ATL: OTTO - Post-tropical - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Nice burst tonight

[KWT]

Wow that is some pretty amazing rainfall totals according to the radar there thats for sure!

Should reduce soon though as the system finally starts to pull away to the ENE/NE.

[expat2carib]

I don't think its even that, as sad as it is everyone knows its no longer a threat to any major landmass bar maybe the Azores and so people frankly just don't case about it...plus as you said its been a busy month or so!

I think you are right, KWT. But speaking from one of many NON-major landmasses (Eastern Caribbean nations), we are having the WORST FLOODING IN HISTORY, and are under a state of emergency now for 36hrs. The damage toll on OTTO will be significant, even though not one single watch or warning was ever issued.

Honestly I am so tired of people saying this is no threat to land. We are land aren't we?

If a storm isn't named or it isn't threatening someone directly, most people do not think it's a big deal.
and you are right, bvigal, not one watch or warning issued.
I keep saying that even a tropical wave can cause serious problems to the fragile eco structure on our tiny islands.
We have terrible devastation that is occurring on our islands. We here on St. Maarten have had 18 inches of rain and have severe flooding.
and God knows how much damage from the flooding when the water recedes. and our beaches..severe erosion..
and don't talk about the loss in business for the past 4 days......cruise ships canceled, stores closed.

This may not have been a hurricane. This may not have been a direct hit.
But believe me, this has been a significant storm for our tiny islands.

I know this might be an incorrect political statement.

The Dutch islands have their meteorological services for the Islands on Curaçao.

The BVI have a lot of resources from the UK and do outsource some of their meteorological needs to the USVI/ Puerto Rico.

The French Islands have Meteo France.

The Caribcom Islands have different meteorological services on the Islands and are organized in CDERA.org.

I think we Islanders should be looking into our own backyard at first before we start criticize NHC or other organizations.

And please don't tell me we are too poor. It's just prioritized in another way......And that's our actual problem.... Isn't it?

Back on topic.

[msbee]

Excerpts from http://www2.bviplatinum.com/news.php?module=news&page=Article&articleID=1286401681
State of Emergency Declared; Worst Flood - DDM
Melissa French, Staff Reporter

...The entire Territory has been declared a state of emergency by Governor William Boyd McCleary on Wednesday following severe flooding that gripped the Territory, while the Department of Disaster Management (DDM) said it is the worst flood that has ever hit the Territory.

...Governor McCleary said the damage caused by this flooding has bypassed that of Earl. Four shelters are now open and persons are encouraged to utilise the shelters.

...That was yesterday, and it's still raining, a lot.

I have been following this and just wanted to let you know that I have been praying and will continue to pray for all of you.

Thank you!
I think the worst is over for SXM, but BVI and VI and PR are still getting it.
hang in there guys!

[Gustywind]

From our daily newspaper "France-Antilles"
fanceantilles.fr 06.10.2010
http://www.guadeloupe.franceantilles.fr ... -96289.php

Guadeloupe back to... green alert
The stormy rainy front now evacuated even if some thundery showers can even occur today in a more marginal and isolated way.
The stormy rainy front which caused strong rains this night now evacuated. Some thundery showers still occur today but they will henceforth be more marginal and isolated. Last night, thunderstorms and rains of strong intensity affected all the archipelago. In six hours, was raised 97,3 mm in Basse-Terre, 63,5 mm to the Saintes, 47,3 mm to Sainte-Rose, 45,5 mm to Saint-Anne, 43,8 mm in the Moule and 9 mm in Marie Galante. Besides, the radar of Guadeloupe allows to estimateaccumulations from 100 to 120 mm, punctually certainemnt more, surt all the Caribbean coast as well as in mountain.

[bvigal]

I don't think its even that, as sad as it is everyone knows its no longer a threat to any major landmass bar maybe the Azores and so people frankly just don't case about it...plus as you said its been a busy month or so!

I think you are right, KWT. But speaking from one of many NON-major landmasses (Eastern Caribbean nations), we are having the WORST FLOODING IN HISTORY, and are under a state of emergency now for 36hrs. The damage toll on OTTO will be significant, even though not one single watch or warning was ever issued.

Honestly I am so tired of people saying this is no threat to land. We are land aren't we?

