ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[abajan]

Very high gusts from the SE. Lots of roofs gone. Shutting down computer.

[Gustywind]

From Stormcarib.com http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... nica.shtml

Kudos to Crown Weather and to Chris- Who’s watching and warning?
By Micheal Colaire <nichs2002 at yahoo.com>
Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2010 00:39:15 -0700 (PDT)

Greetings!
To those who have been following the cyclogenesis of this system the
inevitability of this system’s formation seemed a guarantee…so yet again
the reality of impending Tropical storm Tomas which only less than 24 hrs ago
was nothing but a vigorous tropical wave- underscores the need for more
advanced Tropical system Caribbean forecasting in conjunction with the NHC.

Kudos are in order to Crown weather which accurately predicted this system with
relevant intensity forecasts as well, and to Christopher of St. Lucia who
alerted based on their projections –well done.

The alerting mechanisms for tropical cyclone formation in our region
definitely needs to be more pro-active and timely. The cost /consequence of
such un-timeliness with forecasting is quite truly a human one.
Indeed, throughout the island chain but more so in St. Lucia and especially in
Dominica where Islanders and lovers of Creole are out celebrating aspects of
the culture’s music, dance and food- the lack of overall awareness of a
threatening system could actually make the human impact rather serious. Because
Who’s really watching and or warning at this point?

The fact that this system has caught so many off guard should hopefully serve
as a lesson which out to be well learnt- then again we do have a dilemma of
quickly forgetting lessons taught-which is a sort of an annual Hurricane
amnesia -if You will… Perhaps it a coping mechanism of sorts, nonetheless we
must all get our act together more quickly especially during the 6 month long
Hurricane season.

So far the occasional shower or light squall has come through here, but
nothing really intense as yet. Let’s pray this system does not get too
powerful while crossing the Windward/ Leeward islands.

May God’s Blessings continue to be upon us all!

[Gustywind]

Very high gusts from the SE. Lots of roofs gone. Shutting down computer.

oh boy :eek : be safe and dry Abajan!!!

[Gustywind]

[crownweather]

Wow!! I'm speechless with the kudos to us here at Crown Weather!!

Rob at Crown Weather

[Gustywind]

[chrisjslucia]

Very high gusts from the SE. Lots of roofs gone. Shutting down computer.

Take care brother, you and everyone on the island.

[Gustywind]

Waouw that's becoming worrying now my carib friends... be very vigilant and continue keep us informed as possible.

[cycloneye]

Martiniqie radar.

[Gustywind]

[amich]

Here in St. Vincent its just started to rain. Nothing more than a normal rain shower. But I've read what has been happening in Barbados, so preparing for worse!

[Gustywind]

The northern quadran is bursting and seems pretty intense. Looks like spiral bands to NE are so well formed and should reach some portions of the Leewards islands including Guadeloupe during the next 12H...

[cycloneye]

Here in St. Vincent its just started to rain. Nothing more than a normal rain shower. But I've read what has been happening in Barbados, so preparing for worse!

Another Caribbean friend joins us so Welcome to storm2k.We have a thread for the Caribbean members to post the daily weather conditions in their areas. You can visit the thread at U.S & Caribbean Weather forum and the link to get to the thread is at my signature below. But you can post here how are the conditions in St Vincent as Tomas moves thru the islands.

[Gustywind]

From a friend at Barbabos...
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... ados.shtml

- First images
By "Mark M " <markbgi at hotmail.com>
Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2010 10:58:41 +0000

Sent from my BlackBerry® wireless device from LIME A tree is down and a robust one...

[cycloneye]

Decoded first VDM of this mission.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 11:30Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 10:47:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 12°59'N 59°52'W (12.9833N 59.8667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 19 miles (30 km) to the WSW (246°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,033m (9,951ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the WNW (298°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 20° at 52kts (From the NNE at ~ 59.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 57 nautical miles (66 statute miles) to the WNW (301°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.32 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 1°C (34°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character (Undecoded): SPIRAL EYEWALL
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 360° to 180° (N to S)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 50 nautical miles (58 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 10:31:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SLP EXTRAP FROM DROPSONDE
SEVERAL SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING IN TO CTR FROM NORTH

[cyclonic chronic]

if u look at the pressure readings on about the last 6or so obs, it seems as if the gradiant is very tight once they get inside of 1007-1008 mb. it caught my eye just wondering if anyone else did and why does it seem like that.

