ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

Yall, if its weaker its going west, plain and simple...if its stronger its looks like the Central gulf coast. Not really complicated. Although I just got back from some vodka crans so who knows.

August is coming soon, so everyone rest up!

[lonelymike]

Although I just got back from some vodka crans so who knows.


Celebrating your initiation into the brotherhood of the Euro no doubt

[sphelps8681]

Looking more like a Rita track. Some of our local mets have been forecasting a landfall from La to Texas the last couple of days.

[jasons2k]

Why am I not surprised to see this "turn of events"?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (AL032010) 20100722 1200 UTC]

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100722 1200 100723 0000 100723 1200 100724 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.6N 74.4W 22.3N 76.9W 23.3N 79.5W 24.5N 81.8W
BAMD 21.6N 74.4W 22.6N 76.8W 23.6N 79.7W 24.8N 82.9W
BAMM 21.6N 74.4W 22.6N 76.7W 23.7N 79.3W 25.0N 81.9W
LBAR 21.6N 74.4W 22.4N 76.6W 23.4N 79.1W 24.8N 82.0W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 37KTS 41KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 37KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100724 1200 100725 1200 100726 1200 100727 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.6N 84.5W 27.6N 89.3W 29.4N 93.5W 32.2N 96.5W
BAMD 26.0N 86.1W 28.4N 91.7W 31.1N 96.5W 33.5N 99.6W
BAMM 26.1N 84.8W 28.4N 89.9W 30.7N 94.2W 34.1N 96.7W
LBAR 26.1N 84.9W 29.3N 89.7W 32.4N 92.1W 36.6N 89.8W
SHIP 45KTS 52KTS 55KTS 53KTS
DSHP 45KTS 52KTS 37KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.6N LONCUR = 74.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 21.2N LONM12 = 72.7W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 20.7N LONM24 = 70.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[sandwichpick]

So that would be an eastward shift?

[cycloneye]

Is not my fault, is them that have not updated the graphic.

Edit= There is the graphic.

[lostsole]

I noticed a lot of people, based on models think this thing is going to texas, but history shows that storms do not travel that way, they always hook upward when they are already this high in lat. correct? So who is on board with thinking the models will shift back east in time?

[poof121]

What does the latest OFCI "model" say? Maybe we can get an idea on where the cone might fall...

[caneman]

I was up early this morning around 4AM and it looked like shear had backed way off so this doesn't surprise me and increaded moisture to the west. I wouldn't be surprised either to see an eastward shift. A track across Cuba seems unlikely. And that my friends is a lesson to not hang your hats on one model

[thetruesms]

If you're just itching for models, the Florida Division of Forestry runs an in-house model. Obviously, its primarily for fire weather, but does cover the area fairly well. It is the MM5, though, so it's really more for something to chew on before the next cycle than anything else

7 km: http://www.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/fore ... 5-7km.html
36 hours, tomorrow morning


21 km: http://www.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/fore ... -21km.html
60 hours, tomorrow night

[sphelps8681]

Yall, if its weaker its going west, plain and simple...if its stronger its looks like the Central gulf coast. Not really complicated. Although I just got back from some vodka crans so who knows.

August is coming soon, so everyone rest up!

What would be considered a weak storm? TW/TD/TS

[TexasF6]

Models from wunderground poster...did not post!!!...see it here at the bottom: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/StormW/show.html

[wzrgirl1]

Curious....are the new model runs initiated with the new center of circulation yet? Or will this surely change once recon gets in there?

[srainhoutx]

The models will change as more data is ingested. Certainly RECON data will play a big role in future track guidance.

[SouthFloridawx]

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/10072212AL0310_ships.txt

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* THREE AL032010 07/22/10 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 41 45 48 52 54 55 55 53
V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 41 45 48 52 54 37 30 28
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 39 42 44 48 53 37 30 28

SHEAR (KT) 11 13 14 9 17 18 22 13 11 14 17 12 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -1 -1 3 -1 1 -2 2 -4 5 0
SHEAR DIR 224 166 149 115 101 122 104 134 88 140 133 162 132
SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.0 26.3 24.0
POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 163 165 167 169 165 161 165 166 152 117 97
ADJ. POT. INT. 148 150 153 155 156 158 151 146 146 146 131 100 84
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -52.3 -51.6 -51.7
TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 11 10 12 9 13 9 14 8
700-500 MB RH 61 59 60 54 52 52 51 55 56 53 58 58 55
GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 11 12 10 8 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 29 39 36 28 22 -6 -27 -65 -81 -70 -82 -37 -33
200 MB DIV 17 13 -25 -15 -1 -17 -7 4 1 -6 -14 7 -18
LAND (KM) 118 120 122 109 117 78 249 273 80 14 -109 -332 -538
LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.1 22.6 23.2 23.7 25.0 26.1 27.3 28.4 29.5 30.7 32.4 34.1
LONG(DEG W) 74.4 75.6 76.7 78.0 79.3 81.9 84.8 87.4 89.9 92.1 94.2 95.8 96.7
STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 12 11 11 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 79 73 53 53 86 2 68 25 40 2 25 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 32. 32. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 23.

** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032010 THREE 07/22/10 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032010 THREE 07/22/10 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032010 THREE 07/22/2010 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

[Blown Away]

Current position looks to be a good 30+ miles NNW of the 12z model initial point. Just an observation.

[ROCK]

interesting GFS ensemble tracks.....EURO destroys it after its encounter with Cuba....this afternoons run will be telling....


didnt they run some NOAA planes yesterday? model should have digested that data last night....

[HouTXmetro]

interesting GFS ensemble tracks.....EURO destroys it after its encounter with Cuba....this afternoons run will be telling....


didnt they run some NOAA planes yesterday? model should have digested that data last night....

Shear plus Terrain my be the death kneel for this system.

[caneman]

Doesn't look like it will be interacting with Cuba at this point. Can we declare the Euro a bust if that doesn't happen and it doesn't get destroyed as the Euro states?