ATL: Ex COLIN - Models

[KWT]

What I do see on he GFS/CMC...both runs are weaker this time round, may well see this one die off if the models are right but will need to be watched upstream still if the models are right tonight.

[Frank2]

Still a fishy with that Fall-type frontal trough between the US and Bermuda - catch a big one for me, Wayne (Colin)...

http://ggweather.com/qpf/qpf_gfs_12z_loop.htm

[ronjon]

12Z HWRF:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010080212-invest91l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Is futher west of the 06Z run and appears to slow toward the end as the trough lifts out.

[Blown Away]

12Z HWRF:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010080212-invest91l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Is futher west of the 06Z run and appears to slow toward the end as the trough lifts out.

Much farther west, like 300 miles west before making north turn along 70W instead of the 6z 65W.

[ROCK]

is there any chance of a texas landfall anymore or does this appear to be only an east coast threat?

HPC stated clearly this morning that the GOM as well as Florida are not out of the woods. Anyone from the Gulf to the East Coast need to be watching. Our neighbors in the Caribbean will 'feel' the first affects.

Why feel??? Be careful with these type of assertion at more than 96H! I'd prefer could may might than feel that mean that this thing is something for us as we're far enough from the reality. Please try to weight the pros and the cons with your words. For us in the islands we don't appreciate personnal speculations!
Thanks

first your splitting hairs....me meant that the islands would likely "feel" the effects before anyone state side. This could be from a T-storm to higher tides to a TD.....look at the models if you need proof.....most trending south and some nothing more than a TW as it gets sheared to death....

also we should all respect the MODS.....they are a MOD for a good reason....

[Ivanhater]

Eh, 12z Euro is fishy again with an open wave for about 84 hours

[ROCK]

Eh, 12z Euro is fishy again with an open wave for about 84 hours

wonder what it is seeing...you typically dont see an open wave running out to see...more like low level flow into the carib....

[Ivanhater]

Eh, 12z Euro is fishy again with an open wave for about 84 hours

wonder what it is seeing...you typically dont see an open wave running out to see...more like low level flow into the carib....

Well apparently there is a host of Upper level lows in its way on the Euro

[ROCK]

Eh, 12z Euro is fishy again with an open wave for about 84 hours

wonder what it is seeing...you typically dont see an open wave running out to see...more like low level flow into the carib....

Well apparently there is a host of Upper level lows in its way on the Euro

we all know how good the Euro is with ULLs....ala Bonnie...

[Ivanhater]

You know, this model did well with the details when it came to the interaction with the two waves off Africa that merged. This is showing a possible "split" or decoupling around the Islands, with the low still moving west and the MLC going off to the NW. I wonder if we might see that

[KWT]

Quite possibly not a bad call Ivanhater, the TUTT just looks awesome in terms of how strong it is...2007 type pattern aloft in that part of the basin at the moment, the type that killed Ingrid and Karen...

[cycloneye]

18z BAMS

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WHXX01 KWBC 021828
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1828 UTC MON AUG 2 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (AL042010) 20100802 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100802  1800   100803  0600   100803  1800   100804  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.8N  41.8W   14.1N  45.8W   15.5N  49.9W   17.0N  54.2W
BAMD    12.8N  41.8W   13.9N  45.1W   15.2N  48.2W   16.3N  51.3W
BAMM    12.8N  41.8W   13.9N  45.3W   15.3N  49.1W   16.8N  52.8W
LBAR    12.8N  41.8W   13.7N  44.9W   14.9N  48.4W   16.1N  51.8W
SHIP        30KTS          36KTS          44KTS          51KTS
DSHP        30KTS          36KTS          44KTS          51KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100804  1800   100805  1800   100806  1800   100807  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.9N  58.4W   22.2N  65.5W   24.7N  70.8W   27.0N  74.3W
BAMD    17.5N  54.2W   19.6N  58.3W   20.2N  60.1W   19.2N  61.9W
BAMM    18.4N  56.3W   21.6N  61.7W   23.7N  65.3W   25.1N  68.7W
LBAR    17.2N  55.0W   19.1N  60.4W   22.8N  64.6W   23.3N  66.7W
SHIP        57KTS          58KTS          56KTS          58KTS
DSHP        57KTS          58KTS          56KTS          58KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.8N LONCUR =  41.8W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  14KT
LATM12 =  11.8N LONM12 =  39.1W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  10.6N LONM24 =  37.0W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[cycloneye]

