ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Dean4Storms]

The high pressure is right over the vorticity

Things should really pick up then, right?

Going to take a couple days, need some sustained convection so that a surface low can close off and deepen.

[Stratosphere747]

I know there is probably some interest in regards to the continuing operations at the Horizon site and how 93l could potentially effect them. This is from the daily briefing earlier today.

Q: Hi. Thank you. There’s been some reports that the first major storm of the hurricane season might enter the Gulf as soon as next week. Could you walk us through what will happen with the collection operation if that happened next week?

ADMIRAL ALLEN: Sure. First of all, we’re watching the hurricane season very, very closely. I’m in constant contact with Jane Lubchenco, administrator of NOAA, and in fact, this week I talked to Craig Fugate, the FEMA administrator. We are informing each other of our respective operations. Of course you know they were involved with hurricane prep, so they would be anyway this time of year. And we do have that low depression that’s been informed in the Southeast Caribbean, and we’re watching that as well.

How we respond to a hurricane will be dictated by which production capacity we have on scene, and as you know this is evolving and will continue to evolve over the next two to three weeks. By the end of next week, let’s say, we would anticipate having three production vessels out there over the well site; the Discovery Enterprise, the Q4000 and the Helix Producer. Of those production capabilities, one of them is fixed hard to do the platform itself, and that’s the Discovery Enterprise down to the wellbore. The other two are on flexible couplings for vertical riser packages.

We would need in total to disconnect, recover to a safe harbor and return probably around 10 days to accomplish that, and we would probably have to start doing that anywhere between three to seven days in advance of the hurricane. Those procedures are being finalized right now. We’re discussing that with BP and the folks that are down at the area unified command in New Orleans. But if it happens—if we got notice that a hurricane was coming, we would need anywhere from three to seven days in advance of that to demobilize and redeploy the equipment.

Is that responsive?

Q: What kind of storm would have to be coming your way for you to do that? How—what kind of wind speed, or could you give anymore specifics on that?

ADMIRAL ALLEN: Well, what we’re going to do is—I was asked the question yesterday. I asked some folks working on how are mooring systems related to Saffir-Simpson Scales, because I think that’s the easiest way for people to understand that. And we will get that out to you in the next 24 hours. But basically, the least capable platform that’s in production to ride out heavy weather would be the Discovery Enterprise because it’s physically hooked to the well itself.

Anything that’s working through our vertical riser that’s floating with a flexible hose coupling will have a little bit more flexibility as far as the sea state, and the large vessels that will be coming on later in July, the shuttle tankers, have much more sea keeping capability, although none of them are designed or created, nor are the production mooring facilities and everything else, created to withstand a major hurricane. Exactly when the cutoff is as far as the sea state goes, we will put that together, and we’ll give you a brief in 24 hours.

[Dean4Storms]

Just noticed where SAB's scientific dart toss landed at:

22/2345 UTC 17.4N 71.8W TOO WEAK 93L

That's 200+ miles away from the point TPC decided upon for the 00Z position. Massive uncertainty this evening.

I would have to agree with that position right now, it is showing the most convection and rotation. If a surface low forms here you can throw out all the model runs.

[Florida1118]

Just noticed where SAB's scientific dart toss landed at:

22/2345 UTC 17.4N 71.8W TOO WEAK 93L

That's 200+ miles away from the point TPC decided upon for the 00Z position. Massive uncertainty this evening.

I would have to agree with that position right now, it is showing the most convection and rotation. If a surface low forms here you can throw out all the model runs.

Why trash the models? I feel stupid asking but I dint get why

[brunota2003]

Okay...so say 93L forms into a Cat 2 and moves over them, similar to the GFDL. Are they going to have enough time to jump out of the way? He said 3 to 7 days...right now, we are sitting at 5 days at most...someone see a possible issue here?

If they wait, and something happens, they'll have to abandon the vessels in place and evacuate by helicopter...which then leaves the vessels out there, where they could possibly damage the drill platform, or get damaged/sunk by the sea.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Just noticed where SAB's scientific dart toss landed at:

22/2345 UTC 17.4N 71.8W TOO WEAK 93L

That's 200+ miles away from the point TPC decided upon for the 00Z position. Massive uncertainty this evening.

