ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[tgenius]

So is this going to be a player for SFL? I have been busy at work so just catching up...

[KWT]

Wow 98L/Paula has the presentation that screams RI once it pulls away from land a little further...

The NHC have been WAY behind the curve with this system!

[gatorcane]

So is this going to be a player for SFL? I have been busy at work so just catching up...

Too early to say for sure....

[Ptarmigan]

Wow 98L/Paula has the presentation that screams RI once it pulls away from land a little further...

The NHC have been WAY behind the curve with this system!

You are onto something. I notice when storms undergo RI, they tend to have a more circular/comma in appearance. Yes, NHC is way behind. No advisory yet.

[gatorcane]

Have you noticed this system has trumped the dry air also? Helps when you have it embedded in an elongated trough. Many of the naysayers indicated dry air would get to this. It's not even close to getting to this.

[brunota2003]

It is possible the wind is too high, or they flew through something that is unsupportive of the environment. Look for them to do another pass in the same area to confirm the wind speeds.

Pending another pass, I think 50 kts looks the best, a blend of the data...I think that 77 knots is not representative.

[Aric Dunn]

Have you noticed this system has trumped the dry air also? Helps when you have it embedded in an elongated trough. Many of the naysayers indicated dry air would get to this. It's not even close to getting to this.

The main part of all the dry air was in the upper levels the low/ mid levels were not all that bad till you hit the southern gulf. and now moisture is increasing as the trough approaches so it should less of an issues and this system should produce plenty of forcing..

[KWT]

As I said before this system presentation is very worrying because it has got at least 24-36hrs if it heads NW before it gets somewhat constrained again by land and if this system is at 50-60kts already like recon is hinting at then as we saw with Karl there is more then enough time for this to bomb into a major...and given what history shows with systems in this part of the basin its a very real threat IMO.

[gatorcane]

As I said before this system presentation is very worrying because it has got at least 24-36hrs if it heads NW before it gets somewhat constrained again by land and if this system is at 50-60kts already like recon is hinting at then as we saw with Karl there is more then enough time for this to bomb into a major...and given what history shows with systems in this part of the basin its a very real threat IMO.

I agree. Also a stronger system means more poleward (more northerly vector) in this case, steered more by the 200-300MB flow.

[SouthFloridawx]

Does anyone know where to get Tropical Floaters for Google Earth... besides CIMSS?

[KWT]

The main part of all the dry air was in the upper levels the low/ mid levels were not all that bad till you hit the southern gulf. and now moisture is increasing as the trough approaches so it should less of an issues and this system should produce plenty of forcing..

Yeah there is alot of things that support this system probably becoming much stronger then most of the models are currently seeing, I think only the GFDL at 00z had a good grip on strength, I think for whatever reason they are missing a tightening system in pretty decent conditions with super high heat content, we saw what Karl did with similar background conditions and less heat content/water.

[Weatherfreak000]

Naysayers wanna get some of that crow now?

I'll take mine with extra hot sauce, bones, feathers, and all.
Hmmm, cyclogenesis without model support yesterday. Mother nature still sometimes trumps computers.

It is funny you mention that, a few storms this year have snuck past the models as far as development. Somehow, they aren't doing so well in picking up on storms in I suppose irregular thermodynamics....however, pro mets love bringing back up how even cat 5's can get missed by the models.


Moral of the story being those that hug the models, any model, crash and burn with them.

[canes101]

Storm2k map has gone to "No Active Storms" http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric= This happens when they go from an active invest to a storm.. Advisory should be very soon

We dont change the titles of the threads until its official. You are right about the automated graphic.

Yes I know that Luis. And I agree thats a good policy! I was just stating that, that normaly happens right before they issue advisories for a new storm

[brunota2003]

This system is fairly small as well, which the lower resolution models would have issues picking up on.

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The NHC will have a hard time forecasting the intenisty and track of this system, the models have not had a good initialization of the system and they have been depicting a stationary low for several days but if it is stronger it may be picked up by the trough sooner than expected, I guess this first advisory will have a much lower than normal confidence.

[canes101]

Wow 98L/Paula has the presentation that screams RI once it pulls away from land a little further...

The NHC have been WAY behind the curve with this system!

What do you mean by "The NHC have been WAY behind the curve with this system!"???

[Macrocane]

What do you mean by "The NHC have been WAY behind the curve with this system!"???

It's obvious that it has been a tropical cyclone for at least 24 hours and the NHC didn't upgraded it even when they had several imagery, data and observations that said this was already a tropical cyclone.

[KWT]

This system is fairly small as well, which the lower resolution models would have issues picking up on.

Yeah and a small system will be able to take advantage of good conditions aloft, I seriously think unless something alters and shear increases again from the east we'll probably get a classic 4/5 NW Caribbean October hurricane but still a little too early for that call...

[Decomdoug]

I'll put $10.00 on going right to T.S. at 5 P.M.

[Vortex]

Given the forecast(NWS Miami) for South Florida later this week/weekend Paula should remain over the NW carribean for the next week. Any time in which South Florida has been hit by a hurricane in mid-late October it's often right after the first cool shot(per John Hope/Max Mayfield/Climatology) John and Max have stated that many times over the years....IMO, I think it will meander across the NW carribean through the weekend and then begin a NE movement early next week..If Paulat is is at or west of 85W and around 20N when the NE movement commences climatology would strongly favor a keys/southern florida strike or within 60 miles....


NWS Miami:


ALTHOUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THIS FORECAST
WILL STILL FEATURE HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA...IT APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN
ABRUPT END FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS A
DEEPENING UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...ENDING ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AS MID-LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...USHERING
A MUCH COOLER/DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR MASS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. BASED ON PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS AND DEW
POINT PROGS...LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
MAY REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TO THE WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AT
METRO SITES LIKELY THE COOLEST WE HAVE SINCE SINCE EARLY APRIL.
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST ON SATURDAY...
WITH DEVELOPING NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO GRADUAL AIR
MASS MODIFICATION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.