ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[Vortex]

12Z CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Wx_Warrior]

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z HWRF..

[Bocadude85]

Yeah thats true apart from the big difference with Frances is there will likely be an upper trough rather then an upper high in place...

Yes the setup is a bit different. But I remember with Frances the computer models were calling for a northward turn.. not enough to recurve her but just enough to pick her up and send her towards the Carolinas.

[Weatherfreak000]

12z HWRF..

Yeesh. Throw it out. Future Colin would have to change direction to NW within today...if anything it appears to be trending more west than the models are picking up on.

[SouthFLTropics]

12Z CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Well that should get everyones attention again...Let's see if the Euro jumps onboard. I see that scenario as entirely possible if the system stays weak and then moves into a more favorable environment. If TD4 ramps up quickly I'm still calling for a fish unless the TUTT gets a hold of it and beats it up pretty good. Then we could see a weaker system turned to the west and trapped under the ridge. I think I remember a storm about 18 years ago that did the same thing. Hmmm.

SFT

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z HWRF..

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/ ... 2_wind.png

Yeesh. Throw it out. Future Colin would have to change direction to NW within today...if anything it appears to be trending more west than the models are picking up on.

Yeah, I agree. However, it is worth noting that even the right biased HWRF has trended slightly further south and west with this tun.

compare to:
6z run - http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/ ... 6_wind.png
0z run - http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/ ... 0_wind.png

[ROCK]

12z HWRF..

Yeesh. Throw it out. Future Colin would have to change direction to NW within today...if anything it appears to be trending more west than the models are picking up on.

The HWRF and GFDL are having a awful time this year....IMO...last year they were pretty good with track less so with intensity....this year its both....ugh

[South Texas Storms]

is there any chance of a texas landfall anymore or does this appear to be only an east coast threat?

[KWT]

The 12z CMC is much further south getting into the Caribbean as probably a wave/TD...

BUT the CMC doesn't have a very good grasp of the system to start with and is probably too weak and therefore its probably too far south...

Still the idea may not be a bad one if it does struggle to strengthen.

Keep watching!

[srainhoutx]

is there any chance of a texas landfall anymore or does this appear to be only an east coast threat?

HPC stated clearly this morning that the GOM as well as Florida are not out of the woods. Anyone from the Gulf to the East Coast need to be watching. Our neighbors in the Caribbean will 'feel' the first affects.

[South Texas Storms]

is there any chance of a texas landfall anymore or does this appear to be only an east coast threat?

HPC stated clearly this morning that the GOM as well as Florida are not out of the woods. Anyone from the Gulf to the East Coast need to be watching. Our neighbors in the Caribbean will 'feel' the first affects.

where can i find that hpc discussion?

[Gustywind]

is there any chance of a texas landfall anymore or does this appear to be only an east coast threat?

HPC stated clearly this morning that the GOM as well as Florida are not out of the woods. Anyone from the Gulf to the East Coast need to be watching. Our neighbors in the Caribbean will 'feel' the first affects.

Why feel??? Be careful with these type of assertion at more than 96H! I'd prefer could may might than feel that mean that this thing is something for us as we're far enough from the reality. Please try to weight the pros and the cons with your words. For us in the islands we don't appreciate personnal speculations!
Thanks

[srainhoutx]

is there any chance of a texas landfall anymore or does this appear to be only an east coast threat?

HPC stated clearly this morning that the GOM as well as Florida are not out of the woods. Anyone from the Gulf to the East Coast need to be watching. Our neighbors in the Caribbean will 'feel' the first affects.

where can i find that hpc discussion?

Here you go...

THE TROUGH IN THE EAST IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE FULL RECURVATURE...AND
THE COL IN THE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN TO ITS NORTH...SO
FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR. THE WEAKNESS
ALOFT TO ITS NORTH SHOULD SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AS IT NEARS
FLORIDA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

[Blown Away]

12Z canadian..sends weak system through NE carribean than greater antilles. System then strengthens in western bahamas and nears landfall along the SE FL coast in 6 days..

12Z from GFS and Canadian would surely have an impact on track with next advisory with a shift SW longer term appears a good bet.

** If Euro/Ukmet indicate a further W/SW posiiton than I thinks its a given track is changed longer term.

The Canadian wants to build in the ridge at 6 days so I think it landfalls then continues NW into maybe the NE GOM.

[South Texas Storms]

thanks...i guess we will just have to stay tuned!

[South Texas Storms]

what does the extended cmc show?

[KWT]

12Z canadian..sends weak system through NE carribean than greater antilles. System then strengthens in western bahamas and nears landfall along the SE FL coast in 6 days..

12Z from GFS and Canadian would surely have an impact on track with next advisory with a shift SW longer term appears a good bet.

** If Euro/Ukmet indicate a further W/SW posiiton than I thinks its a given track is changed longer term.

The Canadian wants to build in the ridge at 6 days so I think it landfalls then continues NW into maybe the NE GOM.

Its not a *true* ridge though, its just a surface reflection, all it means is it'll probably slow down, the upper pattern is utterly dominated by a mix of very shallow open ridges and moderate upper troughs. The CMC may not be a bad call though if it doesn't strengthen at all...

It does also mean it may not get the full shear blast from the TUTT.

[Ivanhater]

Well Well...take note on the 12z GFS and CMC...both further south.

[Riptide]

My precious visible and IR satellite loops are not updating.

EDIT: Continues to organize apparently. Shear remains very low.