.

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm not impressed with what appears to be a very elongated surface circulation.

Going by your posts, you are reacting as if this is a system that has already been established and can do better. Earlier you said that you believe the storm will follow the "stay weak" forecast because it is weak now. Don't judge the system based off what it is now. Judge it based off what it is now compared to what it was before. It is a storm that is continuously strengthening and organizing.

And I believe that you should pay close attention to what the Pro Mets and informed others; are saying.
Originally, the thought was that this would go into CA and maybe even the EPAC with little chance of getting further North and a threat the to CONUS.
Now, things have evolved a bit, and continue to; and the Pros are a little less comfortable with ruling out a system affecting the CONUS and they talk of some pretty hefty stregthening.
So, I agree that you can't judge based on right now, or jump to conclusions based on what might happen very short term. Look at the models, listen to, and read what; the Pros say and sit back and see what happens.
This is not a race to say "I told you so" that many are apt to want to be able to do.
It is a curious science that, at times; can have devastating circumstances involved with it.

Is that to me or the member I quoted?

[Typhoon_Willie]

Well just like the 5 day cone I am sure that they will improve the 7 day cone accuracy. I am sure that with better designed computer programs and excellent data collection that will be done.

[Ivanhater]

Just a friendly reminder. Anyone is welcome to start a thread in Talking tropics about the extension of the NHC cone. It is starting to get off topic here.

[Sanibel]

You're probably seeing a little 'burp' as Richard shifts between guiding synoptics.

Although Richard is still entrained in the trough and elongated, a sharp eye will see slight Dvorak improvements and a hazing outflow starting to appear. All signs of improving development. I think we will see continued improvement from here on.

[cycloneye]

Long discussion just out by Dr Jeff Masters of Weatherunderground about TS Richard.

Posted by: JeffMasters, 7:31 PM GMT on October 21, 2010

Tropical Storm Richard is here, the seventeenth named storm of this very busy 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Richard's formation puts 2010 in 6th place for the greatest number of named storms in the Atlantic since record keeping began in 1851. Only 2005 (28 named storms), 1933 (21 named storms), 1995 (19 named storms), 1887 (19 named storms), and 1969 (18 named storms) had more.

We won't have another hurricane hunter aircraft in Richard until 8pm tonight, so we will have to rely on satellite intensity estimates until then. The closest buoy to Richard is NOAA buoy 42057, which is on Richard's weak side about 100 miles from the heaviest thunderstorms. Winds at the buoy were just 18 mph, gusting to 22 mph, at 2:43pm EDT this afternoon. Recent satellite imagery shows that Richard is steadily organizing, with several curved spiral bands forming on the storm's south and east sides. The storm is bringing very heavy rain to Jamaica. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west and north of Richard, and the southwesterly upper-level winds over the storm are bringing some of this dry into the core of the storm, keeping all the heavy thunderstorm development confined to the east side of the center. The waters beneath Richard are very warm, 29°C, and Richard will begin taking advantage of these warm waters now that the shear is falling.

Intensity forecast for Richard

The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Monday morning. As the storm moves westwards on Friday, it will position itself beneath an upper-level high pressure system, which will aid the storm's upper-level outflow. With water temperatures a very warm 29°C and warm waters extending to great depth, Richard should be able to attain at least Category 1 hurricane strength by Saturday. NHC is currently giving Richard a 11% chance of becoming a major Category 3+ hurricane. I believe the odds are higher, near 40%. The main inhibiting factor for intensification will be interaction with the north coast of Honduras, and the possibility of the dry air to the west of Richard getting wrapped into the core of the storm while it is trying to organize. A band of very strong upper-level winds associated with the jet stream will be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, so it is likely that if Richard crosses into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will steadily weaken.

Track forecast for Richard

The latest set of 8am EDT (12Z) model runs are similar to the previous set of runs, and don't help illuminate what the long-range fate of Richard might be. Steering currents are weak in the Western Caribbean, and will remain weak through Friday morning, resulting in a slow, erratic movement for Richard. Most of the models favor a southerly, then southwesterly path at 5mph or less over the next two days. This may bring the center of Richard very close to or over the northern coast of Honduras on Saturday or Sunday, as predicted by the GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS models. These models then show Richard dissipating over Central America. A much different solution is offered by the ECMWF, HWRF and GFDL models, which foresee less of a southerly motion for Richard over the next two days, resulting in the storm missing the north coast of Honduras by one hundred miles or more. These models take Richard to the northwest across the tip of the Yucatan (GFDL and ECMWF models) or western tip of Cuba (HWRF model) on Sunday or Monday. The HWRF and GFDL models predict Richard will be a threat to the west coast of Florida on Tuesday. NHC takes the reasonable approach of predicting a path somewhere between these two extremes, with Richard crossing the Yucatan between Cozumel and the Belize/Mexico border. Residents of northern Honduras should anticipate the possibility that Richard will pass very close or strike Honduras on Saturday or Sunday. Very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches are possible over the the weekend in coastal Honduras beginning Friday night or Saturday morning. The 11am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras, at 46%. Cozumel, Mexico is given a 42% chance, Key West a 6% chance, and Ft. Myers a 3% chance.