If a storm isn't named or it isn't threatening someone directly, most people do not think it's a big deal.
and you are right, bvigal, not one watch or warning issued.
I keep saying that even a tropical wave can cause serious problems to the fragile eco structure on our tiny islands.
We have terrible devastation that is occurring on our islands. We here on St. Maarten have had 18 inches of rain and have severe flooding.
and God knows how much damage from the flooding when the water recedes. and our beaches..severe erosion..
and don't talk about the loss in business for the past 4 days......cruise ships canceled, stores closed.

This may not have been a hurricane. This may not have been a direct hit.
But believe me, this has been a significant storm for our tiny islands.

I know this might be an incorrect political statement.

The Dutch islands have their meteorological services for the Islands on Curaçao.

The BVI have a lot of resources from the UK and do outsource some of their meteorological needs to the USVI/ Puerto Rico.

The French Islands have Meteo France.

The Caribcom Islands have different meteorological services on the Islands and are organized in CDERA.org.

I think we Islanders should be looking into our own backyard at first before we start criticize NHC or other organizations.

And please don't tell me we are too poor. It's just prioritized in another way......And that's our actual problem.... Isn't it?

Back on topic.

I don't think anything said (above) was a criticism. I simply stated a fact. Lots of damage will be attributed to a Otto which never generated either storm watch or warning. Sometimes that happens. But sometimes much of the public doesn't realize the damage that can be done by "non-sexy" plain old rain! And msbee makes the same point.

[expat2carib]

I don't think anything said (above) was a criticism. I simply stated a fact. Lots of damage will be attributed to a Otto which never generated either storm watch or warning. Sometimes that happens. But sometimes much of the public doesn't realize the damage that can be done by "non-sexy" plain old rain! And msbee makes the same point.

Understood and emphatically shared. My point is just that the local meteo services have a big part in this. They should educate and warn the general (local) public.

See what a great job San Juan is doing. They had loads of factual (and descriptive like: most deaths occur in cars while driving into.....and so on...and so on...) warnings out.

[FLpanhandle91]

Latest IR frame shows a hurricane.. Eye beginning to show itself. Maybe I'm wrong though.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

[HURAKAN]

Latest IR frame shows a hurricane.. Eye beginning to show itself. Maybe I'm wrong though.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

That's an overshooting cloud, not an eye

[HURAKAN]

AL, 17, 2010100800, , BEST, 0, 238N, 671W, 50, 992, TS

no change in intensity

[chrisjslucia]

I don't think anything said (above) was a criticism. I simply stated a fact. Lots of damage will be attributed to a Otto which never generated either storm watch or warning. Sometimes that happens. But sometimes much of the public doesn't realize the damage that can be done by "non-sexy" plain old rain! And msbee makes the same point.

Understood and emphatically shared. My point is just that the local meteo services have a big part in this. They should educate and warn the general (local) public.

See what a great job San Juan is doing. They had loads of factual (and descriptive like: most deaths occur in cars while driving into.....and so on...and so on...) warnings out.

This discussion needs to run and run, because it addresses two real problems:
1. The Islands vary significantly in resources and sophistication of services (dependent on whether they are part of the USA/France or struggling independent states) but irrespective of that as Otto slowly wept its away from the South there seemed to be little or no coordination between the Islands as to what was happening to neighbours and would likely to happen to us / you next once it reached. That is something we need to work on in getting our own houses in order.
2. It is no point saying we are too dependent on the NHC - almost everything stems from their decision to call a system - until there is an Invest, there are few commonly accessed sources of information as to the nature, direction, scale, size of a system, for local people to check in and get some idea of what is going on or might happen. This is why, for me, the CIMMS Predict info was so good, as they flagged up systems early on and gave early model predictions as to track.

Anyway, I was sure I had posted these links earlier today and I'm sure Gusty will tell me to use the USA / Caribbean page for this but anyway, two links one of photos and one video of Dennery in Saint Lucia, which was under 5 feet of water yesterday.

http://denneryvibe.net/flood1.html
http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php ... 4663450068

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Macrocane]

How can it be a 50 kt storm still, IMO it's stronger than that, banding has improved, cloud tops have cooled convection has expanded.

[SouthDadeFish]

The blow-up of convection continues to expand as of 1:45Z. However, the center is still estimated to be on the western edge of the flare-up.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

the area of convection has really expanded

[HURAKAN]

pretty impressive

[wxman57]

Microwave imagery puts the center near the western edge of the convection. So it's still experiencing westerly wind shear.

[Buck]

Dramatic growth in just the last few hours.

[FLpanhandle91]

Outflow looking very healthy as of late..