[LarryWx]

Needs to be watched very closely even though the risk to the US is pretty close to 0...

Climo agrees with you. Since 1851, there is not a single storm on record that was first designated a TC east of 60W after 10/9 that went on to make landfall in the contiguous 48 of the U.S. The latest developer occurred in 1887 (#13) on 10/9. Since Tomas was designated on 10/29, it would be 20 days later than the latest on record that formed east of 60W if it were to somehow hit the lower 48. If I were in FL, I wouldn't be worried/hopeful (depending on one's perspective).

[cycloneye]

Uncontaminated set of obs with very high readings both at flight level ans SFMR.

114700 1330N 05844W 6964 03161 0110 +056 +002 130062 067 050 015 00
114730 1332N 05844W 6992 03129 0111 +057 +002 131058 059 054 022 00
114800 1334N 05844W 6968 03156 0105 +059 +002 126058 061 056 022 00
114830 1336N 05844W 6960 03167 0107 +057 +002 138053 056 055 028 00
114900 1338N 05845W 6978 03139 0103 +056 +003 142064 068 052 022 00

[Gustywind]

For those who are interrested here is the latest weather forecast for Guadeloupe edited at 6AM. We just have a nice line of showers....

Regional service of Guadeloupe
Meteorological attentiveness Guadeloupe YELLOW LEVEL for " STRONG RAINS/THUNDERSTORMS "

Current situation and Observations
The cyclone " Tomas " - at the moment of category 1 cane is situated in the Southeast of the Lesser Antilles, near the island of the Barbados. Its movement the West Northwest should pull on our regions a sensitive deterioraton of the weather conditions.

Forecasts
Today on Saturday, the sea racks itself and becomes strong: average hollows of 2m50 in 3meters, even 3m50 in the evening, form by swell of Southeast. All coasts exposed to the South and in the East will be including allocated banks
of La Pointes des Chateaux as well as La Désirade, Marie Galante and Les Saintes.
In Caribbean, the sea is shaken with hollows reaching 2meters, even more, in the evening of Saturday.
The sea should ease then very gradually on Sunday.
On Saturday afternoon and during the next night, rain and thunderstorms will become more frequent and rainy accumulations of the order of 50 liters / m ² in 3 hours are expected. These rain values decreases gradually
on Sunday in the course of day.
The East winds at East-south-east should also accelerate to reach sustained winds 28 to 33 Knots (50 to 60 km/h) on Saturday evening and gustwinds 35 to 50 Knots (65 to 90 km/h) under thunderstorms. The wind decreases gradually on Sunday, remaining however moderated in rather hardly.

Comments/ Consequences
Because of a possible variation of the trajectory or the intensity of the cyclone "Tomas", we recommend you to remain attentive to our weather forecasts.

Summarized
The risk of emergence of the phenomenon is moderate. The expected impact is moderated.

Validity - duration of Phenomenon
From October 30th, 2010 till 10:00 am on October 31st, 2010 at 6:00 pm
Next bulletin: on Saturday, October 30th, 2010 at about 6:00 pm
INDIVIDUAL MEASURES OF BEHAVIOR VALIDATED IN THE SPECIFIC MEASURES " METEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA " ORSEC" BE CAREFUL " YELLOW ATTENTIVENESS STRONG RAINS PREFECTURE OF GUADELOUPE
Bulletin of follow-up N °: 3
Episode N 20-GD
From October 30th, 2010 till 07:30 am
Regional service of Guadeloupe
BP 451 - 97183 ABYMES cedex
Inquire of the meteorological situation and be particularly careful:
- If you have to practise sports at outdoor risk.
- If your outdoor activities are situated in an exposed(explained) zone, on earth(ground), in particular in mountain, near
Streams, as offshore also.
- If you have to circulate in flood-risk areas;
- In case of thunderstorm: avoid the use of telephones and electric devices. Do not shelter in woody zone, right by pylons or posts.
Collective measures could be possibly recommended later by the Prefect.

[cyclonic chronic]

so the weather service of guadelope is already calling it a cat 1? reading a few posts above it seems some of the islands are not happy with the NHC for not classifying this sooner. i think when they go back over this after season they'll make it a t.d. about 12 hrs earlier on the offical track. hope all in the islands are safe and werent caught completely off gaurd.