ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

[Macrocane]

It seems that this system is giving the last chance to the NHC to do something with it, seriously it has really become better organized in the last few hours it such an interesting little system.

[HURAKAN]

Center must be reforming off shore. Pretty good convective blow up on the eastern side of the system. If it looks like a duck????.......MGC

It could be a goose!!!

[hockeytim19]

Interesting

Gosh... doesn't that look just like a well-defined frontal system.... only on a much much smaller scale?! So strange.

[Ivanhater]

[HURAKAN]

Deserves to be upgraded!

[ozonepete]

Center must be reforming off shore. Pretty good convective blow up on the eastern side of the system. If it looks like a duck????.......MGC

It could be a goose!!!

[ozonepete]

:uarrow: Deserves to be upgraded!

Could be a headache for the NHC for the umpteenth time. Convection clearly trying to wrap around the center.

[Ivanhater]

How would they go from saying already inland to organizing offshore? Not the best work from the NHC but they are human.

Still the best regardless

[loon]

not sure how reliable the ensemble is but they seem to all agree last runs

[MGC]

Or a ugly duckling.....MGC

[Ivanhater]

[ozonepete]

How would they go from saying already inland to organizing offshore? Not the best work from the NHC but they are human.

Still the best regardless

Yeah, Ivanhater. I was thinking the same thing. They are just human like all of us, and really by FAR the best we could have. Who among us could say we would have called it better? even though I was skeptical all day about this going inland, I wouldn't want to be on the record about it when millions of people are watching me, as they do the NHC.

[HURAKAN]

I usually throw them the towel when the system is far in the Atlantic and observations are very limited, but right next to the coast? They dropped this one.

[HURAKAN]

Definitely not giving up!!!

[ozonepete]

Remember this is a small system. Correction. These winds would be in the right front sector if they are east northeast.

[tailgater]

This shows the LLC, if it has one to WSW side of the blow up.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir2.html
this one shows it even clearer
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html

[HURAKAN]

Up to see the 2 am TWO. Maybe it says that the low pressure system is reaching the Louisiana-Arkansas border!!! LOL.

May not develop but keeping us entertain while 96L gets better organized.

[ozonepete]

Up to see the 2 am TWO. Maybe it says that the low pressure system is reaching the Louisiana-Arkansas border!!! LOL.

May not develop but keeping us entertain while 96L gets better organized.

You said it. I can't make it to the 2AM - gotta go to bed. See you all tomorrow...

[Steve]

The southern portions of the coastal parishes of SC/SW LA (Terrebonne, St. Mary, Iberia, Vermilion, Cameron) are wet. Much of that area consists of bays/open water, lowlands, swamps and coastal marsh. There's likely no difference between any system 15 miles offshore or 15 miles inland. I read a few pages ago where Masters said the reason it wasn't classified was because it never really closed off. I'd be surprised if that was true even if they don't end up producing observations. Smart money says it made TD or, at least, STD. If you grew up near the Gulf Coast, you can tell when you're dealing with tropical weather. From the low clouds to the smaller raindrops, to the different feel to the air, you just know. I'm interested in seeing how far west 95L retrogrades and whether it can make a run for Lake Charles.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... h&loop=yes

[HURAKAN]

Steve, Masters is on vacation and Dr. Rob Carver wrote that article.