I would have to agree with that position right now, it is showing the most convection and rotation. If a surface low forms here you can throw out all the model runs.

Why trash the models? I feel stupid asking but I dint get why

If the LLC forms where the MLC currently is then the system will be developing further east and north of where the models started from which means everything will change with the model runs.

[Stormcenter]

Isn't that usually the case with these disturbances?
Anyway I'm still not sold on this becoming anything
of significance as of this evening. I also don't see it
heading where the models have going this evening
based on the latest developments on where a possible center
is forming. IMO

Just noticed where SAB's scientific dart toss landed at:

22/2345 UTC 17.4N 71.8W TOO WEAK 93L

That's 200+ miles away from the point TPC decided upon for the 00Z position. Massive uncertainty this evening.

I would have to agree with that position right now, it is showing the most convection and rotation. If a surface low forms here you can throw out all the model runs.

[Blown Away]

Just noticed where SAB's scientific dart toss landed at:
22/2345 UTC 17.4N 71.8W TOO WEAK 93L
That's 200+ miles away from the point TPC decided upon for the 00Z position. Massive uncertainty this evening.

It appears the MLC is moving very little, maybe drifting NW?

[Florida1118]

"If the LLC forms where the MLC currently is then the system will be developing further east and north of where the models started from which means everything will change with the model runs."
---
Ok. Got it. Would that change the track any?

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

"If the LLC forms where the MLC currently is then the system will be developing further east and north of where the models started from which means everything will change with the model runs."
---
Ok. Got it. Would that change the track any?

Yes it would. A storm moving North-West located where the MLC currently is has a much better shot at traveling over Cuba or Haiti then a storm located further south traveling the same direction could miss Cuba and shoot the gap between Cuba and the YP.

[cycloneye]

But it would be devastating for Haiti if that turns out to be the dominant center.

[Weatherfreak000]

I have a question: why is that comma-shaped convective mass still firing such intense convection? At this point it looks almost detached from 93L. I don't understand why it's still firing..

[HURAKAN]

Very intense precipitation

[cycloneye]

The 00z surface map is void of any low in the Caribbean.

[floridasun78]

if we get new area of low pressure we see new track and could be affect by islands. make it weaker system if new center close to islands.

[Jagno]

Okay...so say 93L forms into a Cat 2 and moves over them, similar to the GFDL. Are they going to have enough time to jump out of the way? He said 3 to 7 days...right now, we are sitting at 5 days at most...someone see a possible issue here?

If they wait, and something happens, they'll have to abandon the vessels in place and evacuate by helicopter...which then leaves the vessels out there, where they could possibly damage the drill platform, or get damaged/sunk by the sea.

They have had issues since the day this mess started. No disrespect but Mr. Allen has had more inconsistent statements than a babbling 1 year old. This my dear is the very reason every resident along the Gulf Coast is watching, waiting and terrified as we all know how badly this could turn out for us.

[Hugo1989]

Por que si la onda tropical esta situada al sur de Haiti se ve la mayor parte de actividad de aguaceros y tronadas entre Puerto Rico y Republica dominicana??? el mapa se ve claramente una gran masa de nubosidad muy lejos de la 93L. o es que se esta desarrollando un sistema aparte?

[Jagno]

Por que si la onda tropical esta situada al sur de Haiti se ve la mayor parte de actividad de aguaceros y tronadas entre Puerto Rico y Republica dominicana??? el mapa se ve claramente una gran masa de nubosidad muy lejos de la 93L. o es que se esta desarrollando un sistema aparte?

American English translation please.

[Ntxwx]

American English translation please.

Because if the tropical wave is located south of Haiti is the most activity of showers and thunderstorms between Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic?? the map is clearly a mass of clouds far away from 93L. or is that it is developing a separate system?

[Macrocane]

Por que si la onda tropical esta situada al sur de Haiti se ve la mayor parte de actividad de aguaceros y tronadas entre Puerto Rico y Republica dominicana??? el mapa se ve claramente una gran masa de nubosidad muy lejos de la 93L. o es que se esta desarrollando un sistema aparte?

Translation:
If the tropical wave is south of Haiti, why is the strongest thunderstorm activity located between Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic? Is that another system developing? :