ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Vortmax1]

It has to cross Cuba. The TCHP is quite a bit different in the Straits right now:

[RevDodd]

Farther north, the big question is whether it tracks east of Hatteras or inland into NC. I don't see it moving into Charleston as the 12Z GFS forecasts. Maybe NC, though. But by then, there may not be much "tropical" about it. And I certainly don't buy the HWRF/GFDL forecasts of hurricane intensity. It won't be tropical then.

Do you feel the GFS is overplaying the influence of that cutoff that's progged to drop down? Is there some sense that it might retrograde enough to pull the whole shebang to the west somewhat?

Obviously in this neck of the woods, it would make a sizeable difference.

[plasticup]

The "center" is a very broad low pressure area between the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. It's not over by Belize, as some have suggested. Surface obs are your friend here. This won't be your typical tropical cyclone, by any means. It may not ever have a well-defined core of squalls. And it will likely have all heavy squalls east of the center as it passes south Florida. So don't focus on the center or the track as indicating where the heaviest squalls and strongest wind will impact.

The center could track into the SW FL peninsula, but that would still keep the heaviest rain east of Miami. That's not to say that Miami couldn't still get 3-6 inches of rain over the next day or so, some of it from the cold front moving through. But TS conditions may be confined to the beach areas.

Farther north, the big question is whether it tracks east of Hatteras or inland into NC. I don't see it moving into Charleston as the 12Z GFS forecasts. Maybe NC, though. But by then, there may not be much "tropical" about it. And I certainly don't buy the HWRF/GFDL forecasts of hurricane intensity. It won't be tropical then.

wxman57: Are there any reliable models still suggesting more storms to come out of this area next week? It seems no one is talking about that anymore.

CMC shows one coming up to Florida right behind this one.

[Evil Jeremy]

It seems no one is talking about that anymore.

I think everyone is concerned with the more imminent threat.

[wxman57]

wxman57: Are there any reliable models still suggesting more storms to come out of this area next week? It seems no one is talking about that anymore.

I'll let you know in a couple of weeks.

[dwsqos2]

Ok, while my no classification call was a bust, I need to post this to make myself feel better. TCHP was never going to an issue with this one, and really during what year will heat content in this portion of the basin during late September ever be an issue? Mabe in 1972 it was, but other than that I doubt it ever was or ever will be. The problems with this one were always going to be southwesterly flow aloft, dry air, and the inherent broadness of the monsoon trough. I just become a bit tired of heat content and sst maps. That is all.

Also, Cuba is not an issue for something as weak as this. Lili of 1996 crossed over a larger portion of Cuba and did not weaken one iota. This is much weaker than Lili, and I don't understand why it is so hard to grasp that land interaction impacts weak systems less negatively than strong systems. See Alex and Karl.

That said, my original call of a less than 50 knot peak still looks good.

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[Evil Jeremy]

Intermediate advisory cone update shows that whatever center the NHC is using, its tracking to the left of the track:

[tshizzle]

still just looks like a mess of clouds to me, cant imagine this doing much intensity-wise before it hits Cuba/Florida

[jhpigott]

what's the deal with the SFWMD weather radar. Hasn't updated in a while.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... 28radar%29

[ronjon]

If it tracks over the isle of youth, then most of the tracks that skirt the SE FL coast are too far east - probably look for an adjustment west based on the latest GFS and GFDL models. FYI - the 12z GFS actually takes the center west of Lake O.

[Cuber]

... there any reliable models still suggesting more storms to come out of this area next week? It seems no one is talking about that anymore.

There is a new thread at viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109559

[dwsqos2]

I'm particularly enjoying the .4 mb pressure difference over an entire set of HDOBs. That's about what I was expecting, but still.

[MGC]

Kind of a streach to call this a TD. I think the NHC decided to upgrade to a TD because it will hit south Florida and they want to get the word out. Very broad center with little convection located near the center. Looks like most of the weather will be east of the center, typical of a sheared TC. Just tried to call my sister in Ft Lauerdale and no answer. She is most likely at the beach and obilivious of the situation.....MGC

[CrazyC83]

Kind of a streach to call this a TD. I think the NHC decided to upgrade to a TD because it will hit south Florida and they want to get the word out. Very broad center with little convection located near the center. Looks like most of the weather will be east of the center, typical of a sheared TC. Just tried to call my sister in Ft Lauerdale and no answer. She is most likely at the beach and obilivious of the situation.....MGC

This is reminiscent of Grace in 2003, which was arguably not a TC at all.

[dwsqos2]

This isn't like Grace because while broad this is a bit more than a surface trough.

[Blown Away]

TAFB expects Nicole just north of Cuba in 24 hours.

TAFB in 48 hours has Nicole as a low pressure.

Still some time to organize if upper level winds allow it to happen.

[CrazyC83]

Based on the Recon center, it should make landfall on the Isle of Youth soon.

[Blown Away]

Kind of a streach to call this a TD. I think the NHC decided to upgrade to a TD because it will hit south Florida and they want to get the word out. Very broad center with little convection located near the center. Looks like most of the weather will be east of the center, typical of a sheared TC. Just tried to call my sister in Ft Lauerdale and no answer. She is most likely at the beach and obilivious of the situation.....MGC

Floridians are raised to goto the beach when tropical systems pass!!

[wxman57]

Based on the Recon center, it should make landfall on the Isle of Youth soon.

I think that's a small vortex rotating around a much larger low center. Obs indicate northerly winds just west of Grand Cayman Island in another vortex.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Based on the Recon center, it should make landfall on the Isle of Youth soon.

I think that's a small vortex rotating around a much larger low center. Obs indicate northerly winds just west of Grand Cayman Island in another vortex.

/agreed, noting the lack of a vortex or a drop. I dont think thats it.