18z SHIP run

Hey peeps,shear decreases after the big wall at 72 hours

Code: Select all

         *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *        FOUR  AL042010  08/02/10  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    33    36    40    44    51    57    59    58    56    56    57    58
V (KT) LAND       30    33    36    40    44    51    57    59    58    56    56    57    58
V (KT) LGE mod    30    33    36    39    43    49    54    56    55    51    48    48    50

SHEAR (KT)         5     3     6     9     8    14    17    33    30    32    18    17    12
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     1     2     2     0    -2     0     2     2     3     7     3     0    -1
SHEAR DIR         64   141   258   276   308   269   252   253   275   292   283   303   308
SST (C)         28.0  28.1  28.0  28.3  28.5  28.8  28.7  28.6  28.6  28.7  28.9  28.9  28.8
POT. INT. (KT)   140   142   141   146   148   152   150   147   146   148   150   149   146
ADJ. POT. INT.   145   153   151   157   158   158   149   140   136   136   134   127   121
200 MB T (C)   -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5
TH_E DEV (C)       7     8     8     9    10    11    12    11    11    11    11    11    12
700-500 MB RH     65    60    61    61    59    57    57    60    63    60    59    58    55
GFS VTEX (KT)      6     5     5     6     7  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    35    32    28    28    28    23    -7   -35   -63   -92  -105   -97   -70
200 MB DIV         8    -2     4    -3    13    30    49    31    20    11    -4    14    15
LAND (KM)       1422  1311  1212  1151  1123   948   703   498   529   690   856   982   969
LAT (DEG N)     12.8  13.4  14.0  14.7  15.4  17.3  19.3  21.0  22.8  24.7  27.0  28.4  29.3
LONG(DEG W)     41.8  44.1  46.3  48.7  51.1  55.3  59.1  61.9  63.8  65.5  67.2  68.2  68.5
STM SPEED (KT)    18    23    23    24    23    21    18    14    13    13    11     7     4
HEAT CONTENT      26    29    38    43    74    73    49    47    33    38    29    18    11

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14      CX,CY: -12/  5
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  550  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  10.7 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  69.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   1.   2.   7.  14.  20.  25.  29.  31.  32.  33.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   4.   5.   7.   7.   4.   1.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -6.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   4.   4.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   6.  10.  14.  21.  27.  29.  28.  26.  26.  27.  28.

   ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042010       FOUR 08/02/10  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.4
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   6.2 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   4.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 122.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.7
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  67.6 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  10.7 Range: 30.6 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.2
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  42.0 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    41% is   3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    22% is   2.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    16% is   3.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     9% is   2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042010       FOUR 08/02/10  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042010       FOUR 08/02/2010  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)


[KWT]

30kts of shear really would hurt a system like this, probably would be enough to make it open back up again...

CMC clear left outlier as well...

[sandyb]

what does the extended cmc show?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCT ... ml#picture

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z BAM runs shift left..



**Model consensus is also now left of the 11am NHC track**

[sandyb]

what does the extended cmc show?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCT ... ml#picture

shows 180 out setting on the carolinas!

[Weatherboy1]

Not that I really think is a perfect Andrew analog, but it would be interesting if 4 took a similar path, fought off the shear and then got caught under a new ridge as the old trough lifted out. It's not an impossible scenario to imagine, assuming this thing can hold together for the next couple of days. Note I'm talking trackwise, NOT strength wise.

[sandyb]

jb is showing a track like bertha headed in nc

[KWT]

It won't happen weatherboy IMO, the models look way too troughy and there is one trough after another comes through, though they aren't that strong after the first one digs down...

CMC is certainly an outlier at the moment, the NHC track is a little bit on the right side of the guidence now, and I wonder whether they expect a weaker system they may trend a little to the west next time round.