ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[hurricanefloyd5]

opps I got the we and could mixed up it should be could we? lol

[btangy]

We just finished the PREDICT NCAR-GV research mission. Here is the 925 mb analysis from our dropsonde data that I drew up really quickly. We weren't able to sample the N side of the storm near Cuba because of airspace restrictions, but we sampled the southern side of the storm where all the strong convection is. You can see that there is an elongated trough extended to the SW of the system at lower levels. The winds right around the center are pretty weak... about 5-15 knots. The strongest winds (35 knots) are well to the S and SE. The circulation at middle levels also elongated and slightly to the NE of the lower level trough/center of circulation, probably due to some southwesterly shear. Definitely has a better structure than what we found yesterday.

[tshizzle]

recon thread hasnt even shown 25mph wind yet, how is this a TD? its really just a bunch of clouds with no organization as far as i can tell

[plasticup]

we could see a possible hurricane then

Based on what may I ask?

I'm guessing the thought is that a slower trough might give the storm more time to develop

[Evil Jeremy]

We just finished the PREDICT NCAR-GV research mission. Here is the 925 mb analysis from our flight data that I drew up really quickly. We weren't able to sample the N side of the storm near Cuba because of airspace restrictions, but we sampled the southern side of the storm where all the strong convection is. You can see that there is an elongated trough extended to the SW of the system at lower levels. The circulation at middle levels also elongated and slightly to the NE of the lower level trough/center of circulation, probably due to some southwesterly shear. Definitely has a better structure than what we found yesterday.

What kind of winds did you find?

[Evil Jeremy]

recon thread hasnt even shown 25mph wind yet, how is this a TD? its really just a bunch of clouds with no organization as far as i can tell

Actually, there have been multiple recon obs with 30+ MPH winds.

[plasticup]

recon thread hasnt even shown 25mph wind yet, how is this a TD? its really just a bunch of clouds with no organization as far as i can tell

There were a ton of observations of 26 kts are flight level, but the SFMR readings were all flagged. And based on organization I don't think there is any doubt that this is a TD

[artist]

We just finished the PREDICT NCAR-GV research mission. Here is the 925 mb analysis from our flight data that I drew up really quickly. We weren't able to sample the N side of the storm near Cuba because of airspace restrictions, but we sampled the southern side of the storm where all the strong convection is. You can see that there is an elongated trough extended to the SW of the system at lower levels. The circulation at middle levels also elongated and slightly to the NE of the lower level trough/center of circulation, probably due to some southwesterly shear. Definitely has a better structure than what we found yesterday.

What kind of winds did you find?

not btangy but from his post above -

The strongest winds (35 knots) are well to the S and SE

[Aric Dunn]

Possible reason for the westward shift to the models.. As the low over the SE yesterday lifted out the ridge over the western atlantic built west slightly over florida in the low/mid levels. Currently the steering is very weak at the low to mid levels where the TD is being steered by. the next short wave that is swinging through the lower Mississippi should be enough to get the TD to start actually moving north but probably still slow at first. looking at the latest WV the Shortwave is not dropping all to much right now and is only changing the flow a little more too the SSW. It could also be that the models have underestimated the attachment to the monsoon trough and moving the TD out too fast. The TD will still likely be picked up but it seems it will be farther west and slightly slower than currently forecast since the ridge has build back a little.

[srainhoutx]

Possible reason for the westward shift to the models.. As the low over the SE yesterday lifted out the ridge over the western atlantic built west slightly over florida in the low/mid levels. Currently the steering is very weak at the low to mid levels where the TD is being steered by. the next short wave that is swinging through the lower Mississippi should be enough to get the TD to start actually moving north but probably still slow at first. looking at the latest WV the Shortwave is not dropping all to much right now and is only changing the flow a little more too the SSW. It could also be that the models have underestimated the attachment to the monsoon trough and moving the TD out too fast. The TD will still likely be picked up but it seems it will be farther west and slightly slower than currently forecast since the ridge has build back a little.

WV Imagery...

[Aric Dunn]

Also here in central florida there are already reports of 5 to almost 7 inches of rain in brevard county..

[hurricanefloyd5]

how far out do you expect the TS Forcs winds will be aric

[tolakram]

Glad to hear of the upgrade / downgrade. I don't think this is very tropical, and if it is it won't be for long.

Regardless, this storm may show just how much damage organized heavy rains can do, I sincerely hope everyone in it's path stays safe and takes this seriously.

[Ev1948]

Also here in central florida there are already reports of 5 to almost 7 inches of rain in brevard county..

I live in South Brevard County and don't think we have had that much rain yet..

[artist]

Derek Ortt's latest-

Posted 9/28/2010 1:33 PM EDT on pnj.com Prod
Tropical Depression 16 formed this morning in the northwestern Caribbean. This was the broad area of low-pressure that has been followed for the past couple of days. The depression is poorly organized and environmental conditions do not favor true tropical development. A strong upper trough and a cold front are not that far to the northeast. Therefore, any intensification is expected to be of a non-tropical nature. Satellite imagery shows a very poorly defined broad center with all of the convective activity well to the south. In some ways, the system resembles a subtropical cyclone more than a tropical cyclone.

The depression is expected to move to the north-northeast and pass a little to the east of Florida. Therefore, the flooding rains that were feared may not occur. However, the northwest Bahamas are likely to receive 10-15 inches of rain. The weather is then expected to spread up the coast, from the Carolinas through New England. However, by that time, the system is likely to be extra-tropical. During the transition, it is possible that it could intensify a little and be named Nicole.

After impacting the Bahamas and Florida, it is likely to bring some wind and rain to the Carolinas. Currently, the thought is that the system will remain east of the Carolinas, but strike New England. There is some uncertainty with this, however.

To the west of the depression, the remnants of Matthew continue to produce heavy rainfall. Unfortunately, reports from Mexico indicate that the feared massive death toll has in fact occurred. There are reports from CNN that there may be as many as 1,000 dead in Mexico.

[Aric Dunn]

how far out do you expect the TS Forcs winds will be aric

well with the new model tracks its very likely.. also there should be a increasing pressure gradient along the central florida east coast today and tomorrow. It could bring some fairly strong winds especially along coast.

[hurricanefloyd5]

how far out do you expect the TS Forcs winds will be aric

well with the new model tracks its very likely.. also there should be a increasing pressure gradient along the central florida east coast today and tomorrow. It could bring some fairly strong winds especially along coast.

so again when do you expect ts warnings br issue for us aric

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I live just NNW of Tampa and for the past few days our storms have been moving from southwest towards the northeast. This afternoon I notice they are coming towards us from the southeast. Would this be a result of the Depression being pulled up by the front?

Its a result of the steering flow over the region. Yesterday it was SW, today, SE. It's more because of the trough itself having lower pressure than the feature having moved off the carolinas, really nothing to do with TD16 as yet. The upper levels are still southwesterly though.

[artist]

how far out do you expect the TS Forcs winds will be aric

well with the new model tracks its very likely.. also there should be a increasing pressure gradient along the central florida east coast today and tomorrow. It could bring some fairly strong winds especially along coast.

so when do you think this might decide to move north and hit the state now Aric?

[CrazyC83]

The pressure of 998mb is fairly low for a weak depression though...