[Typhoon_Willie]

No problem Ivanhater. I was just reacting to an aside by wxman57 about the 7 day cone. It will not be mentioned again.

[Ivanhater]

No problem Ivanhater. I was just reacting to an aside by wxman57 about the 7 day cone. It will not be mentioned again.

Not a problem at all. Truthfully, that topic deserves its own thread as it has a lot of thoughts on both sides.

[fci]

Oh, and as for the 5-day track, the NHC is now producing a 7-day in-house track in a "testing phase" before going public with the 7-day track in 2-3 years. That'll be interesting to see a cone about 1000 miles across at day 7.

I think the implementation of this would be a very bad idea.

A 7 day 1000 miles across cone would insure a lot of "the sky is falling" posts here.

[fci]

Going by your posts, you are reacting as if this is a system that has already been established and can do better. Earlier you said that you believe the storm will follow the "stay weak" forecast because it is weak now. Don't judge the system based off what it is now. Judge it based off what it is now compared to what it was before. It is a storm that is continuously strengthening and organizing.

And I believe that you should pay close attention to what the Pro Mets and informed others; are saying.
Originally, the thought was that this would go into CA and maybe even the EPAC with little chance of getting further North and a threat the to CONUS.
Now, things have evolved a bit, and continue to; and the Pros are a little less comfortable with ruling out a system affecting the CONUS and they talk of some pretty hefty stregthening.
So, I agree that you can't judge based on right now, or jump to conclusions based on what might happen very short term. Look at the models, listen to, and read what; the Pros say and sit back and see what happens.
This is not a race to say "I told you so" that many are apt to want to be able to do.
It is a curious science that, at times; can have devastating circumstances involved with it.

Is that to me or the member I quoted?

Oh, I am wholeheartedly agreeing with YOU.
I have been pretty rough on you in the past and you are completely correct, in my opinion; in your post.

[HURAKAN]

The R-experiment has been catastrophic. Lets hope Richard doesn't follow its R predecessors.

[cycloneye]

Off Topic=Ok peeps,there is a thread at Talking Tropics forum where all can discuss about this theme of a 7 day cone.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109774&p=2088507#p2088507

[Vortex]

Interesting and possibly very important snipet from NWS discussion this afternoon.

NWS Miami:


ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A WEAK LOW LEVEL LEFTOVER
BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE NE-E FLOW AND COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOSTLY ACROSS ERN AREAS. GFS MOS JUMPS TO
LOW SCT POPS...HOWEVER WL KEEP IT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR THE TIME BEING AS THE FUTURE TRACK AND/OR INTENSITY OF RICHARD
COULD INFLUENCE THE FINAL WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. A VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
AND COULD FURTHER DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM RICHARD OR COULD
CUT IT ALTOGETHER SHOULD IT MOVE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
UNCERTAINTY STILL TOO HIGH FOR THIS PERIOD.

[Ivanhater]

[GCANE]

Outflow channels look better and better every time I check it.

[Vortex]

getting there...tonight should be the night where more steady intensification takes place and builds on the western semi-circle.

[SouthDadeFish]

Notice on the last few frames the convection builds westward over the center. Also cirrus clouds are building westward. The start of intensification in my opinion.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1

[Vortex]

looking at the latest vis..Richard is increasing in overall organization...convection contiues to increase and shear is beginng to relax. Steady strengthening appears a good bet this evening into overnight...

[Battlebrick]

Recon on their way..

[cycloneye]

The most important paragrafh of the 5 PM discussion.

.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF CURRENT MOTION IS ABOUT 155/3. A TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN STEERING
THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER... THIS TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE STORM
EVENTUALLY TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST IN A DAY OR SO...THEY ARE
IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO VARYING RIDGE
STRENGTHS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALL OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED WELL TOWARD THE LEFT...AFTER MOVING TOWARD THE RIGHT
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...A
LUXURY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE...THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY NOW IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...AND LITTLE CHANGE WILL
BE MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST. THE NEW 48-HOUR FORECAST POINT IS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO HONDURAS TO WARRANT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.